421
FXUS64 KJAN 021414 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Rest of Today...Slightly drier air continues to filter south into
the forecast area in the wake of a frontal boundary that now resides
just south of the forecast area near the gulf coast.  This slightly
drier air, in addition to cloud cover over the area, will result in
a break from the oppressive heat and humidity that`s plagued the
area all week.  Highs today will be around the norm for this time of
year, as they range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

With the slight drying of the airmass over northern portions of the
CWA today, and with the more moist air across central and southern
portions of the area nearer the before mentioned frontal boundary,
the better rain chances this afternoon will exist across areas
mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.  Some of the
more intense storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, with
frequent lightning and heavy downpours likely.  As has been the case
through much of the week, this convection will begin to eroding
across the forecast area during the evening as day time heating
gradually wanes.

The ongoing forecast for today is in good shape.  I`ll make some
small adjustments to hourly elements based on trends.  Otherwise, no
major changes will be made on this morning`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Through early next week: Though summer isn`t going away by any
stretch of the imagination, we will have a much deserved break from
the extreme heat stress that has plagued the area over the past
several days. A building upper trough over the eastern CONUS will
nudge a front southward through the area over the weekend, bringing
more seasonable conditions to much of the area. We`ll begin to see
60s dewpoints infiltrate the northern portion of the area by later
today, advancing farther south and east into the area on Sunday.
With temps closer to seasonal norms, this will yield heat index
readings within a more tolerable range over the coming days. The
only caveat may be south MS and central LA where heat index readings
will still be close to critical thresholds today before (relatively)
drier air arrives tomorrow.

With respect to rain chances, a decrease in deep layer moisture over
the northwestern half of the area will curtail rain chances, while
scattered convection will still be possible across south and
southeastern zones today. This theme will persist into early next
week, with more of a shift to a dry west/scattered PoP east
orientation by Monday.

Late next week: The mid level ridge will begin to build into the
Deep South again toward the end of next week, resulting in
rebounding heat across much of the area. Humidity will also begin to
creep back upward, and by Wednesday, heat stress could become a
greater concern again, especially over the western half of the area.
Over the eastern half, temps will be more marginal owing to greater
prevalence of clouds and scattered convection. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Patches of low stratus are producing IFR to MVFR ceilings at a few
sites to start the period, with VFR prevailing at the TAF sites
after 15Z. SHRA and TSRA are possible after 18Z, with best chances
near KHBG, KPIB, and KHEZ before 01Z Sunday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  90  70 /  50  20  10   0
Meridian      90  71  90  70 /  60  30  40  20
Vicksburg     90  70  92  70 /  40  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   92  74  93  72 /  60  40  50  20
Natchez       90  70  90  69 /  50  20  10   0
Greenville    87  67  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     89  67  91  70 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19