421
FXUS64 KJAN 110527
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1227 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Forecast elements were updated through the daytime, but no major
adjustments were made. Mostly clear and calm conditions are
expected through tonight with surface high pressure stretched over
our region. Like today`s cluster of showers and thunderstorm or
two in the Delta, a few showers or storms tomorrow afternoon
can`t be ruled out where PWAT values rise to near 1.5 inches.
Otherwise, most of the area should remain dry through the next 24
hours. Flow aloft will be out of the north, with flow at the
surface being generally light and variable in relation to the high
pressure center. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Tonight and Thursday:

Afternoon satellite imagery showed a well defined cu field nearly
along the Mississippi river where an axis of moisture resides.
Daytime heating of this moisture axis has led to a few light
showers showing up on local radars mainly over the delta region.
This convective activity is expected to remain over our delta
region and as far south as Vicksburg. This activity will also
dissipate by early evening. Also noted on satellite imagery was
the circulation around a shortwave trough to our east and a large
upper level ridge to our west. This will maintain northwest flow
aloft across our CWA through Thursday. There was a disturbance
within the northwest flow aloft over the central Plains that will
bring some mid and high level clouds across our CWA tonight into
Thursday but no rain is expected. As the upper level troughing to
our east continues shifting east, the large upper level ridging
over the central CONUS will shift east as well and become dominant
over our CWA. This will help continue our warming trend and allow
temperatures to top out warmer than normal; in the low to mid
90s. Our normal highs run in the upper 80s. In addition to the
ridging aloft, surface ridging from the northeast will continue
across our CWA. This will continue to limit the return of deep
moisture over our CWA and help keep morning lows slightly warmer
than normal as well. Our normal lows run in the mid 60s.

Thursday night through Tuesday night:

Thursday evening, the omega block with ridging over the central
CONUS and troughing over east and west will still be in place.
This pattern looks to last through Monday even as the ridge axis
shifts to become centered nearly over the Mississippi river. The
surface ridging from the northeast will continue over our region
as well. This will contribute to a warming trend through the
period with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s by Monday.
The surface ridge will continue to help limit moisture return and
although it will be hot, the lower relative humidity will mitigate
and heat stress concerns as peak heat index values look to remain
below 105F. The latest Drought Monitor showed abnormally dry to
moderate drought conditions across our northern zones. Without any
rainfall in the forecast along with the hot temperatures,
conditions are expected to worsen. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      92  67  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     94  69  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   93  68  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    94  68  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     95  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/22/KP