768
FXUS64 KJAN 181843
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
143 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Tonight and Tuesday: Similar to Sunday afternoon, local radars
were showing isolated showers and thunderstorms developing across
the whole CWA. The movement of the convection was to the southwest
and scattered storms will be possible across our central and
southern zones into early evening before the convection will
dissipate. The microburst composite parameter has increased over
the last several hours and shows potential so a few strong wind
gusts can be expected. Otherwise, high pressure surface and aloft
centered just to our west will continue through Tuesday and
actually peak Tuesday before starting to break down. Tuesday will
be another day of near record temperatures across our delta
region. The hot temperatures will combine with high humidity to
result in heat index values above 105F this afternoon and again
Tuesday afternoon. At locations along the Mississippi river heat
index values are expected to exceed 110F this afternoon and again
Tuesday. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for this area
today and Tuesday. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 8PM this evening and a Heat Advisory has been issued for
Tuesday as well. Lower rain chances are expected Tuesday and any
thunderstorms that develop will do so mainly during the afternoon
and across our southern zones. A few storms may produce strong
gusty winds again. /22/

Wednesday Onwards...

Little will change over the next week, as high pressure remains
anchored over the region. Isolated afternoon and early evening
showers/thunderstorms are expected every day. All indications at
this time point to non-severe characteristics for this convection
but there is still a chance for damaging winds should a cell or two
overachieve. A weak trough will rotate around the upper level ridge
Thursday which will help moderate our temperatures back down into
the 90s, allowing for a relief from our 105+ heat indices across the
area. Upper level troughing will continue over the area into the
weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and a slight increase in
afternoon storm coverage; with the greatest coverage along and south
of I-20./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop and affect cntrl and
southern MS TAF sites through 01Z Tue before dissipating. Away
from TSRA, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  98  75  99 /  10  20  10  40
Meridian      74  96  74  96 /  10  10   0  20
Vicksburg     74  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  40
Hattiesburg   74  97  74  98 /  40  20   0  30
Natchez       73  97  73  96 /  30  20  10  30
Greenville    75 101  75  99 /  10  10  10  40
Greenwood     75 102  75  99 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ025>033-036>039-
     043>046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ026>033-
     036>039-043>046-049>052-055>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074.

&&

$$

22/OAJ/22