035
FXUS64 KJAN 051803
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

Tonight: Our CWA will remain at the base of a large nearly stacked
low centered over Ontario Canada through the period. A shortwave
rounding the base of this low will help send a cold front south
toward our CWA tonight. A surface ridge will continue to nose back
to the west across our CWA from the east. This low level south to
southwest flow will help to increase deep moisture across our region
ahead of the approaching cold front. Warmer than normal temperatures
this afternoon in the low to mid 90s will combine with the high
humidity to result in peak heat index values back above 100F.
Locations along the Mississippi river may see peak heat index values
near 105F. This will be the warmest afternoon through the next
several days as the cold front will bring relief. Dry weather is
expected today but as we go into this evening, rain chances will
increase from the north. The main focus for any severe weather along
and ahead of the cold front is expected to be north of our CWA but
this evening there may still be enough instability to support an
isolated threat of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail to quarter
size along our Highway 82 corridor with the strongest storms. /22/

The primary forecast adjustment, accounting for trends in latest CAM
guidance as well as regional observations, suggests storms could be
a bit slower to get going. The best chances for strong to severe
storms will likely be from around 10pm until 4am tonight. Overall,
the potential for severe weather remains conditional and the slower
trends would suggest any strong to severe storm would be short lived
and few in number as diurnal instability will be moving toward the
daily minimum. Nevertheless, a risk for damaging wind and/or hail as
large as quarters still exists in the outlooked areas./86

Morning lows will be above normal over most of our CWA but provided
the cold front pushes into our delta region prior to sunrise,
temperatures there may bottom out near normal. /22/

Saturday through next Thursday: A cold front will be in the process
of dropping southeast through the forecast area as day breaks on
Saturday.  This will result in ongoing scattered showers and storms
moving through the area during the morning and afternoon hours as
the front moves through.  High pressure will build into the region
in the wake of the front as it clears the CWA late in the afternoon.
This will advect some slightly cooler drier air into the region.
Highs will range from around 80 across the Delta to the lower 90s
across the Pine Belt region.  Some high clouds will linger across
the area during the overnight hours, as lows range from the lower
60s to around 70.

Slightly cooler conditions and drier air will continuing advecting
south into the CWA Sunday into Sunday night under north to northeast
flow. Overall, quiet weather with slightly below normal late summer
conditions will exist across the CWA Sunday through Monday night.
Highs during this time will struggle to get out of the 80s, as lows
both Sunday and Monday nights range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Quiet weather will persist through the remainder of the forecast
period, Tuesday through Thursday.  Mid/upper level troughing will
slowly slide east through Thursday, allowing ridging aloft to
gradually build into the region from the west.  Temperatures will
begin moderating up a bit each day beginning Tuesday and continuing
through Thursday.  Some small rain chances will creep back into the
forecast late in period, but currently look confined to mainly
Southeast Mississippi, where a little better moisture looks to
reside. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025

VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the 03Z Saturday.
There is a low chance of vcty TSRA by 03Z Saturday across the
northern TAF sites that may bring lower conditions. This activity
will be ahead of a cold front that will move across the northern
TAF sites by 09Z and the cntrl TAF sites by 12Z bringing a wind
shift and -RA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  85  67  85 /  40  40  10   0
Meridian      72  88  66  85 /  20  30   0   0
Vicksburg     71  84  66  84 /  50  50   0   0
Hattiesburg   72  92  69  89 /  10  20   0   0
Natchez       72  86  67  85 /  20  30   0   0
Greenville    67  79  62  84 /  60  50   0   0
Greenwood     67  81  62  86 /  60  40   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/19/22