459
FXUS64 KJAN 230314 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Rest of Tonight...A shortwave moving east out of the Four Corners
region and into the southern plains, has resulted in a surface low
developing off the Southeast Texas coast this evening.  As this
shortwave continues its eastward trek into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley overnight, this surface low will shift east northeast
along the north central gulf coast.  This will cause both clouds and
rain to slowly spread east into the forecast area through day break
Sunday, particularly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.

The ongoing forecast is currently in good shape.  I`ll continue to
keep the forecast clear of any wintry precipitation, namely freezing
rain.  As light rain moves into areas namely along and south of the
Interstate 20 corridor and west of I-55 overnight, lows here
currently look to remain warm enough to keep precipitation in those
areas of all liquid form as mid 30s to around 40 are expected.
Current freezing rain probabilistic guidance supports this, as these
probs have lessened significantly since earlier today.  North of the
I-20 corridor and east of I-55, where lows will range from the mid
20s to lower 30s, light rain isn`t forecast to move into those areas
until after sunrise Sunday, when temperatures warm north of
freezing. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

Clouds begin to increase tonight ahead of a shortwave trough. This
will bring increasing rain chances from south to north as warm,
moist air is transported inland atop a stable boundary layer. Most
places will see rain with the better chances, and higher totals,
south of I-20. With temperatures near I-20 and northward falling to
near and below freezing overnight, automated, blended guidance has
intermittently returned the idea of freezing rain in some areas.
This appears to be in error; the colder guidance delays or
suppresses clouds and rain and the wetter guidance is
warmer/cloudier earlier. The spurious freezing rain chances have
thus continued to be eliminated from the forecast. To be clear,
freezing rain is NOT expected on Sunday. Rain ends later Sunday with
some areas around the highway 84 corridor likely seeing 1-1.5" total
accumulations. Though a rumble or two of thunder particularly south
of I-20 will be possible, neither flash flooding nor severe weather
are expected.

Sunday Night through Next Week:

With the frontal features this weekend remaining suppressed to our
south, we`ll see little in terms of noticeable airmass change as the
wet weather moves east. Another seasonably cool night is then on tap
Sunday night with temperatures near freezing north of I-20 and in
the mid 30s F to near 40 F to the south.

We`ll begin to rebound some on Monday with partly cloudy skies and
increasing heights aloft allowing afternoon highs to rise into the
low to mid 60s F. Surface high pressure weakens through the evening
and overnight and light surface trajectories back to westerly or
southwesterly which will help yield a much milder night Monday night
than we`ve seen recently with the entire area expected to not go
below freezing; mins in the 37-43 F range. The warming trend
continues amid further increasing heights and favorable boundary
layer trajectories through much of next week with highs rising day
over day Tuesday (lower 70s F) and Wednesday (upper 70s F).

The next cold front is expected on Thursday. This front will be on
the tail end of a cold airmass well to the north and removed from
substantial upper level support in addition to only moving through a
partially modified boundary layer airmass (dewpoints in the 50s F).
The likely timing of morning Thursday also increases confidence that
this activity will likely just consist of a band of showers; some
places may even remain virtually dry. The airmass behind won`t be
brutally cold, but we will notice a cooldown to finish the week;
highs Thursday will be in the 60s F for most but falling through
much of the day and overnight lows likely sneak down back into the
30s F for many though a freeze does not currently appear likely.
Airmass recovery begins quickly with temperatures Friday back into
the mid/upper 60s F. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites this evening
and through the much of the overnight hours. After midnight and
toward day break Sunday, rain will begin to increase across the
area, in addition to low stratus. This will result in flight
categories lowering to MVFR/IFR status, which will continue at
sites through the afternoon hours Sunday. Winds overnight will
generally be calm, but will become more east to southeasterly
early Sunday. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       35  47  37  63 /  40  90  20   0
Meridian      32  49  36  63 /  10  60  30   0
Vicksburg     36  46  36  63 /  50  90  10   0
Hattiesburg   39  49  39  64 /  50  90  50   0
Natchez       39  48  39  63 /  70  90  10   0
Greenville    31  49  34  59 /   0  20   0   0
Greenwood     30  52  34  62 /   0  30  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/