343
FXUS64 KJAN 041947
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
147 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Wet weather and cool temperatures will continue through
    Saturday.

  - Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible at times across
    portions of southern and southeastern Mississippi through
    Saturday.

  - The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into
    Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A jet stream oriented from West Texas to New England will keep broad
synoptic scale lift in place over the Gulf Coast and Deep South
regions through the end of this week. The pattern will favor steady
rainfall in rounds as upper-level disturbances moving through the
flow aloft enhance mid-level frontogenesis. PWAT values over the
Northern Gulf are around 1.5+ inches, in this range are above the
90th percentile for our forecast area, so moisture transport will
remain efficient and some heavy rain is still possible. The plume is
mostly south of our area but extends across far southeast
Mississippi. The first round of rain brought about 0.10 inches of
rain to areas north of Interstate 20, and about 0.50 to 2.0 inches
to areas south of the Interstate. Expectation is that between that
first round, the incoming next round this afternoon, and additional
rain through the daytime Saturday, average rainfall amounts will be
about 1 to 2.5 inches for areas south of Interstate 20, and about
1/4 inch to 1 inch for areas to the north. A reasonable upper range
for rainfall for areas along and south of the US Highway 84 corridor
in southern Mississippi would be localized amounts up to around 4
inches.

This pattern into the weekend will keep temps fairly stable between
mostly 40s and 50s. Then Sunday into next week, the pattern will
shift. The upper-level trough will begin to pivot eastward, and
drier northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the country. A
reinforcing cold front and surface high pressure will push through
the eastern CONUS through the early week. Monday night appears to be
our coolest of the next 7 days, with the potential for temperatures
to drop below freezing (down to the mid 20s or so) with that air
mass. And then a cold front moving south into the region Wednesday
night could bring another chance for some rain at the tail end of
the current forecast period. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

SHRA/-RA will linger prior to 19Z for PIB/HBG, but otherwise low
ceilings will continue to result in reduced flight categories
(MVFR/IFR) across the area through the TAF period. An additional
extended period of SHRA/RA will spread from northwest to southeast
through the period, ending in the same fashion between 04z and
06Z. Winds will remain generally light and northerly. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  50  41  57 /  80  20  40  30
Meridian      39  51  39  54 /  90  30  40  40
Vicksburg     37  49  40  57 /  50  20  30  30
Hattiesburg   44  55  45  58 /  80  50  70  70
Natchez       37  49  41  59 /  60  30  50  30
Greenville    33  45  38  52 /  30   0  20  10
Greenwood     34  47  37  54 /  70   0  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/LP