691
FXUS64 KJAN 061047 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
547 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend.

- Monitoring the potential for increasing heat stress next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Today through Sunday night: There have been no changes in the
forecast reasoning for this weekend. A shortwave trough crossing
the Southern plains to Mid MS Valley will bring very humid
southerly flow into the forecast area this weekend. The
combination of lift and moisture will result in diurnally enhanced
locally heavy rainfall over southeast portions of the area today,
but the focus for locally heavy rainfall appears to be more
loosely organized Sunday. Overall, the heavy rain and flash flood
threat is too low to introduce formal messaging in the HWO
graphics for this weekend.

Going through next week, rain chances will diminish as the trough
moves out with strengthening of the subtropical ridge. The wet
vegetative state from recent above normal rainfall will support
very humid boundary layer conditions, and this combined with
increasing temperatures and relatively cloud free conditions
associated with the ridge will bring a threat for dangerous heat.
Current guidance indicates that heat indices/WBGT and the overall
heat risk should peak Wed- Fri when highs are expected to reach
the low/mid 90s. If these trends continue then formal messaging
will eventually be needed in the HWO graphics. /EC/

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 10Z at all TAF sites. Ceilings
lower nearer to dawn, dropping to MVFR/IFR as low stratus
develops across the region. Thereafter, MVFR/IFR ceilings will
persist through the remainder of the TAF period as rain chances
increase. Embedded thunderstorms within the area of scattered
showers will become more likely near the afternoon hours but
coverage across all guidances remain low at this time, as such we
are going with showers for the time being./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 10Z at all TAF sites. Ceilings
lower nearer to dawn, dropping to MVFR/IFR as low stratus
develops across the region. Thereafter, MVFR/IFR ceilings will
persist through the remainder of the TAF period as rain chances
increase. Embedded thunderstorms within the area of scattered
showers will become more likely near the afternoon hours moving in
from the south along channeled moisture. Far northern sites may
be spared any precipitation impacts, but areas along and south of
I-20 will see some significant rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms throughout the afternoon. Overnight expect MVFR/IFR
ceilings to develop throughout the CWA, raising/clearing up an
hour or two after sunrise./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  73  87  73 /  90  30  70  30
Meridian      85  72  86  72 /  80  40  80  30
Vicksburg     85  73  88  74 /  90  30  60  20
Hattiesburg   82  73  86  72 /  90  40  80  20
Natchez       86  73  88  74 /  80  50  60  10
Greenville    87  73  87  74 /  50  30  70  40
Greenwood     88  73  87  74 /  50  40  80  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/OAJ