232
FXUS64 KJAN 080022
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
722 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The overall forecast remains on track with some minor adjustments
made, mainly in the first 24 hours. Primarily: a decreased chance
for shower coverage extending south to I-20, and the attendant
severe potential associated with those showers. A more detailed
breakdown follows:

Through Monday: As mid level ridging has begun to retreat southward,
and a more active weather pattern has begun to shift into the area
this weekend with a series of shortwaves set to bring multiple
rounds of convection over the next few days. In this regime, because
each round of showers and storms is contingent on mesoscale details
influenced by the previous round, timing is difficult to pin down
more than about 18-24 hours ahead of time. The first system of
interest is currently advancing eastward across northern periphery
of the CWA and should continue pushing east-southeastward. While the
bulk of available guidance keeps the core of this complex just north
of our area, there remains a chance for our reinforcing/secondary
line to push through north of Highway 82. This is where an enhanced
risk of severe storms has been highlighted with damaging wind gusts
being the primary concern.

Further south, conditions will be mainly dry through much of the
day. Isolated, mainly diurnally-driven convection is possible this
afternoon. However, the potential for additional widespread
development will increase after sunset. These storms may initially
fester in a west-to-east corridor this evening before eventually
making more southeastward progress into Sunday morning. Given
sufficient deep shear and instability, some of these storms could be
severe with a threat for damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally,
it is possible a localized flooding threat may need to be
highlighted if it becomes more apparent that tonight`s storms will
train over a longer period of time.

From the daytime Sunday through Monday, an additional one or two
convective complexes are expected to traverse the area, including a
potential upstream MCS reaching our area sometime Monday morning.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with these storms, though
exact timing will play a role in their intensity as they reach our
area. While momentum of a strong cold pool could sustain a severe
threat in the morning hours, given the time of day, the storms could
be in a weakening state as they arrive and stabilize the airmass,
disrupting severe weather potential later in the day. We`ll have a
better idea of how things will play out as this gets closer. In the
mean time, we will continue to highlight a slight risk for severe
potential during this time frame in the HWO graphics.

Heat stress: With much of the area remaining fairly dry still today,
above average temps and humidity are anticipated, with heat indices
having the potential to again breach the triple digits, especially
along and south of I-20. We will continue to highlight a limited
heat stress threat over roughly the southern half of the area.
/DL/OAJ/

Tuesday through the weekend...

Global guidance continues to show a cold front shifting southward
and stalling across the southeastern CONUS heading into Tuesday.
This front will provide some relief from the triple digit heat index
readings over much of our forecast area. This front will also keep
higher chances of showers and t-storms around for the rest of the
period/area for the afternoon hours and subsequently peter off after
sunset./CR/OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions with southwesterly breezes will be the general rule
for the forecast area through Sunday. Exceptions will be short
duration impacts associated with a convective system later
tonight for locations mainly north of I-20. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  89  71  84 /  30  50  60  90
Meridian      73  89  69  86 /  30  60  60  90
Vicksburg     74  90  71  85 /  30  50  60  80
Hattiesburg   76  94  74  91 /  10  40  50  70
Natchez       75  90  73  86 /  10  40  40  70
Greenville    72  89  71  81 /  80  50  50  90
Greenwood     72  89  71  83 /  80  60  40  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/