099
FXUS64 KJAN 281902
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be
    followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

  - We are monitoring the potential for winter weather over
    northwest portions of the area early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Tonight through next Thursday:


Tonight into Saturday:

Another chilly night with overnight lows ranging in the 30s is
expected across the CWA. Wet pattern is expected to set up
starting Saturday, as a longwave trough pushes a shortwave trough,
along with a cold front through the area; providing increasing
cloud cover and opportunities for rainfall. Shortwave trough will
pass through the area, bringing showers and storms to the area
Saturday night into Sunday. A few storms could be strong however,
severe weather isn`t expected as moisture/instability return are
minimal.


Sunday through Tuesday:

A cold front will approach the area from the Southwest
region/northern Mexico, resulting in rainfall over the next few
days. Winds below 850 mb will be northerly and cold, winds aloft
will strengthen and become southwesterly, creating what to many
likely resembles a pattern reminiscent of those that can create
winter weather problems in our area. Fortunately, trends this
morning in model guidance continues to back off on the idea of a
meaningful zone of freezing rain in the northwest portions of the
area. With trends suggesting the lower atmosphere could be a bit
slower to moisten on Sunday night, precipitation likely doesn`t
begin reaching the ground in the areas near freezing until near
sunrise or later Monday morning, suggesting that widespread
precipitation will be confined to the warmer part of the day Monday.
This likely means we see a plain, cold rain. There remains some
lower end chance that should precipitation begin a bit earlier than
expected, some light/trace icing could still be possible in the
upper Delta before additional, heavier rains melt/wash away any
traces. It`s also possible that a few ice pellets/sleet pellets
reach the ground Monday morning as the atmosphere moistens. These
pellets will not be impactful nor hazardous, however, and will melt
quickly as surface temperatures will be above freezing.

Rain will continue throughout Monday into Tuesday as the front
gradually clears. One thing being monitored is the northwest where
deeper cold air attempts to move into the upper Delta before the
rain fully moves out. These "cold air chasing the rain" scenarios
locally rarely result in more than a brief, non-impactful changeover
to wintry precipitation right as the precipitation ends. While this
situation will need to be monitored as temperatures in that area
will likely be near freezing around the time the precipitation
wanes, for now it appears that those areas will also escape without
impactful winter weather overall.  Wintry precip is not expected as
temps remain above freezing but rainfall is expected to be cold.
86/EC/

Tuesday through Thursday:

Post-frontal highs (lower 40s to lower 50s in the southeast) and
lows (mid 20s to mid 30s) will run 10 degrees below seasonal
averages. Longwave troughing sets up across the Southeast region,
pushing additional shortwave disturbances across our area. There is
expected to be a brief break in rainfall on Wednesday with cooler
temps. Rain chances return Thursday and continuing beyond the
extended period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR flight conditions with northerly winds near 5-10 kts are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       37  61  43  54 /   0  30  80  60
Meridian      33  60  45  55 /   0  10  60  70
Vicksburg     38  62  41  51 /   0  50  90  40
Hattiesburg   35  65  51  65 /   0  10  40  70
Natchez       39  66  44  55 /   0  30  90  50
Greenville    38  55  36  44 /   0  70 100  10
Greenwood     37  57  37  47 /   0  50 100  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

86/EC/SW/