397
FXUS64 KJAN 091125 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dense fog early this morning will dissipate with the cold
    front passage.

  - Much colder air will move in behind the front tonight and
    persist through Tuesday morning.

  - Freeze warnings are in effect for northern portions of the
    area tonight, and for the entire area Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The much anticipated cold front representing the leading edge of
an impressively cold polar airmass has reached southern and
eastern MS as of early this morning, and the front will clear the
area entirely as we near daybreak. Behind the front, strong mixing
is expected to develop today resulting in gusty winds. The true
cold air will be delayed in arriving so daytime temperatures will
still be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the area. Cold
advection will intensify tonight and temperatures should fall
steadily to near or just below freezing after midnight roughly
along/north of the I-20 corridor. Based on slightly cold near
term guidance trends, have expanded the freeze warning a bit
farther south, but the longest freeze duration and most
significant impacts will be Monday night by far, and will continue
to message for this accordingly.

Given the extremely high confidence for a significant freeze,
have gone ahead and issued a freeze warning for the entire area
Monday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate Tuesday as the
upper trough and cold surface high shift east and allow for
increased southerly wind. Dry weather with a return to well above
normal temperatures is the consensus in the global model guidance
going through late week and into the weekend. it should be noted
that there is an increasing signal in the longer range guidance
for a shortwave trough to bring shower and thunderstorm chances
to the area as we finish up next weekend. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Ceilings and visibilities are rapidly improving early this morning
as a cold front pushes southeastward across the area. Though low
stratus and areas of fog remain across portions of south/east MS,
these should mix out by shortly after sunrise. Through the day,
VFR conditions will prevail but northwesterly winds will be gusty
with gusts to around 25-30 kt possible in some areas at times.
Gusts will continue into this evening, eventually subsiding late
tonight. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  32  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      65  32  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     63  33  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  34  51  25 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       65  33  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    56  31  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     57  29  45  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ018-019-025>052.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ018-
     019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ074-075.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

EC/DL