884
FXUS64 KJAN 231558
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The forecast remains on track with rain being reported at most
sites at and south of I-20 in response to a low amplitude trough
moving through the area. Rainfall rates are not expected to reach
flood stage this afternoon. Highs will crest in the high 40s for
sites south of Highway 82 and peak just above 50 north of Highway
82./OAJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Today through tonight: Rain is increasing early this morning over
western and southern portions of the forecast area as a low-
amplitude shortwave trough quickly approaches from the west in the
fast zonal flow aloft. Rain will continue to increase this
morning and should reach peak coverage this afternoon, before
diminishing this evening. This will be a chilly, soaking rainfall
event with one to two inch amounts common along/south of the
highway 84 corridor, up to one inch amounts along the I-20
corridor, and lighter amounts farther north. Convective rainfall
will be minimal, and this will limit any potential for excessive
rainfall rates that could result in flash flooding. The system
will move out and rain should end over eastern portions of the
area prior to daybreak, at which time we`ll most likely need to
monitor for some fog potential. /EC/

Monday through next weekend: Temperatures will moderate in the
longer term with a fairly quiet pattern in the upcoming week. W/NW
flow aloft will promote fairly dry conditions with near to
slightly above normal temperatures. Ridging will build Tuesday
into Wednesday and bring a brief warm up early to mid week, with
temperatures warming into the 70s. By Thursday, an upper trough
and associated surface cold front will push in from the north and
bring temperatures back to normal for the remainder of the week.
This front could bring a few showers and isolated thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday, but overall the airmass in its wake
is rather dry, so rain should shut off fairly quickly. High
pressure becomes reestablished by Friday/Saturday and will allow a
return of highs in the 70s for the weekend./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Conditions will deteriorate through today, with widespread
IFR/LIFR stratus and reduced vsby due to RA/SHRA by late
afternoon along/south of the I-20 corridor. Rain will end from
west to east tonight, but widespread IFR/LIFR stratus will
continue until early Monday morning, when fog will also become a
possibility. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       40  63  41  69 /  50   0   0   0
Meridian      40  63  41  70 /  70   0   0   0
Vicksburg     40  62  41  69 /  40   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   44  65  43  73 /  70   0   0   0
Natchez       43  63  41  69 /  50   0   0   0
Greenville    35  59  41  68 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     35  61  41  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/OAJ/EC