645
FXUS64 KJAN 220537 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

This afternoon through Sunday night:

In terms of the heat, the forecast confidence continues to be
high in the details through mid week. Significant heat continues
to show up more prominently in the guidance as the subtropical
ridge strengthens over our region during what is climatologically
the hottest time of the year. The thermal ridge will support
anomalously warm low level temperatures (e.g., H850 T in the lower
20s deg C), and these will correspond with a greater chance for
us to observe 100 deg F air temperatures, but if it`s any
consolation, record highs are not being threatened. After what
should be a hotter day Tuesday with significant heat mainly
along/west of I-55, heat stress levels will peak Wednesday, and
then will be only slightly lower Thursday. In terms of product
headlines, a combination of extreme heat warnings and heat
advisories will be required through at least Thursday, and in the
HWO graphics, impacts are being messaged accordingly.

Where the heat stress forecast gets less clear is later in the
week and weekend. Perturbations in the westerlies north of the
ridge are forecast to get pulled clockwise around the east side
of the ridge, and entrained into the easterly flow south of the
ridge. This would lead to a couple of changes, including the
increase in convective rainfall chances, especially over southeast
portions of the area where diurnal convective rainfall coverage
could be considerable, and it would help to disrupt the ridge and
thereby moderate the heat stress levels. Having said this, folks
should not count on there being a big pattern change as it still
looks to remain quite hot and humid for the foreseeable future.

Another thing to monitor for could be the potential for a few
strong/severe multicell storms as the easterly low/mid level flow
around the ridge will likely increase and become more cyclonic late
this week resulting in a favorable combination of steep lapse
rates and flow near the outer periphery of the ridge. Rain chances
will be seasonably high for the Thu-Sun time frame. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR conditions and a light s-sw wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  98  77  95 /   0  20  10  40
Meridian      75  97  75  92 /  10  40  20  60
Vicksburg     76  99  78  97 /   0  10  10  30
Hattiesburg   77  98  77  93 /  10  50  30  80
Natchez       76  98  76  95 /   0  10  10  40
Greenville    76  99  78  97 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     76  99  78  97 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ026>033-036>039-044>046-049>052-055>058-061>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/EC/22