822
FXUS64 KJAN 221529 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1029 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Latest surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary across our
northwest zones from just south of Greenville-Greenwood to just
north of Winona in Montgomery county. The stalled boundary is
progged to drift north this afternoon and place our whole CWA back
in the warm sector. As compared to Monday, lower PWATs are in
place today with lighter flow. The 12Z Tue JAN sounding also
showed a decent cap at 625mb. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and storms to break out across the CWA this afternoon. Although
the chance remains low a few strong to severe storms will be
possible with damaging wind gusts and hail perhaps to quarter
size generally over the southeast half of the CWA. Although
rainfall rates aren`t expected to be high, due to slower storm
movement, brief heavy downpours will also be possible. Despite the
rain chances and associated cloud cover, warmer than normal
temperatures are also excepted to continue. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Through The Weekend...

For the early morning period there are some sites throughout the CWA
experiencing a drop in visibility/ceilings, due to the combination
of falling overnight temperatures, and the wealth of surface based
moisture from yesterday`s rainfall. At the moment fog should remain
relatively thin, therefore we are not expecting to generate any
dense fog products for this morning. Expect showers to develop
across most zones by mid-morning and embedded thunderstorms
thereafter to become more widespread in response to the stalled out
front laying through the area in conjunction with daytime heating. A
marginal potential for severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out
with this system through much of south and central Mississippi;
however, shear values indicate that any strong/severe storms that do
develop in this area will be short lived. This setup, barring the
marginal threat; will persist through the rest of the day as the
front stalls across the CWA. Thunderstorm activity will transition
to showers overnight tonight, and this general pattern of daytime
thunderstorms and nighttime showers will persist through the late
week.

Sunday Onwards...

The front will begin to erode through the early weekend, bringing
forth a cessation of showers. Heading into next week, a high will
establish itself over the area allowing for quiet and calm
conditions to prevail through early next week./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Expansive MVFR to LIFR ceilings encompass the area this morning.
Additionally, a few sites are being impacted by fog to as low as
IFR/LIFR. Visibilities will improve by mid-morning and ceilings
will improve through the morning, returning to VFR at most sites
by afternoon. Scattered SHRA and TS activity will be possible
throughout the TAF period, with greatest coverage during the
daytime to early evening. Another round of low clouds and/or fog
is anticipated early Wed morning, with highest confidence across
south and east MS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  63  82  64 /  70  30  80  20
Meridian      80  62  82  62 /  80  30  80  10
Vicksburg     83  63  82  65 /  60  30  70  20
Hattiesburg   85  65  84  64 /  60  30  70  10
Natchez       83  64  82  65 /  60  30  70  20
Greenville    80  64  81  65 /  40  10  50  30
Greenwood     81  64  83  65 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/OAJ/DL