824
FXUS64 KJAN 040004 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
704 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

While some stray shower can`t be ruled out this evening, rain
chances across northeast Louisiana and far western Mississippi
have ended for this evening. Adjusted POPs with latest guidance
for tomorrow afternoon, with chance POPs once again from around
Bastrop to Brookhaven and areas southwest of that line. A light
north wind will re-inforce drier air across most of the remainder
of the area. Afternoon high temperatures for the Independence Day
holiday will be around 95 degrees +/- 2 degrees. In the more humid
air of our southwestern zones, heat index values could top out
above 100 degrees. Otherwise, most locations will see peak heat
index values near 100. Be sure to stay cool and hydrated, and use
sunscreen if enjoying the day outdoors. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Through Wednesday: A 1020mb high to our north will shift east
through Friday while a large 592dam ridge just to our west does the
same. Going into the weekend the ridging surface and aloft will
allow temperatures to warm to the mid 90s. Lingering dry air looks
to limit greater heat risk initially, though heat indices still look
to be in the triple digits in the west and in river valleys.
Confidence in the increase in heat stress this weekend into next has
prompted the issuance of a "Limited" heat graphic for heat index
values around 105F for Saturday. By early next week, moisture
recovers, while flow becomes westerly. Heat indices may approach
heat thresholds (105-110), but with the increase of rain chances (40-
60%), will have to assess heat risk day to day. Additionally, some
potential severe risk will have to be assessed day to
day...especially Tuesday and Wednesday when global models suggest a
couple of disturbances dropping through the region from the
northwest during prime heating. Otherwise, expect seasonal daily
diurnally driven convection to continue early to mid next week.
/SAS/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions and generally light winds from the north should
prevail at all sites through the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  93  72  96 /   0  10   0  10
Meridian      69  94  71  95 /   0   0   0  20
Vicksburg     74  94  72  96 /  10  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   73  96  73  97 /  10  10   0  40
Natchez       74  92  72  94 /  10  30   0  20
Greenville    72  93  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     71  94  72  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/06