068
FXUS64 KJAN 300205 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
805 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rain expected tonight into Sunday, with colder conditions
    into next week.

  - Monitoring the potential for light freezing rain over far
    northwest portions of the area Monday morning.

  - Locally heavy rainfall is expected Monday through Monday
    night.

  - It will remain colder than normal with another potential rain
    event late next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Rest of Tonight...A mid/upper level trough swinging through the
Midwest and Great Lakes region, will continue to slowly push a cold
front east into and through the forecast area overnight into Sunday.
While scattered showers ahead of this front continue to move east
through the CWA this evening, better rain chances will unfold across
the area overnight into Sunday morning as the front itself pushes
through.

Rain will clear out of the Delta by day break, as slightly colder
drier air begins advecting into the region in the front`s wake.
Under cloudy skies, look for lows to range from the middle 30s
behind the front, to around 50 ahead of it across Pine Belt
Sunday morning.

The overall forecast is in good shape.  Other than a few minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on trends, no
major changes will be made on this evening`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Tonight:

Rainfall will continue tonight as a shortwave trough pushes through
the region. Showers are likely with perhaps an isolated rumble of
thunder not out of the question. Severe weather is not
anticipated as instability/moisture are limited.

Sunday into Monday:

Primary concern for possibly heavy rain and a brief period of wintry
weather continues for Sunday night through Tuesday morning as
another shortwave trough moves across the area. Following tonight`s
front, cold air advection will become entrenched at the surface. By
Sunday evening, warm air advection aloft is expected to lift
moisture over the cold surface air which will bring increased clouds
initially and by perhaps mid morning Monday mostly virga rainfall
will have sufficiently moistened the low-levels to allow for
rainfall to reach the ground. Should this moistening occur
sufficiently quickly before we warm above temperatures hovering
near freezing early Monday morning, portions of SE AR, NW MS Delta
could see some risk for a brief period of trace freezing rain.
However, meaningful accumulation isn`t expected as surface/ground
temps remain well above freezing. Vegetation or elevated surfaces
could become briefly glazed but road surfaces are unlikely to be
sufficiently cold for sufficient duration to result in meaningful
road hazards. Regardless, caution should be exercised when
travailing, particularly over overpasses and less-traveled areas,
as roads will certainly be wet and slick regardless of ice
potential. As the morning progress, any frozen precip in the NW
parts of the area will transition to rain and widespread rainfall
is expected through the rest of Monday and into Monday night.

Tuesday through Friday:

Cold temps are expected post-frontal passage as high range from the
lower 40 in the north to lower 50 degrees in the south and lows
reach the lower 20s to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs are
expected to remain below seasonal averages; however; temps will
gradually warm to where highs reach the mid/upper 50s and lows reach
the mid/upper 30s. Next chances for rainfall is expected Thursday
into the weekend as another shortwave trough traverse the area.
Severe weather isnt currently expected with limited thermodynamic
recovery anticipated and the pattern largely remaining suppressed.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR flight categories are currently prevailing at area TAF sites
this evening, despite both light rain and clouds across the
region. This will however change through the overnight hours as a
both showers and low stratus increase in coverage across the area
as a cold front moves east into and through the region through
Sunday. This will result in a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings across the
area, with some MVFR visibilities possible at sites that
periodically observe some heavier rainfall. Winds will remain
southeasterly between 3-8 knots ahead of this front, but will
quickly become more northwesterly and breezy in the front`s wake
into Sunday morning and afternoon, particularly across the Delta
region. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       46  54  39  52 /  90  70  40  80
Meridian      44  55  37  53 /  70  80  30  70
Vicksburg     41  52  37  48 /  90  50  40  80
Hattiesburg   49  64  44  61 /  30  60  30  60
Natchez       45  56  39  53 /  90  70  50  80
Greenville    36  44  33  40 /  90  20  20  70
Greenwood     39  48  34  45 /  90  30  10  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/