174
FXUS64 KJAN 211808
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1208 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Today and Tonight...

No changes have been made to the short term period and the overall
forecast remains the same. Dangerous cold conditions will continue
today over our forecast area this morning. Early morning
temperatures in the mid teens/low 20s and the north wind showing
wind chill readings in the teens at most locations with single
digits in the north. This is supported by early morning global
guidance still showing a 1040mb sfc high hovering over the Central
Plains starting to slowly track southeastward towards the Tennessee
River Valley Region. At the same time, the sfc ridge remains over
the central portion of our CWA. Because of this, the Cold Weather
Advisory will remain in effect for the whole CWA until noon today.
Although north winds will be slightly calmer this morning compared
to the previous day, cloud cover will build over the region this
afternoon from west to east. This increasing cloud cover will limit
daytime heating and help keep afternoon temperatures across portions
of north MS, northeast LA, and southeast AR in the upper 30s.
Elsewhere, daytime temperatures will peak in the low/mid 40s.

Friday night will see another round of dry and cold conditions as
the sfc ridge remains over central MS with nighttime temperatures
reaching below freezing across the area.

Saturday through the late week...

The forecast for the extended period remains on track with no major
adjustments made to the overall forecast. The sfc ridge will start
to shift off to the east looking ahead into the weekend. We will
begin to see a gradual warming trend of temperatures through Sunday.
Both the GFS and the NAM are still showing a southern stream
disturbance tracking southward near the Gulf Coast. Because of this,
chances for moderate rain will spread northward across areas mainly
south of I-20 from early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.
Although conditions will be rather cool Saturday evening, model
consensus does show temperatures rising overnight Saturday ahead of
the rain. This should help keep the precip in a liquid state.

The remnant of a sfc high will start to build along the Gulf Coast
to start off the new work week resulting in quiet weather conditions
across our area. Temperatures will also start to return to above
normal by the mid week thanks to an upper level ridge pushing east
across the ArkLaTex region. Future guidance is still showing a broad
low pressure system from the Central Plains shifting southward
towards the Tennessee Valley Region by Wednesday evening. This
should allow for decent rain chances (between 25-45%) across our CWA
heading into the late week. Rain chances will come to an end by
Friday with quiet conditions continuing into Saturday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites and this will continue
through the period. The winds will mainly be light out of the
northeast, but a few gusts to 20kts will be possible at GLH./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  27  52  30 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      46  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     43  27  50  30 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   49  29  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       45  28  51  33 /   0   0   0  20
Greenville    36  24  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     42  24  48  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15