550
FXUS64 KJAN 070243 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Another quiet and mild night is expected as the severe threat for
northern parts of the area decreases for the evening. Since
convection doesn`t appear to be favorable, PoPs were lowered
Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 70s, which could
reach record warm low temps. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 452 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Through Tonight...

Today our area is at the interface between suppression associated
with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the
Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great
Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. This should result in
continued drier conditions over central and southern portions of the
area with more opportunity for passing shortwaves to result in
shower activity over the northern portion of the area. For today,
most CAM guidance suggests suppression will continue to win out in
most areas, except along and north of the US 82 corridor. The key
mesoscale feature in the near term will be the MCS moving eastward
from AR, which has produced small hail, and gusty (not damaging)
winds. The outflow/ remnants could serve as a continued point of
focus for redevelopment farther east this evening. Given marginally
supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few
severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern
portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging. Damaging
winds would be the primary threat.

Through the Weekend...

For Saturday, the main topic of conversation will be an MCS dropping
out of OK and tracking through the Ozarks. This system is expected
very energetic and while the central corridor/track of the most
damaging storms stays just to our north, our northern MS counties
will be on the periphery. This has triggered an Enhanced (3/5 Severe
Risk) for counties north of US 82, a Slight (2/5 Severe Risk) for
areas between US 82 and I-20, and a Marginal (1/5 Severe Risk) for
other areas. While the MCS will be the motivating factor for the
Enhanced and Slight areas, the Marginal areas are driven more by a
wealth of convective energy, and unimpressive capping. If one were
to investigate the forecast in these areas with some scrutiny it
would appear a bit paradoxical that our PoPs (Probability of
[measurable] Precipitation) don`t look substantial for tomorrow
(staying below 50% in the aforementioned ares), this is a reflection
of some needle-threading on our end. While PoPs and therefore
expected coverage are not high, what does develop is more likely
than not to be severe, with the primary threat being damaging wind.
So for the sake of messaging we elected to go with Enhanced/Slight
in those areas. For Sunday expect a more or less repeated situation.
Admittedly the dynamics and details shift a bit, but the overall
result (areas of concern for severe/thunderstorms/showers coverage)
will remain the same.

Next work week...

A front will sink southward and stall across the Deep South. While
this will provide some level of heat/temp relief over much of the
area, it will also keep greater rain and thunderstorm chances around
through the remainder of the forecast period, with higher coverage
generally more favored during the daytime periods.

A Quick Note about the Heat...

Summertime`s back and that brings a potential for heat risk. With
that in mind its time to start considering threats associated with
that risk. Triple digit heat indices can not be ruled out especially
in areas that see no or little rainfall today and tomorrow. NWS
HeatRisk is highlighting the potential for greater impacts
especially along and south of I-20. Given these factors including
the early season timing and a weekend period in which people are
more likely to be outdoors, we will highlight a limited heat stress
threat over roughly the southern half of the area; for today
and continue monitoring for tomorrow. /OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions & mostly light southwest sfc wind, generally up to
15mph sustained & gusts up to 20mph, will prevail through the next
24 hours. There could be brief MVFR stratus at central & southern
TAF sites. Confidence is just enough for introduction of MVFR
stratus tempo flight categorical restrictions at HEZ in the 00Z
TAF cycle. The onset of any low stratus would be around
07/11-14Z. Some additional showers & storms are psbl Saturday,
with higher confidence at GWO, GTR & MEI for low probs (20-50%)
between 07/18-23Z Saturday. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  93  75  88 /   0  10  30  60
Meridian      73  93  73  88 /   0  20  30  70
Vicksburg     75  94  75  89 /   0  10  20  50
Hattiesburg   75  96  76  94 /   0  20  10  60
Natchez       74  92  75  90 /   0  10  10  50
Greenville    75  92  72  87 /  10  30  50  50
Greenwood     75  92  72  88 /  10  40  50  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/DC