506
FXUS64 KJAN 232314 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
514 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Tonight into Sunday:

As surface high pressure centered over our forecast area
continues to move east overnight, low level winds will begin to
turn out of the south. These light winds and some passing high
clouds may keep the area slightly warmer than last light -
especially across northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas.
Areas in eastern Mississippi have a better chance to radiate down
to the low 30s with likely frost Sunday morning. Moisture will
also gradually tick upwards through the day tomorrow. A few of
the typically colder spots could drop to freezing. Looking higher
up in the atmosphere, low-amplitude zonal flow over the country
will just yield the occasional high clouds.

Monday through Saturday:

An upper-level short-wave trough moving east from the Plains on
Monday will bring the next cold front into our area Monday evening
and overnight, though moisture return should be minimal enough to
limit thunderstorm potential. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of
thunder overnight with weak elevated instability, but mostly a
mundane frontal passage is expected.

What will have more significance is the next shortwave crossing
the Rockies on Wednesday. This wave should spin up a low pressure
system in the Southern High Plains on Wednesday, with more
moisture recovery and warming occurring over our area in advance
of its arrival. A corridor of warm, moist advection along the
Mississippi River Valley will increase instability Wednesday into
Thursday. While the wave will be positively-tilted and low-level
flow will become more south-southwesterly ahead of the
approaching system`s cold front, a strengthening upper-level jet
streak associated with the system will intersect the developing
warm sector along the Gulf Coast. Modest wind shear and decent
instability will likely support some chance for severe
thunderstorms, as the system moves through our area late Wednesday
into Thursday. This does include the Thanksgiving Holiday, so area
residents and visitors should pay attention to changes in the
forecast and updates to timing for best thunderstorm chances.
Latest suite of deterministic guidance was a bit faster with the
system, and POPs were trended lower for the afternoon and
overnight hours Thanksgiving day and night to follow this trend.

Potentially stronger high pressure arriving behind the cold front
should give us another chance for frost and freeze conditions
heading into next weekend. ECMWF sends a 1030mb high directly over
the Gulf Coast while GFS indicates colder air mass remaining
better anchored north of the area. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions prevail with a few passing high cirrus clouds.
Light/variable winds will be the norm for eastern & central
TAF sites, while light southerly wind will prevail in western TAF
sites from HEZ, GLH & GWO. An uptick in southerly winds is
expected Sunday aftn, sustained winds around 10-15mph & gusts up
to 25mph. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       38  73  57  78 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      35  70  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     37  73  59  80 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   37  74  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       39  73  59  79 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    38  70  59  77 /   0   0   0  20
Greenwood     38  71  57  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DC