302
FXUS64 KJAN 171853
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
153 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected through at least
  the middle of this week.

- Chances for afternoon storms will increase, and the risk for
  dangerous heat will decrease late this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026


An especially intense subtropical ridge axis will maintain it`s
position over our region through mid week. A hot low level thermal
ridge axis (e.g., H850 T up to 24 deg C) will support high
temperatures approaching 104 deg F in the ArkLaMiss Delta region,
and the 100 to 103 deg F range elsewhere. A few record high
temperatures will likely be broken, and heat indices will be hot
enough to meet extreme heat warning criteria in spite of greater
mixing. Have maintained the elevated to significant heat graphics
for today through Wednesday and maintained an extreme heat
warning for most of the area today, with the expectation that
additional advisories/warnings will be needed. Additional heat
related messaging will likely be needed beyond Wednesday.

Later this week and into the weekend, there continue to be
indications that strong westerlies will increase over the
northeast CONUS. Global models have trended more aggressive with
their solutions of suppressing and weakening the ridge, and thus
allowing for greater convective rainfall chances in our area. In
addition, with the increased mid level flow and lapse rates being
forecast, this could be a time to monitor for marginal to slight
organized severe weather threats, especially per recent NCAR AI-
NWP guidance in the Wed-Fri time frame.

It is also worth noting, the possibility for isolated strong
storms over the next several days mainly during the afternoon into
the evening as the combination of vertical totals 27+, lifted
index of near -2C and dewpoints in the low 70s any storm that does
manage to organize and break through the cap could overachieve
previous forecasts warranting the issuance of future products.
/EC/KP/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Isolated SHRA or TSRA are possible near a few sites,
but confidence in occurrence or impacts is too low to mention in
TAFs at this time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78 101  77 100 /   0  10  20  10
Meridian      77  99  75 100 /   0  20  30  10
Vicksburg     78 100  77  99 /   0  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   77  99  77  99 /  20  40  30  50
Natchez       77 101  78 100 /   0  10  10  10
Greenville    78 101  78 102 /  10  10  10  10
Greenwood     76  99  76 101 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007-015-023-024.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ008-009-
     016-025-026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.

&&

$$

KP/EC/NF