506
FXUS64 KJAN 162359 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
559 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end
    of this week.

  - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
    week as a frontal boundary moves into the region.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Rest of this evening...

A dry and quiet evening is expected across the region. Evening
synoptic analysis indicate mean ridge axis over the Plains but
slowly migrating eastward. Weak frontal boundary is sagging
southward, with clearing of clouds and drop in mean deep moisture
in GOES East satellite derived total precipitable water (0.5 to
0.6 inches to the north and 1.0 to 1.2 inches to the south). This
is driving some cloudiness to shift southward as the weak frontal
convergence/moisture ascent drifts southward. Sfc winds will shift
to more northeasterly overnight but remain light. The frontal
boundary will become more stationary, leading to return flow in
the west-southwest MS and northeast LA by daybreak. Lows will be
seasonably warm, some 5F to 10F degrees above in the Golden
Triangle in wake of front (46F to 51F) while 12F to 20F degrees
above elsewhere (52F to 62F). Areas along the MS River in
southwest MS and portions of northeast Louisiana have indications
of advection fog, combined with some crossover temps of 3F to 5F
and HREF probs (10 to 40 percent) and some duration of greater
than 3 hours, and potential of locally dense fog overnight. Based
on how last night panned out, holding off for now any HWO graphic.
Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Through late next week:

Upper ridging through much of the period will keep weather quiet and
promote much above normal temperatures, about 10-15 degrees (JAN
normal high is 68 for reference) with temperatures in the low to
even mid 80s by mid week. A weak dry cold front will sag into
northern areas tonight and will allow slightly cooler overnight lows
Monday morning in GTR (mid 40s). Thereafter, low temperatures will
be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Our next rainmaker looks to be in the Thursday into Friday time
frame. There is uncertainty regarding the evolution of this system,
with a range of scenarios possible. Generally, a few things could
happen. The front could be faster, more progressive. In this
scenario, shear would be stronger and upper forcing would better
support the front and storm organization. However, instability
would likely be weaker, with less time for recovery, which limits
stronger storm potential to the south.

Then, there is the slower scenario where the front hangs back west
Thursday and possibly into Friday and is slow to move across the
area. While this allows for more instability and better recovery of
airmass, upper forcing is departing the area, leaving a slower,
weakly forced front to drag across the area and weaker shear. This
also leads to rising heights in the wake of the shortwave. This
would likely be less organized and thus less severe.

Lastly, as shown in some AI guidance, the ridge could be strong
enough to deflect upper forcing to the northwest, in which case
organized storms are unlikely in our area. This is supported by AI
and ML probs as well, with severe probs trending west.

Perhaps of somewhat greater confidence appears to be the potential
for flash flooding. Some areas, particularly west I-55, could see
enough decent rainfall over a short period that flash flooding
cannot be ruled out. An anomalous plume of moisture (near 2 inch
PWAT), as well as deep warm cloud layer, should lead to efficient
rainfall rates. There is also the chance for training storms along
the boundary, so this may need to be watched closely. Additionally,
recent freeze has lead to dormant vegetation which could lead to
more runoff than during the warm season, so thresholds may be lower.
Also of note, if the front slows or even stalls, this could set up
an even worse case, with potential for rainfall totals to
accumulate over a certain area. This potential event still has a
lot of questions and uncertainty, so will continue to update in
future issuances. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Light northerly winds become easterly in the wake of frontal
boundary that becomes stationary into Monday. VFR conditions will
prevail at majority of TAF sites, except HEZ could see IFR to
LIFR vsby (BR or FG) and ceilings (stratus) around or just after
daybreak Monday (17/11Z through 14Z). VFR conditions will be the
norm afterwards through the rest of the 00Z TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  59  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      81  53  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     81  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   82  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       81  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    79  57  77  62 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     80  55  75  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SAS20/DC