300
FXUS64 KJAN 060216 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
916 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Daytime heating helped a few storms move across northern parts of
the area, which has gradually diminished. As the evening progresses,
storms/rain chances are expected to end. Outside of earlier storms,
quiet and mild conditions are expected tonight with lows in the
lower 70s. Friday`s HWO graphic was adjusted to include timing
and no forecast adjustments were made. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

This Evening/Tonight through Mid-Day Tomorrow...

Spotty convection looks to be the order of the day for this rest of
the day, spurred by low level instability and day time heating.
These showers and garden variety thunderstorms are expected to
persist until an hour or two after sunset yielding to benign weather
conditions tonight through mid-day tomorrow.

Mid-Day Friday & Saturday...

A shift in the upper level pattern will allow more vibrant
convection to take hold during the afternoon, especially along
through the northern half of the CWA; where instability is
strongest. There is some uncertainty as to the exact
characterization of this activity, should our northwesterly flow
vector be more robust we should expect a smattering of severe cells.
Should that same flow waver there could be only a few short lived
severe cells. Again sunset will make way for reduced diurnally-
induced instability which will cause our showers/thunderstorms to
dissipate after nightfall. Saturday will see a strengthening of
unstable indicators driving a more widespread area of potential
severe weather encompassing the entire CWA (Marginal 1/5 south of I-
20, and Slight 2/5 North of I-20). In either case there will not be
deep synoptically organized forcing which should keep any severe
impacts relatively localized.

Sunday through Next Thursday...

Broadly speaking, daytime showers and thunderstorms across the CWA
are expected, with the aforementioned instability lingering in the
area. Similarly night time conditions are progged to be relatively
cool (lows in the high 60s to low 70s) and quiet as convection dies
down with nightfall. It should be noted that while at this point we
are not confident enough in severe weather parameters to message
those impacts via the forecast/graphics, don`t be surprised if that
shifts in the coming days especially if upper-level disturbances
overachieve./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Some scattered showers & isolated storms are ongoing across the
area, but coverage is low enough to not prevail at any site at
this time. VFR conditions will continue through the end of the 00Z
TAF cycle with light southerly wind, becoming southwesterly into
Friday, generally up to 10mph & brief higher gusts. There could be
some showers & isolated storms Friday, with only low probs
(35-55%) to only mention between 06/19-23Z at GTR & MEI. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  92  75  93 /  10  20   0  20
Meridian      71  92  73  93 /  10  30  10  30
Vicksburg     74  93  75  93 /  10  10   0  10
Hattiesburg   74  95  75  96 /  10  30   0  20
Natchez       73  91  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
Greenville    74  91  75  91 /  20  20  10  30
Greenwood     74  92  74  91 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/DC