535
FXUS64 KJAN 020010 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
710 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

This afternoon through tonight: As expected, we`re seeing a good
bit of convective rainfall coverage this afternoon. The hot and
humid airmass is supporting precip-loaded downdrafts capable of
producing strong wind gusts and torrential downpours. And there
is also some back-building convection noted particularly in the
vicinity of Webster County where a flash flood warning was issued
earlier. Expect localized strong wind gusts/ff threat to be a
concern for the remainder of the afternoon before convective
intensity subsides this early this evening. Otherwise, the heat
advisory is being allowed to expire this evening, then expect
fairly quiet weather conditions overnight.

Saturday through Thursday: The much anticipated reprieve from the
dangerous heat is still on track as westerlies suppress and split
the subtropical ridge over our region. This will allow
temperatures/humidity to return to more typical mid summer values
and bring a much needed break from the high levels of heat stress
for the weekend through early next week. As we go into the
mid/late week, there may be some rebuilding of the ridge to our
west, and while the hottest temp anomalies will be centered to our
west, there may be enough heat/humidity build-up over western
portions of the area to prompt more heat messaging. Given it is
far out in time and not squarely a threat in our forecast area,
will hold off for now. Below normal rainfall is also being
indicated by most guidance with anticyclonic flow and subsidence
being the primary influences, but climatology favors decent
coverage of diurnally driven convection over east/southeast MS.
/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Scattered SHRA and TS will begin to gradually diminish after
sunset, with VFR conditions at most sites at the beginning of the
evening. An MVFR to possibly IFR stratus deck will develop late
tonight through early Sat morning, lifting through the morning
hours back to VFR at most sites by late morning. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  71  91 /  40  60  20  20
Meridian      72  89  71  89 /  40  70  30  50
Vicksburg     73  90  70  92 /  30  40  10  10
Hattiesburg   75  92  74  92 /  50  90  40  60
Natchez       73  90  70  91 /  30  60  10  20
Greenville    72  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
Greenwood     72  90  69  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ027>033-035>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/DL