032
FXUS64 KJAN 240904
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
404 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today and Tonight: Heat and high humidity will remain the main
concern again today. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a large 597dam high centered over the
southern Appalachians resulting in an east to southeast mid level
flow aloft across our region. Early morning surface analysis had a
1025mb high centered over the southern Appalachians as well that was
ridging back to the southwest across our CWA. This stout ridging
surface and aloft will change very little through tonight. This will
lead to warmer than normal temperatures in the mid 90s this
afternoon. With PWATs remaining near two inches and mid 70F dew
points, peak heat index values will be in the 105-110F range again
today over the whole CWA. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for
our whole CWA today. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead
to isolated to scattered coverage of convection across the southern
half of the area during the afternoon and early evening. /22/

Through early next week...

Our area continues to be predominantly influenced by a midlevel
high, while low level moisture is largely retained. The hot and
humid conditions will result in continued heat stress through
Wednesday and a heat advisory remains in effect for the area through
Wednesday evening. Heat should moderate later this week with the
return to seasonal highs, as well the potential for better mixing in
the afternoon. Sufficient moisture will keep persistent rain and
storm chances with the chance for at least a few pop up storms. A
shortwave beneath the midlevel high will spark a potentially
organized MCS across Alabama. Steering flow around the high will
allow this complex to propagate eastward into our area, though the
extent is a bit uncertain as it moves into increasingly unfavorable
environment. Still, it could sneak into areas in our southeast. For
now, have increased PoPs slightly in this area for Wednesday
afternoon and evening. More will be assessed as we get closer.
Should the environment present itself to be favorable further east
(more favorable than guidance currently depicts), then it can be
assumed that the MCS would be able to maintain severe further east.

Late week, a weak upper low begins to shift into the area from
Florida as the upper ridge begins to break down and shift east,
which leads to a steady increase in rain chances across the area,
especially east. This feature remains very weak and meanders over
the region, with some guidance phasing it into the overall synoptic
pattern. Moisture remains high and storms persist. This should
remain seasonal as lapse rates and shear remain weak, which limits
more organized severe storms./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Isolated to scattered TSRA wl be psbl 20-24Z across the southern
half of the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail through
the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  74  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
Meridian      95  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  20
Vicksburg     94  74  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   95  74  97  73 /  40  10  20  30
Natchez       93  73  94  74 /  30  10  10  10
Greenville    94  76  95  75 /  10  10   0   0
Greenwood     96  75  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/SAS20/22