125
FXUS64 KJAN 261732
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Rest of Today through next Wednesday...A mix of clouds and sun
this afternoon as a 591mb high pressure over the region continues
to move towards the northeast, allowing for a mid-lvl low to
migrate towards the west along the periphery of the ridge. Cloud
cover from morning convection will provide some relief from the
afternoon heat and humidity; however; heat indices could still
reach greater the 105 degrees in areas receiving more sun than
clouds. As a result, the heat advisory will continue through this
evening. As the low progress westward, afternoon heating with an
unstable airmass in place is expected to promote some organized
convected this afternoon and evening. A "Marginal" (1 out of 5)
risk for severe storms is in place across the CWA and damaging
winds are the primary hazard of concern.

Heading into the weekend: the ridge is expected to start flatten
over the southeast CONUS and a longwave trough will settle across
the northern CONUS. Afternoon showers/t-storm chances will continue
through the extended period as a frontal boundary is expected to
stall north of the area and the airmass remains unstable. In
addition to the stalled boundary, northwest flow may usher in some
shortwave disturbances throughout the week. Widespread rain chances
are expected (35-65% PoPs with best PoP chances east of I-55).
Temperatures aren`t expected to be as oppressive as dewpoint ranges
in the lower 70s and highs reaching the lower 90s. Depending on
cloud cover/rainfall received, heat indices could reach 105 degrees
or greater. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Flight categories will predominately remain at VFR categories
through the 18Z forecast period. The only "flies in the ointment"
will be the potential for scattered convection during the
afternoon and early evening hours, and the potential for patchy
ground fog and/or low stratus at a few TAF sites toward day break
Friday morning. If any of these are observed on station, flight
categories could be reduced to MVFR/IFR statuses for a short
duration. Winds this afternoon will be from the southeast between
5- 8 knots. These will subside to light to calm tonight, and will
become southwesterly around 5 knots by late Friday morning. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  72  92 /  20  40  10  30
Meridian      71  93  71  92 /  20  60  20  50
Vicksburg     73  93  74  93 /  10  20  10  20
Hattiesburg   72  93  73  94 /  30  60  20  60
Natchez       72  92  73  92 /  20  40  10  30
Greenville    74  94  74  93 /  10  10   0  20
Greenwood     73  94  74  94 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

SW/19