867
FXUS64 KJAN 081124
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
524 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Today through Monday Afternoon...

The stalled boundary has reoriented E-W through central portions of
the forecast area early this morning. An upstream low is progged to
begin influencing our forecast zones late today by drawing in Gulf
moisture in over the aforementioned stalled front, enhanced by
daytime heating, these factors will facilitate thunderstorms and
showers along and south of I-20 during late afternoon hours and into
the evening. A continuation of these general conditions are expected
to persist through Monday afternoon, as the stalled front washes out
this weekend and the low moves from the Four Corners region towards
the great lakes, bringing attendant height falls for the Gulf Coast
with the associated trough extending from it. This will enhance lift
for the entire CWA and produce widespread/numerous showers (80%
coverage) and embedded thunderstorms. PWATs have lingered in the 2.0-
2.5 range across the last few model runs so we could see some much
needed high rain rates across most counties/parishes.

Monday Night through Next Friday.

The work week will see the cessation of widespread showers and
thunderstorms as the front/trough exits the area. Temperatures look
to cool off in the wake of this trough/weak frontal passage dropping
down into the low to mid 50s Monday night in the northeastern
reaches of the CWA. These cooler temperatures will push further
south Tuesday night and settle into the area ahead of another
stronger, reinforcing cold front making its way into the area
Wednesday night. Our temperatures look to cool off substantially
with highs in the mid 60s Thursday and Friday and lows in the mid to
low 40s to finish off the week. This reinforcing cold front will
bring scattered (35%) showers with it but with the lack of any
sturdy moist air advection into the area, rain rates should be far
below what is projected for this weekend./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Mostly IFR/MVFR ceilings prevail at TAF sites this morning and
this will continue through the morning hours. Ceilings should
begin to lift after 17-18Z, with mostly VFR conditions at sites
this afternoon through the evening hours. Expect a return to
MVFR/IFR conditions overnight along with a few showers possible.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  69  83  67 /  30  30  40  70
Meridian      81  67  83  65 /  20  20  30  50
Vicksburg     83  69  80  66 /  30  40  50  80
Hattiesburg   85  69  88  69 /  10  10  20  30
Natchez       83  69  80  67 /  30  30  50  70
Greenville    78  66  75  65 /  20  60  60  80
Greenwood     81  66  79  66 /  10  40  50  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15