779
FXUS64 KJAN 201434 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
834 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase
    Friday

  - A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger
    storms will be a concern early next week (late Monday to
    Tuesday)

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 834 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Dense fog has been fairly widespread this morning along and south
of the I-20 corridor, with some in portions of northeast MS as
well. In the north, fog is mixing out in most areas. Further
south, fog is gradually lifting to a low stratus deck with
visibilities slowly improving, though the fog/stratus areas is
gradually expanding northward still. The Dense Fog Advisory has
been canceled for northern areas. For southern/eastern areas, will
monitor closely for a possible extension as we come up on the 9
AM expiration time. While conditions are showing improvement, it
is taking a while to do so.

Otherwise, a band of showers and thunderstorms extends from
southern AR into eastern AR. This activity may sink into our
southeast AR and northwest MS areas through the daytime hours,
but it is not expected to make much southeastward progress during
the near term and most areas will still remain dry. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Through middle of next week...

Through this weekend (Through Sunday): Stationary front is
situated off to the north this morning, with moist return flow in
the low levels to the south. This is helping seasonably warm
night, some 17-24F degrees above currently and for lows by
daybreak (58-65F degrees). With surface high and 590DM ridge over
the central to eastern Gulf keeping southerly flow at the surface
and low-levels in place, dense fog has developed across portions
of the Highway 82 to 45 corridors and advecting in quicker than
anticipated in the Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors. Based on
these factors, the areal configuration of the ongoing dense fog
headlines were expanded earlier to include the six counties in
the east (Neshoba-Kemper south to Jasper-Clarke). In addition,
expanded the ongoing hazard graphic for dense fog Limited area to
the west to account for more expansive fog potential. Patchy
dense fog concerns should remain southeast of the MS Delta, with
areas of dense fog generally in the Golden Triangle to Highway 82
corridor, southward along Highway 45 to Interstate 59 to Highway
84 corridors. Dense fog headlines earlier had to be adjusted
and expanded due to more expansive nature and faster onset. These
dense fog concerns should lift around daybreak. Rest of the
afternoon should remain mostly dry as moist advection plume
remains (PWs in excess of 1.5 inches) over central Texas across
the Ozarks to Mid South region to the north. This will keep rain
chances confined mainly north of Highway 82 but some could sneak
in these areas this afternoon to evening. High temperatures will
be seasonably warm, some 12-18F degrees above (79-83F degrees).

Synoptic pattern into Friday and this weekend will consist of
ejecting shortwave trough out of the TX Panhandle and into the
Ozarks, with a 1008-1010mb surface low moving east-northeast into
the Mid MS Valley along the stalled frontal zone. This will lead
to increased rain and some storm coverage Friday, with limited
organized storm potential. There is some decent shear in the
morning hours, so as the atmosphere destabilizes, some stronger
storms can`t be ruled out before midday. However, limited forcing
lowers confidence in severe storms to not mention in the HWO.
Prior to frontal passage, rain chances will persist through weak
frontal convergence into the start of the weekend on Saturday.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected both Friday and Saturday,
with morning lows (18-24F above) and highs (12-16F above). Record
warm temperatures (highs and lows) are possible during this
period. Front will carve through the area later Saturday, driving
a 1024mb surface high into the southern Plains to Gulf Coast
states by late weekend into Sunday. PWs will fall to around half
an inch and combined with shortwave ridging building through,
drier conditions and less seasonable warmth is expected late
weekend on Sunday.

Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As shortwave ridge builds eastward
to start the work week, a more potent cold core low aloft will be
moving out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains.
Sharp jet energy (60-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will
swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by
early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a
more potent surface 1005-1006mb low across the Central Plains and
drive a stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday.
Strong southwesterly shear (25-45kts) will set up but remain
mostly line-parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into
the 62-65F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With
southwesterly mean bulk shear, limited residence time of warm
sector and less favorable timing closer to the diurnal minimum,
this looks to be short duration potential. Can`t rule out some low
end (non-zero) strong to severe potential Monday night into early
Tuesday morning but holding off mention in HWO. Rain totals will
be sufficient, up to around 2 inches or even locally higher in
convection or areas of training in line-parallel situations.
However, recent dryness lowers confidence enough to not add
anything in hazard graphics for now. Pattern into mid week gets
more sketchy as synoptic/surface features are in multiple camps,
with Euro more progressive with the front and less sharp of
longwave trough/continued ascent and more zonal flow, while GFS
more sharp cold core over the Great Lakes/northern Plains and
continued southwesterly flow and rain chances. Sticking with
rain chances from the blended guidance for now. If features are
more progressive, 1028-1030mb surface high will bring drier, cooler
and more seasonable conditions into mid to late next week. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Low stratus and patchy fog, some dense and periodically reducing
visibilities to 1/4 mile, will continue to plague area TAF sites
mainly across south and east Mississippi through mid to late
morning. This is where flight categories will range between
MVFR/LIFR status, namely at KGTR, KMEI, KPIB, & KHBG. At remaining
TAF sites, due to patchy low stratus, with some patchy fog
possible, a mix of VFR/MVFR categories will exist through mid-
morning. By 17Z, VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF
sites. By late morning and continuing through this afternoon,
winds will be from the south between 5-8 knots. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  63  80  64 /   0  40  80  30
Meridian      81  59  78  63 /   0  20  80  30
Vicksburg     81  64  81  63 /   0  40  70  20
Hattiesburg   83  63  81  65 /   0  20  70  20
Natchez       81  64  82  64 /   0  40  70  20
Greenville    80  64  77  61 /  40  40  60  30
Greenwood     81  64  76  63 /  20  40  70  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ045>066-
     072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ016-
     023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/DC/19