618
FXUS64 KJAN 171136 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
636 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Today and tonight...

The severe potential should come to an end around 5am morning
with early morning radar scans showing a line of showers and
storms north of Hwy 82 propagating east towards Alabama.
Additional shower and thunderstorm development will continue later
this morning as the stalling frontal boundary sags into central
MS. Rain chances will start to diminish across our CWA later this
afternoon as the stalled frontal boundary start to slowly drag
south of I-20. Isolated severe storms will redevelop across our
forecast area later this evening into tonight with afternoon highs
peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Depending how the rain pans
out later this afternoon, it is possible that a couple of areas
along and south of I-20 could see heat indices around 100 degrees.
Regardless, the "Marginal" risk will continue to be advertised
for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. No changes have
been made to the severe graphic for tonight and a "Slight" risk
will continue to be advertise for portions of the Delta including
portions of southeast Arkansas.

Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with
rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1.25 inches with local higher
amounts possible especially for areas along and north of Hwy 82.
Given that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash
flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Sunday through the Late Week...

The chance for marginally severe thunderstorms will continue Sunday
through late Monday evening as the frontal boundary stalls just to
the north of our CWA. Quiet weather conditions will occur across
the area early Tuesday morning as future global guidance continues
to show the ridge axis beginning to slowly push east away from
our forecast area giving us a small little break from the rain.

A significant 1004mb low pressure system hovering over the Central
Plains will push east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday
afternoon/evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas
will track east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening.
This combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf, a mid-
level jet moving into the area along with an unstable airmass in
place will help increase bulk shear. This will allow for organized
convection across our whole forecast area. Because of this, SPC
has upgraded to a 30% severe weather potential for Tuesday with
higher confidence for northern portions of our CWA. There is still
alot of uncertainty in regards to both the hazards and timing as
this system is still several days away. We will keep you updated
on any changes as we get closer.

Storm chances will continue heading into early Wednesday morning as
the cold pushes southeast across our forecast area. Rain chances
will start to diminish across the region looking ahead into
Wednesday afternoon/evening with quiet conditions prevailing across
our CWA by Thursday as the cold front tracks southeast out of our
forecast area towards the Gulf Coast giving us a nice little break
from the rain. Weather conditions will remain quiet heading into
Friday with mostly to partly sunny skies by the weekend. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

SHRA & TSRA ongoing across the area, drifting south of Hwy 82
corridor. Variable ceilings, visibility & gusts >30mph possible
with any TSRA. Chances for impacts from thunder will decrease by
17/15-17Z Saturday. Some lowered ceilings have fallen to MVFR in
spots & will lift to VFR by 17/14-16Z Saturday. Additional
SHRA & TSRA development is on tap after 18/00Z Sunday, with
MVFR/IFR ceiling & vsby reductions from 18/08Z Sunday through the
end of the 12Z TAF period. /NF/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  90  71 /  50  20  10  10
Meridian      89  70  91  70 /  60  30  10   0
Vicksburg     90  72  90  71 /  40  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   93  72  94  71 /  20  10   0   0
Natchez       89  72  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
Greenville    89  72  88  73 /  20  40  30  20
Greenwood     90  72  90  72 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/NF/DC