065
FXUS64 KJAN 052348 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
548 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Through Tomorrow:

Persistence is the rule in this weather pattern. A frontal boundary
remains stalled north of our forecast area. Despite a weak upper-
level disturbance moving overhead today, the best we could achieve
from the air mass was more cloud cover and a few light rain showers.
Chances for those will wind down by this evening, with eroding cloud
cover after dark allowing for more fog development. Expect fog to
spread north from the Gulf Coast by morning, so have issued an
updated local fog graphic with an Elevated threat area highlighting
areas of dense fog more likely along and south of I-20 and along and
east of I-55 through the morning. "Limited" threat for patchy dense
fog is for the remainder of the forecast area. If clouds can thin
heading into tomorrow afternoon, temps should warm into the upper
70s and low 80s. /NF/

Thursday Night through next Thursday:

Forecast for the extended period still remains on track with no
major adjustments made to the overall forecast. Global guidance
highlight a cold front over the Lower Mississippi Valley Region
looking ahead into the late week. Northern portions of our forecast
area still look to have the best chance of seeing scattered showers
with low end PoP chances around 20-30%. Model consensus from both
the GFS and the NAM have continued to lower PoPs from Thursday night
through Sunday. It is possible that showers will not end up staying
in the forecast around this timeframe. Rain trends will continued to
be monitored and adjustments to the forecast will likely be made as
we get closer. Global guidance is still highlighting embedded weak
shortwaves that will move through the zonal pattern established over
the southeast CONUS by the late week. The warming trend will still
continue for much of our forecast area through the weekend as
discussed in previous forecast discussions. A chance for record
daily highs, including warm record lows, will be possible around
this timeframe thanks to the maritime tropical airmass over the
southeast region.

Looking ahead into the new work week, global guidance still
highlights a sfc low moving across the central United States/Great
Lakes Region. This will allow for a cold front shifting closer
towards our forecast area by mid-morning Monday. Rain chances are
forecasted to increase across the area heading into Monday evening.
Afternoon highs for Monday will peak in the upper 50s north of I-20.
Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 see highs in the mid to upper 60s.
Showers and t-storms will continue across the entire forecast area
Monday night through Tuesday night with slightly higher PoP chances
around 50-70% as the aforementioned front stalls over Central MS.
Some of these storms could lead to heavy downpours at times thanks
to the stalled front. Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25-2.00
inches with locally higher amounts. Rainfall trends will continued
to be closely monitored as get closer to this event.

The front will finally begin to drift south away from our forecast
area and towards the Gulf Coast by Tuesday night. Rain chances will
begin to decrease looking ahead into Wednesday with slightly higher
PoPs (55-60%) still possible east of I-55 by Wednesday evening.
Scattered rain showers will continue across central MS heading into
Thursday as future guidance shows a shortwave trough axis moving
across the Southern Plains towards our forecast area to finish off
the extended period. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area late this
afternoon. Lingering light SHRA in the GTR vicinity are currently
moving out of the area, with no substantial precip expected
through Thursday. A resurgence of low clouds and fog are expected
overnight through Thu morning, with a return to LIFR/IFR
conditions expected at many sites. Visibilities should improve by
mid to late morning in areas impacted by fog, but IFR to MVFR
ceilings may persist into the afternoon again in some areas. VFR
conditions are expected to return by late afternoon. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  79  61  80 /   0  10   0  10
Meridian      58  78  60  80 /  10  10  10  10
Vicksburg     64  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   60  79  61  82 /   0  10   0  10
Natchez       64  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    64  75  59  74 /   0  10  10  10
Greenwood     64  75  61  77 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Thursday
     for MSZ048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/CR/DL