310
FXUS64 KJAN 290544
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1144 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be
    followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

  - We are monitoring the potential for winter weather over
    northwest portions of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Tonight through next Thursday:

Tonight into Saturday:

Another chilly night with overnight lows ranging in the 30s is
expected across the CWA. Wet pattern is expected to set up
starting Saturday, as a longwave trough pushes a shortwave trough,
along with a cold front through the area; providing increasing
cloud cover and opportunities for rainfall. Shortwave trough will
pass through the area, bringing showers and storms to the area
Saturday night into Sunday. A few storms could be strong however,
severe weather isn`t expected as moisture/instability return are
minimal.

Sunday through Tuesday:

A cold front will approach the area from the Southwest
region/northern Mexico, resulting in rainfall over the next few
days. Winds below 850 mb will be northerly and cold, winds aloft
will strengthen and become southwesterly, creating what to many
likely resembles a pattern reminiscent of those that can create
winter weather problems in our area. Fortunately, trends this
morning in model guidance continues to back off on the idea of a
meaningful zone of freezing rain in the northwest portions of the
area. With trends suggesting the lower atmosphere could be a bit
slower to moisten on Sunday night, precipitation likely doesn`t
begin reaching the ground in the areas near freezing until near
sunrise or later Monday morning, suggesting that widespread
precipitation will be confined to the warmer part of the day Monday.
This likely means we see a plain, cold rain. There remains some
lower end chance that should precipitation begin a bit earlier than
expected, some light/trace icing could still be possible in the
upper Delta before additional, heavier rains melt/wash away any
traces. It`s also possible that a few ice pellets/sleet pellets
reach the ground Monday morning as the atmosphere moistens. These
pellets will not be impactful nor hazardous, however, and will melt
quickly as surface temperatures will be above freezing.

Rain will continue throughout Monday into Tuesday as the front
gradually clears. One thing being monitored is the northwest where
deeper cold air attempts to move into the upper Delta before the
rain fully moves out. These "cold air chasing the rain" scenarios
locally rarely result in more than a brief, non-impactful changeover
to wintry precipitation right as the precipitation ends. While this
situation will need to be monitored as temperatures in that area
will likely be near freezing around the time the precipitation
wanes, for now it appears that those areas will also escape without
impactful winter weather overall.  Wintry precip is not expected as
temps remain above freezing but rainfall is expected to be cold.
86/EC/

Tuesday through Thursday:

Post-frontal highs (lower 40s to lower 50s in the southeast) and
lows (mid 20s to mid 30s) will run 10 degrees below seasonal
averages. Longwave troughing sets up across the Southeast region,
pushing additional shortwave disturbances across our area. There is
expected to be a brief break in rainfall on Wednesday with cooler
temps. Rain chances return Thursday and continuing beyond the
extended period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR prevails through the period. The onset of rain showers should
be begin around 15z in the west, while holding off til after 0z in
the east. Winds will also pick up today out of the southeast
anywhere between 8 and 11kts. GLH is likeliest site to see gusts
in excess of 15kts. Low stratus will begin to move into the area
from the west at the tail end of the period./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  37  61  44 /   0   0  20  80
Meridian      54  33  59  45 /   0   0  10  50
Vicksburg     57  38  61  40 /   0   0  40  80
Hattiesburg   59  35  66  50 /   0   0   0  30
Natchez       59  39  66  44 /   0   0  30  80
Greenville    53  38  54  35 /   0   0  60  90
Greenwood     54  37  56  37 /   0   0  50  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/SW/SAS20