810
FXUS64 KJAN 140141 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
841 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Rest of Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue
across the forecast area this evening.  As daytime heating wanes,
the bulk of this activity will gradually subside over the next few
hours.  However with the deeply moist airmass over the region and
multiple outflow boundaries meandering about the CWA, an isolated
shower can`t be ruled out during the overnight hours.  Some high
clouds will remain overhead tonight, with low stratus again forecast
to develop across mainly eastern and southern portions of the CWA
after midnight.  Lows will be mild and fall into the middle 70s.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  I`ll make some adjustments
to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends.
Otherwise, no major changes will be made on this evening`s update.
/19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Update: Dangerous heat will be the primary weather hazard concern
as we go through the next seven days. There is enough forecast
confidence to go ahead with another heat advisory for Thursday,
and in fact, we have expanded it based on the hotter observational
trends from today over much of the western 2/3rds of the area.

For this afternoon, we`re seeing a few strong to severe storms
with locally heavy downpours focus on the outer periphery of the
weak central Gulf Coast disturbance where deep moisture is
interacting with the hot and humid airmass, and also in response
to an outflow boundary now pushing into far western portions of
the area. The area in between, roughly from the I-55 corridor to
the MS River, could experience an uptick in convective potential
as we go into the early evening due to enhanced convergence
between the two aforementioned areas. Convective rainfall will
diminish and become minimal overnight. /EC/

Thursday through Tuesday: Heat continues to be the primary
hazard. Our area remains under the influence of a subtropical
ridge, which will gradually propagate westward along the southern
CONUS. A surge of tropical moisture on its western flank will
maintain rain chances through late week. As the subtropical ridge
propagates and builds westward over our area, heat indices will
steadily increase, while rain chances steadily decrease. Dewpoints
remain in the mid to upper 70s while temperatures climb to the
mid to upper 90s. Confidence continues to increase on the need for
expanded heat headlines to more portions of the area, with
perhaps a targeted extreme heat warning in the west, by this
weekend. Will maintain the HWO graphic depicting this this
weekend.

The good news is this heat looks to be short lived thanks to a
tropical system in the western Atlantic and a digging upper trough
over the northeast. This tropical system (Erin) becomes somewhat
phased with the upper trough over the northeast, helping to lock in
drier northerlies over the region. The push of drier air should
allow for deeper mixing in the afternoons, thus dewpoints dropping
to the low 70s with pockets of upper 60s. While there is still
uncertainty at this time considering moist fuels and anticipated
antecedent rainfall, this could open a window for a low end fire
risk next week, particularly with the combination of drier air and
hotter temperatures./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Scattered convection continues across mainly east and southeast
Mississippi this evening. This will lessen in coverage over the
next couple of hours, but a stray shower can`t be ruled out
overnight. Until then, if observed on-station, both ceilings
and/or visibilities could be reduced to MVFR categories for a
short period. Otherwise, VFR flight categories will prevail at
most sites this evening and into the overnight hours. Some low
stratus will be possible for a few hours early Thursday morning at
namely KGTR, KMEI, KPIB, & KHBG, reducing categories at these
sites to MVFR/IFR categories. These ceilings will improve to VFR
categories by 17Z, with VFR categories prevailing at area sites
through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds tonight will again
be light to calm. These will become southwesterly Thursday
afternoon, increasing to between 5-8 knots. Once again, convection
will develop across the area during the heat of the afternoon
Thursday. This will again briefly reduce categories to MVFR status
if convection is observed within a respected site`s aerodrome.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  94  74  94 /  50  70  20  60
Meridian      74  93  73  94 /  30  70  20  60
Vicksburg     75  94  75  94 /  30  70  20  60
Hattiesburg   76  95  75  95 /  40  60  20  50
Natchez       75  92  74  94 /  20  70  20  50
Greenville    75  94  74  93 /  30  60  20  40
Greenwood     74  95  74  94 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19