062
FXUS64 KJAN 181953
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
253 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Tonight through Sunday night: A persistent southerly flow weather
pattern will continue this weekend with the center of a warm
subtropical high shifting slowly eastward across the southeast
CONUS. Mild nights and warm days will continue with gusty wind
peaking during the daytime. Sunday night, a significant shortwave
trough crossing the Central Plains to Mid MS Valley region will
send a weakening cold front into our forecast area. Most of the
energy associated with this will be deflected around our area by
the ridge, but there will be enough moisture convergence for a few
storms. Given the weakening lift and modest instability/deep
layer shear, the potential for any severe storms is very limited
and confined mainly to the upper ArkLaMiss Delta. /EC/

Monday through Thursday night: The weather can be best described
as unsettled for much of next week. A weak frontal boundary will
reside over the Deep South and serve as a focus for moisture and
limited instability with shower and thunderstorm chances
persisting each day. The challenge will be determining if/when we
will encounter an organized storm threat and the potential for any
strong/severe storms. As of now there are not specific times we
are focusing on in the synoptic pattern, and can imagine that
mesoscale influences will have a lot to say about how deep
convective threats evolve, so will continue to monitor trends in
the guidance. In any case, there are no significant signals
showing up in the convective parameters for severe weather/heavy
rainfall. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Low stratus will continue to slowly erode across the area early
this afternoon, with ceilings improving. This will eventually give
way to VFR flight categories at area TAF sites through the
remainder of the afternoon into this evening. Winds will be breezy
from the south today, and generally sustained between 10-15 knots
with gusts around 25 knots at times, especially across the Delta
region, KGLH & KGWO. Winds will subside a bit this evening, but
will generally remain between 5-10 knots areawide, with low
stratus again developing across the majority of the area toward
day break Saturday and reducing categories to MVFR status. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  88  65  86 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      63  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     67  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   65  87  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       67  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    67  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     67  87  67  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/19