520
FXUS64 KJAN 230203 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
903 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

598DM 500mb ridge is centered over the Appalachians, with a weak
easterly wave across the northern Gulf. This combined with deep
moisture around 1.8-1.9 inches, aided in continued showers and
storms storms today with a majority winding down. With low level
moisture across the region and dewpoints hovering in the low 70s
overnight, lows will be some 3-8F above normal (72-75F). Another
round of fog is possible in the Interstate 59 corridor, with low
dense fog probs. There are indications of some lows falling below
crossover temps, some 2-4F below, but confidence is low much more
than 3F below due to elevated moisture in the boundary layer. Any
areas that received some rain and low-lying river valleys will be
the most vulnerable. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Persistent heat/humidity is expected through the forecast period
as 591-594mb upper-lvl ridge situates over the southeast CONUS and
gradually shifts eastward towards the end of the period.
Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 90s and gradually
warming to the mid-90s by the weekend. Low/mid 90 high temps
combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices are expected
to range between 105-110 F. With that being said, today`s heat
advisory was extended into Monday and additional heat advisories
may be warranted over the upcoming days. Overnight lows are
expected to drop to the lower 70 to offer some relief from the
heat. Patchy fog will be possible in eastern/southern MS during
early morning timeframe.

Summertime showers/t-storm (PoPs ranging from 15-30% across
central/southern portions of the area) will possible with maximum
daytime heating throughout the week. Once the ridge migrates east,
PoPs (estimated to be 30-70% areawide) are expected to increase as a
shortwaves disturbance moves along the periphery of the ridge. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Some brief vsby restriction from TSRA remain possible at HEZ but
should wind down by 23/01Z Monday. VFR conditions will prevail
into the overnight hours. However, flight categorical reductions
are psbl (IFR vsby) from patchy fog/BR with highest confidence at
MEI, PIB and HBG. Even more restrictive LIFR vsby can`t be ruled
out, especially at HBG and PIB from 23/10-12Z. Any flight
reductions should improve to VFR at all sites by 23/13Z.
Additional convective development and TSRA are psbl between
23/19-23Z. Confidence is enough to introduce low probs (20-45%)
at MEI, HBG and PIB during this time. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  92  73  94 /  10  30  10  20
Meridian      72  94  72  96 /  10  30  10  10
Vicksburg     74  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   74  95  73  97 /  10  50  10  30
Natchez       73  92  73  93 /  20  20  10  20
Greenville    74  93  75  94 /  10  20   0  10
Greenwood     74  95  75  96 /  10  30   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025>037-
     040>044-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/SW/DC