395
FXUS64 KJAN 142052
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
352 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Through tonight: A warm ridge is in the process of building over
the forecast area in the near term with very warm temperatures
noted as highs have reached 90+ in a few locations. Strong and
gusty wind will subside this evening as we cool off, and then
expect quiet weather conditions overnight with mild overnight low
temperatures. Some patchy areas of fog will be a possibility,
especially over southeast portions of the area, but we`re not
currently expecting significant fog to be a concern. /EC/

Thursday through Tuesday: Not much has changed in the extended
forecast period. Quiet weather conditions will continue across our
forecast area on Thursday thanks to ridging aloft and high
pressure at the surface across the southeast region. Temperatures
will also increase around the Thursday timeframe with afternoon
highs forecasted in the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. Global
guidance continues to show the ridge axis flattening on Friday,
with quasi-zonal flow prevailing across the CWA through the
weekend. With this qusai-zonal flow expected across the region
heading into Friday, an unstable airmass will begin to move into
the region. This airmass, combined with a couple of upper-level
disturbances aloft and some northerly moisture flow from the
Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm chances across
central/northern portions of our CWA around the Friday through
Sunday evening/night timeframe. It is possible that some of these
storms could reach marginally severe limits across northern
portions of our forecast area including portions of southeast
Arkansas and north central Mississippi.

Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with
rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches. Given that this
system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash flooding
concerns will be low; however, some localized flash flooding
cannot be ruled out. This event is still several days away and
there is still a lot of discrepancies between model guidance
regarding the overall timing of this system. Trends will continue
to be monitored as we get closer.

Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work
week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet
conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a
slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden
Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions
will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as
future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push
east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from
the rain.

A low pressure system may move from the Central Plains toward the
Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/evening. The
associated cold front may combine with southerly moisture flow
from the Gulf to bring scattered showers/t-storm chances across
our entire CWA. Storm chances will continue heading into
Wednesday. /CR/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the forecast
period. Areas of low stratus/fog will be possible at southern TAF
sites by 08Z Thursday morning, lowering categories to MVFR/IFR and
brief periods of LIFR. Winds will continue to be
south/southwesterly with gusts of up to 25-30mph possible./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  90  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      65  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  91  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       70  90  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    70  89  74  89 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     69  89  73  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

EC/CR/KP