


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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891 FXUS64 KJAN 040558 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Through mid to late next week (Thursday)... Dangerous heat stress remains a concern beginning this Independence Holiday weekend and increasing through next week. Be sure to stay cool and hydrated, and use sunscreen if enjoying the day outdoors. 1018-1020mb sfc high situated over the OH Valley will gradually propagate to the east over the next several days, with 592DM 500mb ridge building eastward. Upper level flow will migrate to a cut-off low over the Atlantic seaboard east of the FL Peninsula, where a potential tropical disturbance has a medium chance of development over the next couple of days. Flow will gradually shift easterly to more southerly by late weekend into early next week. Moisture will be remain most confined to the southwestern third of the area, generally southwest of a line from Vicksburg to Natchez. Morning GOES East water vapor total precipitable water (PWs) indicate 1.6 to 1.9 inches, where the area of rain and isolated storm chances will reside today. As the ridge builds eastward into the Mid MS Valley, the cutoff low will retrograde westward in the northern Gulf. Expect moisture to continue to build in, closer to 2 inches into early to middle portion of next week. The main messaging concerns remains to be the increased heat stress building in this Independence Holiday weekend and worsening across the area into next week. Seasonably warm highs, some 3-6F above (92-97F), are expected through the weekend and into the following week. This combined with return flow, boundary level dewpoints will peak in the 72-77F range during the work week. With some drier air around into early weekend, some mixing could occur (sfc dewpoints in the 67-70F range today through Saturday), helping keep peak aftn heat indices east of Interstate 55 in check (96-100F today and 101-104F Saturday). Confidence remains in keeping the ongoing "Limited" heat graphic going through the mid to late portions of next week. A gradual expansion of the threat area and potential for heat headlines may be needed by middle of next week. Increased convergence and rain and storm coverage will in the 15-45% range both Sunday and Monday, shifting out of the Pine Belt to areawide into next week, and 35-70% by Wednesday to Thursday. This could keep highs staying in check near seasonable levels but dewpoints will still remain high, so heat concerns will remain, even at times in mid morning to near noon before convective initiation. Lastly, with daily diurnal convection and trough/shear axis dropping southward, combined with favorable lapse rates and northwest flow/shear, some stronger to isolated severe storms can`t be ruled out by mid to late next week. Both will have to be assessed on day-to-day basis. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period with a light northerly wind./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 72 95 73 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 94 72 95 72 / 0 0 10 0 Vicksburg 94 73 96 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 95 73 97 73 / 10 0 30 10 Natchez 93 72 95 74 / 30 0 10 0 Greenville 93 72 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 72 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/KP