695
FXUS64 KJAN 061739
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Not much change has been made in the forecast for the morning
update. Local radar scans continue to show an MCS continuing to
propagating eastward from OK to AR this morning. Even so, the
outflow/remnants could help with storm redevelopment across
eastern portions of our CWA later this afternoon. Morning CAM
guidance shows this system weakening before it reaches the MS
River by late afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out for northeastern portions of our area. Otherwise,
weather conditions will be relatively quiet this morning. A quick
look at GOES 16 visible satellite shows low/mid clouds building
from the north. Afternoon highs are expected to peak into the low
90s areawide. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Through Tonight: This morning our area is at the interface
between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending
from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of
more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to
New England. This should result in generally drier conditions over
central and southern portions of the area with more opportunity
for passing shortwaves to result in shower activity over the
northern portion of the area. For today, most CAM guidance
suggests suppression will win out in most areas with mostly dry
conditions over the coming 24 hours, except along the US 82
corridor and over northeast/far east MS where there is greater
potential for development. The key mesoscale feature in the near
term will be an MCS evolving eastward from OK into AR early this
morning. Most guidance weakens this system before it reaches the
MS River, but even so, the outflow/ remnants could serve as a
focus for redevelopment farther east this afternoon. Given
marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong
instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly
northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper
ridging. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.

This weekend: The ridging will begin to retreat with the more
active mesoscale storm track nudging further southward into our
area potentially as early as late morning Saturday. During the
time period from Saturday through Sunday and potentially
continuing into Monday, multiple periodic convective complexes are
expected to traverse our area, with potential for severe storms
given instability that is strong at times and deep shear that will
be generally sufficient. Within this type of regime, convection
may persist into nighttime and early morning periods given
lingering moderate instability within our muggy airmass. Again,
damaging winds will be the greatest threat with any severe storms.
We will continue to highlight severe potential during this time
frame in the HWO graphics.

Next work week: A front will sink southward and stall across the
Deep South. While this will provide some level of heat/temp relief
over much of the area, it will also keep greater rain chances
around through the remainder of the forecast period, with higher
coverage generally more favored during the daytime periods.

Heat stress: Before rain and the approaching front provide a
break from the current above average temps and humidity, heat
indices will have the potential to breach the triple digits both
today and Saturday. The experimental NWS HeatRisk is highlighting
the potential for greater impacts especially along and south of
I-20. Given these factors including the early season timing and a
weekend period in which people are more likely to be outdoors, we
will highlight a limited heat stress threat over roughly the
southern half of the area. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
VFR conditions and mostly light southwest wind will prevail
through the forecast period. Sub-VFR categories associated with
any shra/tsra activity this aftn/evng GLH-GWO-GTR corridor would
be brief. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  75  93  74 /  20   0  20  20
Meridian      93  72  94  74 /  30  10  30  30
Vicksburg     93  75  94  75 /  10   0  10  20
Hattiesburg   95  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
Natchez       91  74  91  74 /  10   0  10  10
Greenville    91  75  92  73 /  20  20  40  60
Greenwood     92  75  92  73 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/