124
FXUS64 KJAN 221724 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1124 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 926 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Rest of Today...High pressure at the surface will continue to settle
southeast into the forecast area through the course of today. This,
as strong northwest flow aloft persists across the region.  Cooler
conditions will be felt across the CWA today as a result.  Under
sunny skies, highs this afternoon will range from the middle 50s
north to around 60 south.  Northerly winds won`t be as gusty today
as they generally hover around 8 knots, gusting to between 10-15
knots at times.

The ongoing forecast is in good shape.  Other than some minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast, no major changes
will be made on this morning`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today through tonight: A continental polar airmass will continue
to advect into the lower MS Valley region as we finish up the
week, and this will bring the first freeze of the fall season for
many locations tonight. After a sunny and cool Friday, surface
high pressure will become centered over the forecast area tonight
under clear skies. Temperatures should drop quickly this evening
with frost/freezing temperatures becoming likely over northeast
portions of the area after midnight. Forecast confidence for
freezing temperatures diminishes over western/southern portions of
the area, and have issued freeze warning/watch headlines
accordingly. /EC/

Saturday through Thursday night: strong high pressure ridging
will continue across the ArkLaMs on Saturday, with highs in the
low to mid 60s. With increasing southerly flow, overnight lows
will be warmer Saturday night, ranging frown the mid 30s to low
40s. The surface high will shift east of the area on Sunday and
with southerly flow, highs will range from the upper 60s in the
northeast to the mid 70s across the southern portions of the area.
Surface high pressure will begin to weaken across the area on
Monday, as a cold front approaches the area. The winds will
increase out of the southwest out ahead of the front, with gusts
from 20-25 mph across the Delta. Expect even warmer temperatures
on Monday, with highs mostly in the 70s. The front will drop into
the Delta during the evening and move south across the area
overnight. Moisture/instability will be limited as the boundary
moves across the area, so expect mainly showers overnight.

Cool high pressure will once again build in behind the boundary on
Tuesday, as the showers move to the east and south. The boundary
will get hung up along the gulf coast Tuesday night, but will push
north back across the area on Wednesday. Both the GFS/ECMWF indicate
that another short wave/cold front will move across the area on
Thursday. They differ on the strength of the system, with the ECMWF
being the deeper/stronger stronger of the two. Either way there will
be increasing chances for storms late in the period. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites through 18Z
Saturday. Winds will steadily diminish through the period as high
pressure builds almost directly over the area overnight into
Saturday. Temperatures at most TAF sites will drop into the low to
middle 30s overnight into early Saturday morning. This could
result in a light frost accumulation on aircraft early Saturday
morning. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      57  30  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     58  32  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   62  32  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       59  34  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    55  33  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     56  33  62  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-054-055-059>066-072>074.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MSZ026>033-036>039-042>053-056>058.

LA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19