974
FXUS64 KJAN 190752
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
252 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Through Wednesday: We remain in the thick of a mid-August heatwave
with upper 90s to lower 100s temps and 105F to 115F heat indices
likely again across most of the area today. An Excessive Heat
Warning remains valid for much of the western half of the area,
with a Heat Advisory covering all remaining areas. As in recent
days, given the abundant moisture and instability around, isolated
to scattered diurnal convection will develop this afternoon
through early this evening, and a few stronger to marginally
storms cannot be ruled out. A transition in our weather pattern
will commence on Wednesday as upper troughing begins to deepen
over the eastern CONUS, sending a summer-type front southward
toward the area. The added forcing may result in greater coverage
of daytime convection. And while we`ll still be on the hot/humid
side of the front through tomorrow, the added clouds and rain will
begin to knock a few degrees off daytime highs for both temp and
heat index. Once again, a few stronger storms will be possible as
well.

Thursday through Monday: By Thursday, the front will begin to push
southward across the region, but it will make rather slow
progress and ultimately stall, setting up a contrast in weather
conditions from north to south. Farther south in the area, the
heat and humidity will hang around through the end of the week
with better (albeit still mostly diurnally-driven) rain chances.
Though heat stress may approach critical thresholds, greater
prevalence of clouds and rain during the day ahead the weakening
front will prevent conditions from being quite as hot and humid
as we`ve seen in recent days. Farther north, there will be a more
noteworthy decrease in deep layer moisture, yielding a decrease
in rain chances, especially into AR and north MS, and dewpoints
may drop into the 60s. The daytime periods will still be
seasonably warm but yet more tolerable owing to the drier
conditions.

By this weekend into early next week, a reinforcing front will
push southward across the area. This may further lower daily rain
chances even into southern portions of the area, with even some
signs of more noticeable temperature relief by the middle of next
week. We`ll keep our fingers crossed. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Patchy fog cannot be ruled out around daybreak this morning.
Isolated to scattered convection may result in brief categorical
reductions mainly this afternoon through early this evening.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       99  75  98  73 /  20  10  50  30
Meridian      97  74  97  72 /  10  10  30  20
Vicksburg     99  75  98  73 /  20  10  50  40
Hattiesburg   98  74  98  74 /  20  10  30  20
Natchez       96  74  96  72 /  20  10  40  30
Greenville   102  75  98  73 /  20  20  50  30
Greenwood    102  75  98  72 /  20  10  50  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ026>033-036>039-043>046-049>052-055>058-062>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL