323
FXUS64 KJAN 220534 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1234 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Afternoon update: The weather has been less impactful today with
relatively reduced heat and convective rainfall coverage, and no
significant adjustments are being made to the prior forecast
reasoning. We may need to eventually monitor for fire weather
concerns, but that would be looking ahead to next week and
beyond as discussed below. /EC/

For tonight, temps in the 60s are expected over much of the
northern half of the area. Friday will be similar to today, except
the front will be slightly farther south, so areas south of I-20
will begin to experience less muggy conditions during the day
tomorrow. There will still be sufficient moisture and convergence
along the front for scattered diurnal convection across central LA
and south/southeast MS. By Saturday morning, lows in the 60s
can`t be ruled out at some cooler spots even into south MS.

Saturday through Wednesday: A similar pattern will continue into
this weekend, though the original front will begin to wash out
near the Gulf Coast. Conditions will be seasonably warm in most
areas, but more tolerable due to lower humidity. Isolated to
scattered diurnal convection will primarily be limited to
south/east MS. Mornings will also be more pleasant and slightly
cooler.

As we go later into next week and the weather remains dry, we may
need to monitor for an increase in fire weather concerns, even
with the recent rainfall. A reinforcing front will arrive early
next week bringing a more substantial push of drier air southward
into the area, and this may result in stronger mixing and
critically low RH values. Long term indices we used to monitor
fire danger suggest it will not take a lot of rainfall deficit to
cause problems. By Tuesday, high temps below 90 will become more
common, and most areas will have morning lows in the 60s. A few
cooler spots in north MS could even touch the upper 50s by
Thursday morning. Rain chances will be limited, though isolated
showers could return by midweek. /DL/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Patchy fog or low stratus are possible through shortly after
sunrise, mainly across south and east MS. Then scattered SHRA and
TS are possible mainly across south MS during the afternoon and
early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period with generally light wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  70  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
Meridian      92  70  93  70 /  30  10  30  10
Vicksburg     93  69  95  69 /  10   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   93  73  95  71 /  60  30  40  10
Natchez       92  70  93  69 /  30  10  10   0
Greenville    93  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     93  68  95  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/DL