891
FXUS64 KJAN 040558
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Through mid to late next week (Thursday)...

Dangerous heat stress remains a concern beginning this Independence
Holiday weekend and increasing through next week. Be sure to stay
cool and hydrated, and use sunscreen if enjoying the day
outdoors.

1018-1020mb sfc high situated over the OH Valley will gradually
propagate to the east over the next several days, with 592DM 500mb
ridge building eastward. Upper level flow will migrate to a cut-off
low over the Atlantic seaboard east of the FL Peninsula, where a
potential tropical disturbance has a medium chance of development
over the next couple of days. Flow will gradually shift easterly to
more southerly by late weekend into early next week. Moisture will
be remain most confined to the southwestern third of the area,
generally southwest of a line from Vicksburg to Natchez. Morning
GOES East water vapor total precipitable water (PWs) indicate 1.6 to
1.9 inches, where the area of rain and isolated storm chances
will reside today.

As the ridge builds eastward into the Mid MS Valley, the cutoff
low will retrograde westward in the northern Gulf. Expect moisture
to continue to build in, closer to 2 inches into early to middle
portion of next week. The main messaging concerns remains to be
the increased heat stress building in this Independence Holiday
weekend and worsening across the area into next week. Seasonably
warm highs, some 3-6F above (92-97F), are expected through the
weekend and into the following week. This combined with return
flow, boundary level dewpoints will peak in the 72-77F range
during the work week. With some drier air around into early
weekend, some mixing could occur (sfc dewpoints in the 67-70F
range today through Saturday), helping keep peak aftn heat indices
east of Interstate 55 in check (96-100F today and 101-104F
Saturday). Confidence remains in keeping the ongoing "Limited"
heat graphic going through the mid to late portions of next week.
A gradual expansion of the threat area and potential for heat
headlines may be needed by middle of next week. Increased
convergence and rain and storm coverage will in the 15-45% range
both Sunday and Monday, shifting out of the Pine Belt to areawide
into next week, and 35-70% by Wednesday to Thursday. This could
keep highs staying in check near seasonable levels but dewpoints
will still remain high, so heat concerns will remain, even at
times in mid morning to near noon before convective initiation.
Lastly, with daily diurnal convection and trough/shear axis
dropping southward, combined with favorable lapse rates and
northwest flow/shear, some stronger to isolated severe storms
can`t be ruled out by mid to late next week. Both will have to be
assessed on day-to-day basis. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period with
a light northerly wind./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  72  95  73 /   0   0  10   0
Meridian      94  72  95  72 /   0   0  10   0
Vicksburg     94  73  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   95  73  97  73 /  10   0  30  10
Natchez       93  72  95  74 /  30   0  10   0
Greenville    93  72  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     94  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP