182
FXUS64 KJAN 230145 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
845 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Rest of Tonight...Slightly drier air continues to settle into the
region this evening.  While convection across the south has
dissipated, a few mainly high clouds continue to linger over areas
along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.  This will erode over
the next several hours, with mostly clear skies tonight with lows
ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

This ongoing forecast is in good shape.  I`ve made some small tweaks
to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, but no
major changes will be made on this evening`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Afternoon update: All is generally on track and no significant
adjustments have been made to seven day forecast, nor the
forecast reasoning. Significant weather impacts will mostly be
limited to whatever intense convection can develop across southern
portions of the area this afternoon and again Saturday. And down
the road, we may be getting more concerned with fire danger
concerns after a stretch of dry weather. /EC/

Through Sunday: Relatively drier air continues to advance into
the region. The drier airmass will still allow for seasonably
warm days through this weekend, but it will also make for
pleasantly cooler mornings. No heat stress issues are anticipated,
with heat indices remaining below 100 in most areas even in the
middle of day. Closer to the front, there will still be potential
for isolated to scattered diurnal convection, across areas like
central LA, south MS, and far east MS.

Monday through Thursday: A reinforcing front will move across the
area Sunday night into Monday, bringing a more substantial push
of dry air along with a bit of a drop in temperature. By Tuesday
and Wednesday, high temps below 90 will become more common, and
most areas will have morning lows in the 60s. A few cooler spots
in north MS could even touch the upper 50s by Thursday morning.
Rain chances will be quite limited by Monday, though isolated
shower chances may return later in the week. With the increasing
dryness, we will need to pay greater attention to fire weather
concerns. Daytime RHs are forecast to fall as low as the 25-30
pct in some areas by Monday, and with stronger mixing in the dry
conditions, winds could become a relevant factor. Otherwise, no
other hazards are on the horizon in the long term portion of the
forecast. /DL/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

All sites are VFR this evening and this will continue through
the period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  94  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      69  93  70  93 /   0  10   0  20
Vicksburg     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  96  71  97 /  10  20  10  20
Natchez       70  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    67  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19