180
FXUS64 KJAN 031756
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1256 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

The morning low stratus deck is beginning to break up as mixing
increases today. A somewhat tight surface pressure gradient will
support continued gusty winds today, albeit not as gusty as
yesterday. HREF probabilities keep odds of gusts to Wind Advisory
criteria very low, but we could still see plenty of gusts in the
30-40 mph range. Once again today, with the front stalled from
south AR into northwest MS, convection will fester near the
northwest corner of our area, with some highest potential for
this activity in our southeast AR and northwest MS areas this
afternoon. If we do get storms in these areas, they could be
severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail. Otherwise, for the
majority of our area it will be another warm, muggy, and breezy
day with near record high temperatures. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Today and Tonight...

Strong ridging aloft will remain wedged across the forecast area
from the east through tonight. This ridging will continue to
result in mainly quiet conditions across much of the forecast area
through the period. The exception to this will be across far
northwestern portions of the CWA, on the outer periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. There, a stalling frontal boundary to the
northwest, accompanied by ascent embedded in southwest flow aloft,
ample instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient
wind shear, will yield another afternoon and evening of
potentially severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case
across the Delta region, where a "Slight Risk" of severe storms
exists this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and quarter
to golf ball size hail will be the primary concerns with these
storms. While some showers and storms will be possible further
east along the Highway 82 corridor toward the Golden Triangle area
and southeast towards the Interstate 20 corridor, increased
presence of the ridge aloft currently looks to hinder severe storm
development in these areas.

A tight gradient lingering across the forecast area will again
result in breezy south winds today.  While not as consistently gusty
as those observed on Wednesday, winds today will still be sustained
at times between 20-25 mph, gusting to between 30-40 mph at times.
As a result, I`ve introduced a "Limited Threat" for strong winds
across the CWA for this afternoon.

Lastly, with the persistent breezy south winds, hot muggy conditions
will remain across the area.  Look for at to near record highs this
afternoon with temperatures ranging from the middle 80s to around
90, as the sun breaks out across much of the area this afternoon.
Then for tonight, another mild night is expected as lows only fall
into the low and middle 70s. /19/

Friday through Saturday...

The forecast for the extended period remains on track with no major
changes made to the overall forecast. Model consensus (mainly the
GFS and the NAM) do agree with the placement of this stalled cold
front looking ahead into Friday. The front is forecasted to stall
just north of our forecast area. Given the afternoon temperatures
forecasted in the upper 80s areawide for Friday, continuing daytime
heating will allow for a reinvigorate latent frontal instability.
This will allow for isolated severe storms for Friday
afternoon/evening roughly from Hamburg AR to northern Bolivar MS.
Primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail
up to quarter size. A few noticeable adjustments were made to the
severe graphic for Friday and the Marginal risk (1 out of 5) has
been expanded slightly further south to cover portions of
north/northwest MS including portions of southeast AR, and portions
of northeast LA. Storm chances will start to wane shortly after
sunset.

The cold front mentioned above will continue to stall across the
Lower Tennessee Valley Region looking ahead into Saturday. Guidance
is showing an upper level trough ejecting out of Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon. This will allow for the cold to shift slightly northward.
Meanwhile, a sfc low hovering over the Lower Tennessee Valley
Region, will help push the frontal boundary southeastward across our
CWA by Sunday morning. Expect widespread strong to severe t-storms
activity along and behind the front. Model guidance is starting to
get a little better regarding the evolution of this system. There is
still a lot of inconsistencies that exit between model guidance
regarding the timing of this system. For now, we are still confident
in a timeframe between Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Trends will continued to be monitored, and timing will be fine tuned
as we get closer to the weekend and forecast confidence increases.
Be sure to check back for changes in timing as the event draws
closer. A few adjustments were made to the severe graphic for
Saturday and the "Enhanced" Risk (3 out of 5) was trimmed from the
east and now covers areas mainly west of I-55. The atmospheric
environment appears favorable for severe storms given strong
southerly wind flow, dewpoints peaking in the low 70s across much of
our forecast area, SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg along with directional
shear with SRH over 300. Areas in the Enhanced risk will see wind
gusts up to 70 mph, and large hail up to golf ball size. Tornadoes
will be possible. Elsewhere, a "Slight" Risk covers areas along and
east of I-55. Main concerns for areas in the Slight risk will be
damaging wind gusts and quarter to golf ball size hail. Some of
these storms could train over the same area thanks to the stalled
cold front which could lead to localized flash flooding in a few
areas, especially areas with poor drainage systems. Rainfall trends
will continued to be monitored as we get closer and a flood graphic
could be introduced come Saturday if trends start to increase.

Sunday through early next week...

Global guidance does show a shortwave trough axis over the Southern
Plains pushing east towards the ArkLamiss region Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning with a few lingering showers/scattered t-
storms across portions of south/southeast MS. By Monday afternoon,
the trough will push through our forecast area. The support from
this trough axis should be enough to allow for the stalled cold
front to push south out of our area. Early next week will start off
with quiet weather conditions with lows in the mid 40s. Afternoon
highs will peak in the upper 60s/lower 70s. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon before lowering
to MVFR overnight as low stratus develops around 03Z. The
possibility for showers and storms will develop in the Delta
this evening but should remain clear of TAF sites. Winds will
remain southerly and quite gusty through the period with sustained
around 10-15kts and gusts generally less than 25kts at most TAF
sites. Fog will develop at southwestern TAF sites early tomorrow
morning briefly dropping categories and will dissipate soon after
sunrise as wind gusts increase./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  72  86 /   0  40  40  80
Meridian      70  85  69  86 /   0  30  30  60
Vicksburg     73  88  73  86 /  10  40  30  90
Hattiesburg   72  85  70  86 /   0  30  30  60
Natchez       73  88  74  85 /   0  30  30  80
Greenville    70  85  71  82 /  20  50  50  90
Greenwood     72  87  73  84 /  10  50  40  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/CR/19/KP