359
FXUS64 KJAN 051741
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Rain chances exist through mid-week, but warm and mostly dry
   weather continues to be the general theme as we go through this
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Today through Saturday...Weak low pressure aloft will position
itself over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today.  With it,
increasing moisture across the region will yield some increasing,
and much needed, rain chances across the forecast area this
afternoon, mainly in the form of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms lifting up from the south. Much of this activity will
dissipate during the evening hours, but some isolated showers will
remain possible overnight into Monday morning.

Although this mid/upper level low pressure system erodes heading
into the new work week, moisture associated with it will linger
across the forecast area through mid-week.  This will continue to
result in rain chances remaining in the forecast, especially during
the heat of the afternoon, through at least Wednesday. This is when
a fast moving cold front is progged to sink south into and through
the region.

In this front`s wake Thursday through Saturday, high pressure at the
surface will quickly build southeast into the Lower Mississippi
River Valley, with high pressure aloft building southwest along the
north central gulf coast.  Not much of an airmass change is
currently expected to accompany this frontal passage, as only some
slightly drier air will advect into the region. Still, somewhat less
humid conditions will exist as temperatures hover at to just above
the norm for this time of year late in the week. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

As of 1741Z, HBG is currently under MVFR ceilings due to an
approaching stratus deck from the southeast. All other TAF sites
are currently reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions will
continue across multiple TAF sites through 19Z. By 20Z light rain
showers and low stratus will begin to overspread the area later
this afternoon/evening and will persist through the overnight
period. Multiple southern TAF sites (HBG, PIB, and HEZ) will see
IFR/possible LIFR ceilings heading into the overnight period due
to a very low stratus cloud deck (<500 ft). Easterly winds with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts will be possible this afternoon. A
brief period of low level wind shear will be possible across a few
TAF sites (GWO, & MEI) between 07Z and 10Z Monday. MVFR ceilings
will prevail across the entire forecast area through Monday
morning. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  84  70  89 /  40  40  30  30
Meridian      69  83  68  89 /  50  50  20  20
Vicksburg     71  86  70  89 /  40  50  30  30
Hattiesburg   71  86  70  89 /  60  40  10  20
Natchez       70  88  70  89 /  40  40  30  20
Greenville    70  84  69  86 /  40  60  50  50
Greenwood     70  83  70  87 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/19/CR