618
FXUS64 KJAN 050606 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
106 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Tonight through tomorrow:

Tonight, residual moisture could lead to some patchy fog
development, but this should only be brief where it occurs. High
pressure builds in the low levels Saturday over the midsouth and
will promote easterly flow, leading to increasingly warm and dry
conditions. An 850 thermal axis sets up over the area, especially
the northwestern portions, with temps aloft in the 15 to 17 range.
Deep mixing will favor above normal temperatures, in the upper
80s and low 90s. Some places could hit as much as 8-10 degrees
above seasonal norms Saturday, ahead of a shift towards fall like
temps next week. The dry conditions will also favor increasingly
cool low temps. /SAS/

Early next week:

The front that`s lying to the south of the CWA will have pretty much
washed out completely by Sunday, allowing for a more maritime
intrusion coming in from the Gulf to effect all zones. In  general,
strong ridging that continues to reinforce itself over the area will
suppress any measurable chance for precipitation and considerable
cloud coverage. Clear skies will allow our temperatures for early
next week to rebound back into the mid 80s and low 90s F, which
very well could be our last shot of summertime weather for the
rest of the year.

Tuesday through Friday:

Fall is going to make itself known late next week. Early Tuesday
morning we will have a dry cold front make its way over the region,
dropping our lows back down into the mid 50s F across all
counties/parishes. Beyond dropping our temperatures, this front
could bring in some to mid to upper level cloud coverage. The
pressure and thermal gradient is expected to tighten in the wake of
frontal passage, and with no significant rainfall coming along with
the front, higher winds, and low relative humidities, we could be
looking at an elevated fire risk later on in the week. Especially
once fuels dry for a couple of days.

Fortunately, the synoptic pattern is not favorable for any
tropical systems that may develop in the Gulf to move near our
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A patch of low stratus moving across southwest MS will bring a
period of MVFR to IFR ceilings to KHEZ through around 12Z-13Z,
but ceilings not expected at the other TAF sites. Patchy BR or FG
however may develop near a few other sites where skies are clearer
and winds have gone calm. Best chance for this is at KGTR, but
will monitor for development near the other sites. VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all sites after 14Z-15Z time frame. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  89  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      65  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     65  91  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   68  89  65  90 /   0  10   0   0
Natchez       65  89  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    65  91  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     65  91  64  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/OAJ/NF