677
FXUS64 KJAN 110553
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Local radars showed a broken line of thunderstorms generally
along and south of Highway 82. This activity was behind an outflow
boundary but still along and ahead of a cold front that will
continue drifting through the CWA tonight. The main threat with
the storms during the next hour or two will be hail to the size of
quarters. A damaging wind gust will also be possible. The
potential for severe storm development will decrease the farther
south the into central Mississippi that line gets. The forecast
has been updated to increase the chance for rain along and ahead
of the line through midnight. Temperatures were adjusted due to
the rain cooled air but forecast morning lows still look on track.
/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

Tonight...

Global guidance still shows a cold front grazing the far northeast
portions of our CWA, introducing a decent chance for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms later this evening. At the same time, a
positively tilted trough continues to hover over the Upper MS
Valley/Midwest. The aforementioned trough axis will advance
southeastward towards the OH/Lower TN Valley Region heading into the
overnight period. Within the base of this trough, hi-res guidance is
highlighting a 80-90kt jet from the ArkLaTex region tracking
southeastward across the southeast CONUS. This will allow for areas
along and north of I-20 to see dewpoints in the low/mid 50s as the
cold front propagates southward across our CWA. Severe t-storms will
occur across portions of north/northeast MS later tonight with
portions of central MS seeing isolated severe storms before
midnight as the storm system shifts southward.

The environment for this evening appears favorable for severe
convection with ample diurnal heating, steep mid-level lapse rates
(near 8C/km), decent MLCAPE (around 1300-1400 J/kg), and sufficient
low-level moisture flow from the Gulf. No changes have been made to
the severe graphic for tonight and a "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) is
still being advertised for portions of north/northeast MS. Areas
highlighted in the slight risk will have a chance to see damaging
winds up to 70 mph, and hail up to golf ball size. Elsewhere, a
"Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for isolated severe storms will
continued to be advertised from Hamburg AR towards Meridian MS. Main
hazards for areas highlighted in the marginal risk include damaging
winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. An isolated shower
or two cannot be ruled out west of I-55. Storm chances should come
to an end around midnight as the front continues its southward push
towards the Gulf Coast. Expect overnight temperatures to fall into
the low 50s areawide.

#######################################################
The forecast for the extended period remains the same with no major
adjustments made to the forecast. Please see the previous long term
discussion down below for more details.
########################################################

Friday through Wednesday: Relatively few weather impacts are
expected in the long term. For Friday, another lobe of vorticity in
cyclonic flow aloft will bring small shower and thunderstorm chances
to mainly northeast portions of the area, and afternoon wind gusts
could be on the strong side. Otherwise, a building mid level ridge
will bring dry and warmer weather as we go through the weekend and
into early next week. The next cold front may approach by Tuesday
and bring the next chance for showers and storms, but this should
not bring a significant concern for severe weather. /EC/CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A cold front and diminishing shra/tsra activity will continue to
push south across the area through the predawn hours. As we go
into Friday, diurnally driven isolated shra activity will develop
in the afternoon over northeast portions of the area, and this
should have little impact. Otherwise, expect gusty northwest
surface wind to peak Fri aftn. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       47  70  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      45  70  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     48  71  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   46  74  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       48  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    45  67  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     45  68  47  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/