063
FXUS64 KJAN 011715 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Today:

Today should be the last day in the current heat event in terms
of headlines. The thermal ridge south of the boundary will support
reaching Heat Advisory criteria (HI of 105+), and wouldn`t be
surprised if we see a few locations reach extreme heat criteria
(HI of 110+), but considerable diurnal convective coverage will
limit the duration and will hold off on another extreme heat
warning. Will once again need to monitor for strong/severe wind
gusts potential during peak heating.

Saturday through Thursday:

The much anticipated reprieve from the dangerous heat is still on
track as westerlies suppress and split the subtropical ridge over
our region. This will allow temperatures/humidity to return to
more typical mid summer values and bring a much needed break from
the high levels of heat stress for the weekend through early next
week. As we go into the mid/late week, there may be some
rebuilding of the ridge to our west, but it appears the largest
heat anomalies should stay mainly to our west. Below normal
rainfall is also being indicated by most guidance with
anticyclonic flow and subsidence being the primary influences, but
climatology favors decent coverage of diurnally driven convection
over east/southeast MS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Thanks to a slow-moving frontal boundary sinking southeast
through the area today, a mix of VFR/MVFR flight categories are
prevailing, and will continue to prevail through the 18Z forecast
period, at area TAF sites. Convection will again be possible
across areas mainly along and south of a line from the Golden
Triangle area to Vicksburg this afternoon. If observed on-
station, categories will briefly be reduced to MVFR/IFR status due
to restricted visibilities and/or low ceilings. This activity
will quickly erode after sunset as daytime heating wanes. Gusty
winds will be possible with the most intense convection, but
frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours will accompany
nearly all of today`s activity. Winds this afternoon ahead of the
boundary will generally be from west northwest between 5-8 knots,
but will become more northerly in the wake of the front`s passage.
Toward day break Saturday, a period of MVFR ceilings will be
possible as a result of low stratus developing across the area. By
midday Saturday, ceilings will begin improving back to VFR
status. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  89  71  91 /  30  60  20  30
Meridian      73  89  71  88 /  40  70  30  50
Vicksburg     73  90  70  93 /  30  50  10  10
Hattiesburg   75  92  73  92 /  50  80  30  60
Natchez       73  90  70  92 /  40  60  10  20
Greenville    71  88  68  90 /  20  20  10  10
Greenwood     73  89  69  91 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ027>033-035>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

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