Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
864 FXUS64 KJAN 121438 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 938 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Global guidance continues to highlight ridging over our forecast area which will allow for weather conditions to remain quiet through this afternoon. Cloud cover will be generally clear across our forecast area with a few mid/high clouds building from the west mainly for areas along and west of the MS River including portions of southeast Arkansas and all of our northeast Louisiana Parishes. A quick look at the GOES 16 visible satellite from this morning does show a few clouds beginning to move into the northwestern portions of our CWA. Southerly winds will occur across our entire forecast area through this afternoon with areas west of I-55 seeing gusts up to 20-25 mph. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the mid/upper 70s areawide. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 523 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Updates: The forecast remains generally on track with only a few minor updates made to the previous discussion. The main thing to note is the ceiling for Saturday continues to trend upward, with confidence increasing for significant severe weather. Enhanced low level convergence, along with very strong, favorable wind fields is increasing confidence for storms capable of producing strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. Today through Thursday: We begin with quiet weather under the influence of ridging in advance of a shortwave trough, which will eject across the southern CONUS this evening and promote an onset of rain and storms. While moisture return in response is meager, strong deep layer shear around 50 to 60 kts in the presence of steep mid level lapse rates (7 to 8c/km, 29-31 vertical totals) will promote hail, and a more conditional damaging wind threat in spite of less than ideal boundary layer conditions. Most guidance now indicate that at least isolated storms will develop, but the capping inversion should help keep coverage limited. Generally, areas further west have a greater chance of hail threat. Storms will migrate east mainly along/north of the Highway 82 corridor, and should clear the area by tomorrow afternoon with shortwave ridging in its wake ahead of the next system. A marginal risk continues to be highlighted for northern areas tonight through midday tomorrow. Friday and Saturday: Conditions continue to look favorable for a multi-day severe weather event Friday into Saturday. An upper low is progged to eject across the midwest Friday and in response a warm front will lift across the area. With much of the upper support displaced north of the area, the warm sector appears more suppressed initially for this round. That said, shear and instability appear ample even Friday for severe storms capable of all hazards. There could be perhaps a few supercells with all severe weather hazard types possible, including significant severe weather. The biggest question for this initial round is just how far north does the warm sector get with main upper support lifting well north of the area. As such, this event should be more conditional and confidence overall is lower than the more potent event likely Saturday. Storms could persist into the overnight hours. The longer wave trough ejects across the central CONUS Saturday and will elicit an even greater low level response with the arrival of more perturbed flow around the base of the trough, only adding to the already moist warm sector from Friday. As a result, dewpoints will be in the upper 60s across a broad area. Following a brief lull early Saturday morning, thunderstorms will likely initiate in the vicinity of the HWY 84 corridor associated with an advancing warm front. These storms should pose a threat for large hail initially with low freezing levels and strong shear and instability. The environment will quickly become supportive of significant severe weather by mid morning as a mid to upper jet, along with a 45kt low level jet, overspreads the area, resulting in strong deep layer shear. Long curved hodographs will favor supercellular mode and will carry a threat for all hazards, possibly significant hazards, including strong tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. With long curved hodographs present across much of the area, along and east of the Natchez Trace, a strong tornado threat will persist into Saturday afternoon as storms track east/northeast. As they mature, they will continue to maintain a tap into a favorable environment east of I-55. Threat looks to maximize in this area with the arrival of the midlevel speed max and a strengthening low level jet to around 60 kts Saturday afternoon. With things trending upward, significant severe weather is possible even away from the maximized area. The severe threat should end later Saturday evening as the cold front clears the area. There are additional secondary lower end threats for localized flash flooding and strong gradient winds as well and will continue to message this in HWO graphics. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area Friday in response to the surface low. Winds could gust 25 to 30mph ahead of storms. While fast storm motions limit greater flash flood risk, heavy rain rates could result in some localized flooding, and overall storm totals could result in eventual river flooding. All of this said, we are emphasizing more of the severe risk for Saturday as the ceiling for this event and overall severe weather confidence continue to increase. Should the environment verify and storms reach their full potential, a more significant severe weather event could occur. As mentioned previously, this will likely continue to be adjusted so continue to check back for updates. Early to mid next week: In the wake of the storms, calm weather returns with ridging gradually building back in. Temperatures should steadily warm into the upper 70s early next week. Around midweek, an upper trough will eject across the southern plains and will bring a chance for rain storms at the tail end of the long term period. /SAS/EC/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the TAF period. Southerly sfc winds will be gusty, sustained up to 15mph & gusts up to 20-25mph, during midday & afternoon time frame after 12/17-19Z Wednesday. Winds will lighten into the evening. Light rain showers (low probs in northern TAF sites of GLH, GWO & GTR) & MVFR ceilings will move in after 13/06-10Z Wednesday. Onset at HEZ will be the the earliest & elsewhere after 13/08Z Wednesday. Some ceilings may fall to IFR to LIFR & MVFR vsby/fog near daybreak Wednesday. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 59 80 59 / 0 20 20 0 Meridian 76 56 79 57 / 0 10 40 0 Vicksburg 77 60 80 58 / 0 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 79 57 83 58 / 0 10 10 0 Natchez 76 60 81 58 / 0 20 0 0 Greenville 75 60 76 59 / 0 40 10 0 Greenwood 77 59 77 60 / 0 50 30 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/SAS/EC/DC