240
FXUS64 KJAN 040546 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Rest of Tonight...The forecast area will remain wedged between
troughing across the nation`s mid-section and a mid/upper level
lower pressure system currently meandering over the eastern gulf.
This is resulting in high pressure at both the surface and aloft
holding in place across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. With
quiet weather expected overnight, lows tonight will be slight
warmer than previous nights as they range from the upper 60s east
to the lower 70s west.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape for tonight.  Other than the
normal adjustment to hourly elements of the forecast based on
current trends, no major changes will be made on this evening`s
forecast update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night: Onshore flow will become a
little more cyclonic, moist, and unstable as an upper low drifts
inland from the gulf into the southeast CONUS. This will result in
scattered diurnally driven showers/storms over eastern/se
portions of the forecast area. Storm intensity will be limited by
relatively weak instability, and rainfall will be spotty light on
average. Otherwise, expect near to slightly warmer than normal
temperatures, and the potential for late night/early morning fog
confined mostly to southeast portions of the area. /EC/

Thursday through Monday: Not much has changed in the long term
forecast reasoning. By Wednesday, the ridge begins to break down
allowing for a shift to more southerly low-level flow
reintroducing moisture into the region and increasing the
potential for rain chances. In addition an upper level low
drifting towards the Gulf Coast states will help to reinforce
these rain chances in the form of isolated to scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas south of I-20 and
east of I-55 for the later part of the workweek, and then
eventually northern portions of the area.

By the weekend, the upper-level low will have pushed eastward
into the mid- Atlantic states. Simultaneously, a front continues
pushing southward as a trough looks to establish over the eastern
CONUS allowing the front to move into the region through the
Ozarks. A northwest flow regime is expected to be established,
bringing the potential for more organized storms and the
potential for some strong to severe storms, particularly in the
northern and northwestern portions of the forecast area. It`s a
little too early to show much detail in terms of timing and
intensity, especially with mesoscale influences likely to play a
large role.

Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s mid-late
workweek, with the possibility of some dangerous heat potential
with the influence of growing heat and humidity concerns. A
passing wave this weekend will result in cooler temperatures,
bringing highs back down into the mid to upper 80s. /KP/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

A brief period 12-15Z of MVFR cigs is psbl at HEZ. A brief period
21-24Z VCTY TSRA wl be psbl in the se. Otherwise, VFR conditions
wl prevail areawide through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  73  93 /  10  20  10  20
Meridian      68  90  71  93 /  10  30  10  30
Vicksburg     72  91  74  93 /  10  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   71  94  73  96 /  20  50  10  30
Natchez       71  90  73  92 /  10  20  10  20
Greenville    73  90  74  91 /   0  10  10  20
Greenwood     72  91  73  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/EC/22