


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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047 FXUS64 KJAN 011129 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 629 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Through tonight: We have one more day of higher rain chances before we see a change in pattern ahead of the holiday. A surge of moisture will remain pooled over the area ahead of a weak summer type front. Isolated showers were already ongoing early this morning in central MS, along with a broken line of storms across west TN into north MS. This activity is expected to weaken through the early morning hours but its associated outflows may help trigger and focus redevelopment of showers and storms over our area later today. CAM guidance suggests main timing for development will be from mid afternoon and shifting southeastward through the early evening. Given this time frame, there will be ample time for heating and destabilization. While shear will be subpar, it will be a bit stronger than typical background flow of an average summertime day. These factors will result in potential for a few storms to become severe with a threat for damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, but storms today appear less likely to stall given increased upper level flow, so flooding appears less likely. Ahead of the rain, it will be quite hot and humid again, with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range possible across much of the area. Wednesday through Monday: The weak front will move through tonight into Wednesday, bringing a drier airmass to the region for the 4th of July holiday. While isolated convection cannot be ruled out, mainly across south MS and central LA, most areas will remain dry through the end of the week. As a result, there will be an uptick in high temps, with upper 90s possible by Saturday. However, as moisture begins to creep back in over the weekend, heat stress will be an increasing concern. And chances for diurnal convection will also begin to return. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Later today, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected, with brief categorical reductions and gusty wind possible. Though most coverage of convection will be from mid afternoon through mid evening, isolated activity is possible until that time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 72 91 70 / 70 20 10 0 Meridian 92 71 91 68 / 70 30 10 0 Vicksburg 92 73 92 71 / 60 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 93 73 94 72 / 80 20 30 0 Natchez 91 73 90 71 / 60 20 20 0 Greenville 91 72 91 70 / 30 10 10 0 Greenwood 91 71 92 69 / 40 10 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL