251
FXUS64 KJAN 200214
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Mainly just high clouds streaming across the ArkLaMs this evening
and expect this to continue into the overnight hours. Stratus
will develop once again across most of the area during the late
overnight hours and continue into the morning hours. Some patchy
fog will also be possible during the early morning hours mainly
across the Pine Belt Region. Lows temperatures overnight will
range from the low 60s in the east, to the upper 60s across the
Louisiana Parishes. /15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Tonight through Sunday Night:

The region will remain on the western periphery of a ridge aloft
centered just off the Florida/Georgia coastline. This, as high
pressure at the surface likewise remains wedged into the forecast
area from the west. This will result in continued south to
southwest flow across the region tonight through Sunday, which
will continue to lead to warm and humid conditions during the
period.

Lows tonight will fall into the 60s as low stratus again develops
across much of the area toward day break Sunday, with high clouds
continuing to stream east overhead. Stratus will eventually erode by
late morning/early afternoon on Sunday.  South winds will remain
breezy as they sit sustained around 15 knots, gusting between 20-25
knots at times.  Highs will again be warm as they top out in the
middle 80s.

Rain chances will enter the forecast over mainly central and western
portions of the CWA late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  A low
pressure system will lift north northeast from the southern plains
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes Region
Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night.  As a surface low does
likewise, it`ll send a cold front east into the CWA, where it`ll
eventually stall over northern portions of the area.

Thunderstorms developing along the front will be possible Sunday
evening and night as the front moves into the area and eventually
stalls.  An isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind
gusts can`t be ruled out over far northwest portions of the CWA
during this time.  This is primarily due to the presence of
sufficient deep-layer wind shear over the region. However, forcing
is lacking and instability will be waning into the night. Therefore,
this isolated severe potential continues to look limited to the
before mentioned area. Further east into early Monday morning, look
for mainly light warm-advection showers to be possible over the
remainder of the CWA. /19/

Monday through Saturday:

The rest of the week is looking a lot more typical of late spring
and early summer for the Gulf Coast region. A zonal split flow
pattern will be in place across the CONUS with a fairly decent
subtropical jet stream over the Eastern Pacific and Northern
Mexico. This flow pattern and the presence of upper-level and
surface ridging around the Southeast U.S. will deflect fronts and
stronger forcing mechanisms to our north. Additionally, the
influx of moisture into the Gulf Coast will keep afternoon
instability in the mix. Forecast values this far out are subject
to change, but daily afternoon SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg are
expected, with average deep-layer westerly wind shear of around
20-30 kts throughout the whole week. Subtle disturbances in the
southern jet stream could provide additional organizing potential
to storms at times. For now, the confidence on any particular day
or location to highlight for severe weather potential is too low
for graphical messaging. But it`s worth noting that strong to
severe thunderstorms could develop in this region during the week
ahead. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain would be the
primary hazards from such storms. Nighttime and daytime
temperatures are expected to run about 10 degrees warmer than
normal for late April. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

All TAF sites are VFR this evening and this will continue into the
overnight hours. With moist southerly flow expect stratus to
develop after 09-10Z once again, with most sites becoming MVFR.
The stratus should burn off by mid-morning, with a return to VFR
conditions after./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  66  87  68 /   0   0  10  20
Meridian      88  62  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     88  68  86  69 /   0   0  20  40
Hattiesburg   87  65  86  66 /   0   0  10  20
Natchez       86  68  85  69 /   0   0  20  30
Greenville    86  67  85  66 /   0   0  20  80
Greenwood     87  66  86  68 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/