334
FXUS64 KJAN 250046
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
746 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Through Monday night: Dry weather is expected to continue through
the period. Latest water imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation
around a large nearly stacked low over Ontario, Canada with a
shortwave trough rounding its base, over our CWA. This shortwave
trough will shift east through Monday and help send a reinforcing
dry cold front into the northern portions of our CWA this evening
that will clear our southern zones Monday morning. Our normal highs
run near 90F and our normal lows run 68-70F. Despite the cold front
moving through our CWA, the southern half of our CWA will top out
above normal again Monday afternoon. Due to the drier air already
over our CWA and the reinforcing shot of drier air that will be in
place Monday night, morning lows will be cooler than normal tonight
and Monday night. /22/

Tuesday through Saturday:

By normal late August standards, temperatures going through much of
the upcoming will feel somewhat refreshing, especially after what`ve
observed so far this summer. In terms of hazardous weather impacts,
fire weather danger may become an increasing concern.

Looking more at the details, a highly amplified eastern CONUS
longwave trough will persist through the upcoming week, and the
resulting northwest flow will support a steady influx of relatively
dry and cooler air. High temperatures below 90 will be common each
day, and it should be noted that cloud cover may keep daytime
readings lower than forecast at times. Most areas will have morning
lows in the 60s, and cooler spots in north central to northeast MS
will likely dipping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning
and perhaps again Thursday morning. Rain chances will be quite
limited through Thursday, and with the increasing dryness, we will
need to pay greater attention to fire weather concerns. As
previously discussed, this may end up being a "limited" threat
should it be realized. Beyond Thursday, we may see rain chances
increase significantly with the approach of a shortwave trough,
especially over northwest portions of the forecast area.

Looking ahead to beyond the forecast period, this weather pattern
may continue with temperatures remaining below normal into early
September. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the TAF
period. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  93  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      66  91  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     68  94  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   71  96  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  95  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    65  91  68  81 /   0   0  10  10
Greenwood     66  91  67  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/EC/LP