069
FXUS64 KJAN 060227 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
827 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Patchy dense fog possible tonight.

  - Cool temperatures with rain across the southeast half of the
    area will continue through Saturday.

  - The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into
    Tuesday morning.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Cloudy and dreary forecast is on tap overnight, with persistent
light rain chances in the Pine Belt of Highway 84 to Interstate
59 corridors through midday Saturday. RAP and GOES East water
vapor analysis haven`t changed in the last 24 hrs: trough axis
spinning over the Baja Peninsula, with broad southwesterly
flow/ascent. There is quite the gradient of deep moisture
(precipitable water around 0.3 in Little Rock, 0.75 inches in
Jackson to 1.2 inches in Slidell). Low-level moisture will be
persistent overnight, keeping widespread stratus around and
seasonable lows (35F to 39F north of Interstate 20 and 40F to 45F
to the south). Fog will be the main concern, with stagnant
pattern, low-level moisture, wet ground and some crossover temps
around 2F to 3F. HREF dense fog probs (10-20%) center along and
east of MS River into central, north-central to east-northeast MS.
This will likely be transient and short duration. Leaned a little
more towards gridded LAMP and HREF/HRRR visibility guidance/probs.
Added areawide "Limited" hazard graphic for patchy dense fog.
Forecast updates are out earlier. /DC/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow:
A few lingering showers will remain possible across southern
portions of the area, nearer a surface boundary that is stalled near
the coast. This precipitation and cloudiness will help moderate
temperatures nearer the coast where areas further inland will be
increasingly seeing dry, continental air filtering in from the
north. For this reason, most areas will remain cool and dry through
Saturday as overnight lows tonight drop into the 30s F for most and
lower 40s F along the highway 84 corridor. Areas along and north of
highway 82 will see some risk for a brief freeze just prior to dawn.

Through next week:

The overall pattern will continue to feature a general ridge pattern
over the western US and a trough in the east. Locally, this will
mean mostly northwesterly flow and reinforcing cool intrusions.
Along with this, the troughy nature of the pattern suggests some
opportunity for periods of precipitation. The first of which could
arrive in the later part of Sunday, featuring a cool or cold rain
with limited hazards likely. Following the first wave and front
Sunday into Monday, the next round of showers and reinforcing cold
front looks likely towards the end of next week when a more robust
shortwave moves through the longwave trough. Uncertainty at the 7
day range with an active jet stream suggests there could be shifts
in timing or intensity of this activity, but there does appear to be
an increased chance for thunder compared to recent activity that has
occurred with very limited thermodynamic instability. Some longer
term guidance suggest dewpoints could rise into the 60s F ahead of
that front which would be probable to support some convective
activity were that to be the case.

Otherwise, temperatures this week will generally be near to slightly
below normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s F and lows in
the middle 30s to 40s F most days with a few opportunities for a
freeze on a few of the chiller nights. For now, the coldest night
appears likely to be Monday night when most areas see temperatures
near freezing with northernmost areas dipping into the middle 20s F.
/86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 827 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Light RA ongoing in the Pine Belt will be pesky but remain locked
in the Highway 84 to Interstate 59 region through most of the
period (moving out 06/18-20Z Saturday). Main concerns will be
IFR to LIFR flight restrictions due to lowered ceilings/stratus
and some low vsby/BR (MVFR/IFR). There could be some dense fog at
times, but confidence is too low to add at any specific TAF site.
Improvements will occur to MVFR after 06/14-18Z, lifting to VFR
after (HBG and PIB may hold on to MVFR ceilings through around
16/21-22Z Saturday). Winds will remain generally light and
variable, shifting southeasterly late Saturday afternoon.
Additional IFR stratus may lift back north after 07/02Z Sunday
into HBG and PIB. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  58  45  65 /  10  10  10  30
Meridian      40  56  41  63 /  10  10  10  20
Vicksburg     38  58  44  63 /  10   0  10  40
Hattiesburg   44  60  46  69 /  50  40  10  20
Natchez       39  60  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
Greenville    36  53  42  57 /  10   0  10  20
Greenwood     36  55  41  59 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/LP