618
FXUS64 KJAN 111132 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
632 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Today and Tonight: Although rain chances will return today in the
south, the main concern is the increasing heat stress in our west.
Our CWA will remain under the influence of a >591dam ridge while
surface ridging continues to nose back to the southwest across our
CWA. The ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain
chances across most of our CWA and allow temperatures to top out a
little warmer than normal. High temperatures today will top out in
the lower 90s across the eastern half of the CWA while the western
half tops out in the mid 90s. The 00Z Monday JAN sounding had a PWAT
of 1.84in. This is up from an inch and a half. Deep moisture will
continue to increase today with PWATs surging back above two inches.
The increasing moisture will lead to higher humidity that will
combine with the mid 90F temperatures resulting in peak heat index
values between 105F and 110F today in portions of our west. The
areas of greatest heat stress; "Elevated" areas are around the west
central and southwest portions of our CWA where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. The remainder of the area along and west of Interstate
55 will see peak heat index values near 105F and a graphic
advertising this "Limited" risk for heat stress will be carried
again today. /22/

Tuesday through the weekend: The forecast remains largely on
track, with heat continuing to be the primary hazard. The area
will continue to be under broad ridging through most of the week,
which will gradually build, peaking by week`s end. The increase in
moisture along its western flank will increase rain chances
across the area mid week, with highest chances focused in the
southeast. As the ridge shifts westward by the weekend, rain
chances will decrease and heat will increase. Heat headlines may
be eventually need to be expanded to cover more portions of the
area as heat indices climb to the 105-110 range. Next week, a
tropical system moving up near the eastern sea board will likely
break the heat as drier northerlies become established. There
could be a backdoor front associated with the system that could
break the heat even sooner for our east, but there is still
uncertainty regarding how far offshore in the Atlantic the
tropical system will be. This system does not look to impact our
area, in fact we probably stand to benefit./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For a brief period 12-14Z MVFR cigs wl be psbl at the east MS TAF
sites. Isolated to scattered TSRA are expected by 20Z across the
southern TAF sites. Away from any TSRA, VFR conditions wl prevail
until after 09Z. After 09Z MVFR cigs are expected over the eastern
TAF sites. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  74  92  74 /  30  20  70  20
Meridian      91  73  88  72 /  20  20  80  20
Vicksburg     94  75  93  74 /  30  30  60  20
Hattiesburg   93  75  90  74 /  40  30  80  20
Natchez       93  74  91  73 /  40  30  70  20
Greenville    94  75  93  74 /  10  10  40  20
Greenwood     95  74  93  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ047-048-053-060.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ016-024-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/22