041
FXUS64 KJAN 010634
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
134 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Through tonight: We have one more day of higher rain chances
before we see a change in pattern ahead of the holiday. A surge of
moisture will remain pooled over the area ahead of a weak summer
type front. Isolated showers were already ongoing early this
morning in central MS, along with a broken line of storms across
west TN into north MS. This activity is expected to weaken through
the early morning hours but its associated outflows may help
trigger and focus redevelopment of showers and storms over our
area later today. CAM guidance suggests main timing for
development will be from mid afternoon and shifting southeastward
through the early evening. Given this time frame, there will be
ample time for heating and destabilization. While shear will be
subpar, it will be a bit stronger than typical background flow of
an average summertime day. These factors will result in potential
for a few storms to become severe with a threat for damaging wind
gusts. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, but storms today
appear less likely to stall given increased upper level flow, so
flooding appears less likely. Ahead of the rain, it will be quite
hot and humid again, with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range
possible across much of the area.

Wednesday through Monday: The weak front will move through tonight
into Wednesday, bringing a drier airmass to the region for the
4th of July holiday. While isolated convection cannot be ruled
out, mainly across south MS and central LA, most areas will remain
dry through the end of the week. As a result, there will be an
uptick in high temps, with upper 90s possible by Saturday.
However, as moisture begins to creep back in over the weekend,
heat stress will be an increasing concern. And chances for diurnal
convection will also begin to return. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Brief patchy fog or low clouds will be possible through around
daybreak, though confidence is not high enough to prevail at any
TAF site. Scattered SH and TS are expected, with brief
categorical reductions and gusty wind possible. Though most
coverage of convection will be from mid afternoon through early
evening, isolated activity is possible until that time. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF
period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  72  91  70 /  70  20  10   0
Meridian      92  71  91  68 /  70  30  10   0
Vicksburg     92  73  92  71 /  60  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   93  73  94  72 /  80  20  30   0
Natchez       91  73  90  71 /  60  20  20   0
Greenville    91  72  91  70 /  30  10  10   0
Greenwood     91  71  92  69 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL