276
FXUS64 KJAN 251947
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
147 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and
    continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

  - Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for
    northwest portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Tonight through Thursday Night...

Weather conditions will be generally quiet later tonight across our
entire CWA. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/low 50s
areawide. Wednesday will remain quiet as near term guidance shows a
strong frontal passage tracking southeast over our forecast area.
Afternoon highs will peak in the upper 50s/low 60s areawide. Quiet
and seasonably cooler weather conditions, 5-8F below, will occur
across the southeast region late this week on Thanksgiving into late
week (Thursday into Friday) thanks to mean northerly
flow/subsidence, 1028-1032mb sfc high propagating southeastward
across the area, and PW less than half inch.

Model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro are still showing
tonight and Thursday night being the coldest periods with nighttime
temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A couple of areas along and east
of i-20 could see overnight lows drop to below freezing Thursday
night, with a light frost/freeze possible by late Thursday
night/early Friday morning timeframe. /CR/

Friday through next week Tuesday...

Quiet conditions will continue through Friday evening as the 1032
sfc high begins to propagate eastward towards the Carolinas. Looking
ahead into the weekend, future guidance is still highlighting quite
an active weather pattern developing over much of the central CONUS.
A major longwave trough axis is forecasted to set over the Rockies
into the Plains while a strong ridge builds up over the East Coast.
This will help place our CWA in favorable deep southwest flow aloft
for multiple rounds of showers and storms. At the moment, global
models are still showing increasing potential for heavy rainfall to
develop, with greater potential over the ArkLaMiss Delta region.
Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several days. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Local radar scans are currently showing scattered showers and storms
over the east and southeast half of the area. As of 1812Z, GLH,
GWO, GTR and HBG are reporting MVFR ceilings. GTR is currently
under IFR ceilings due to -SHRA and a low stratus cloud deck.
Conditions will begin to gradually improve to from the west this
afternoon by 21Z Tuesday as the cold front continues to move east
across the area. Ceilings will continue to improve to VFR by 23Z
Tuesday and VFR ceilings will prevail through the end of the TAF
period. Winds will be out of the west before shifting to the north
by 06Z Wednesday. A brief period of low level wind shear will be
possible across GTR between 08Z - 10Z Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       50  60  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      50  63  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     49  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  69  38  62 /  20   0   0   0
Natchez       50  62  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    45  55  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     45  56  33  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

CR