223
FXUS64 KJAN 040007 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
707 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow: The western trough to eastern ridge pattern
across the country will feature a strong 500mb ridge extending from
the southwestern Atlantic into portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley, maintaining mostly quiet weather across much of the CWA.
However far northwestern portions of the area, primarily near the
ArkLaMiss Delta region, will see the potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms due to their closer proximity to the
prevailing western CONUS trough. These areas have been included in
a tornado watch until 10 pm as increased storm relative helicity,
and instability around a stalled boundary is evident spanning
from northeastern Louisiana cutting through southeastern Arkansas
and northwestern Mississippi into southwestern Tennessee. The
primary threats for areas in the watch include; strong to severe
storms capable of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph, near 2 inch
hail and a few tornadoes. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere
in northern Mississippi but rain chances remain very low in these
areas due to the influence of the ridge. Likewise gradient winds
will continue this evening as deep layer height/pressure gradients
remain tight and largely unchanging across the region, eventually
dropping off overnight.

Friday warm and breezy conditions continue with sustained southerly
winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of up to 40 mph at times. Afternoon
highs will continue to be anomalously high with temperatures
continuing to near record highs ranging from the mid 80s F to near
90 F on the cusp of breaking or tying the record. The front will
remain stalled just north of the area allowing for renewed strong to
severe storms by the afternoon across the ArkLaMiss Delta region.
The primary concerns will be the possibility for strong to severe
storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph and
hail up to quarter size. By Friday night, the threat for severe
decreases as instability wanes. Warm and windy conditions will
persist with overnight lows in the 70s F.

Saturday and Sunday: The previously stalled cold frontal boundary
will begin to move south across the area on Saturday. An upper level
trough and sfc low will finally begin to eject across the southern
plains through the weekend, helping to move the boundary south and
east. We can expect an uptick in severe activity especially along
and west of I-55 due to an increased likelihood of storm impacts
prior to overnight decreases in instability. Storms, some of which
could be strong to severe, will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, large hail and the possibility for a few tornadoes; some
of which could be strong. Some remaining uncertainties exist,
including the behavior of early morning convection that could
modify the warm sector prior to peak diurnal heating. Should the
environment remain largely undisturbed until afternoon/evening,
the threat for supercells, some tornadic, could be maximized
Saturday afternoon into evening. By Sunday, the front will have
progressed through most of the area with lingering post-frontal
showers possible through early Sunday evening. High temperatures
Sunday afternoon will plummet into the upper 50s F across the
northwest to the mid 70s F across the southeast. Through this
weekend, rainfall rates and totals will need to be monitored as
flash flooding could be a concern, especially in urban and low
lying areas.

Monday Through Next Week: Weather looks to be mostly quiet with
temperatures looking to stay in the low to mid-60s through Wednesday
before rebounding into the mid 70s by the end of the period./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions will deteriorate through the evening and night as
lowering stratus ceilings reduce flight categories to MVFR/IFR.
Southerly wind gusts diminish overnight to below 15 kts but will
increase again after 14Z as strong mixing returns with improving
ceilings to VFR after 18-19Z. Fog will be briefly possible around
dawn for PIB/HBG before dissipating quickly after. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  72  87 /   0  30  10  80
Meridian      70  85  69  87 /   0  20   0  50
Vicksburg     73  88  74  86 /  10  30  20  80
Hattiesburg   72  85  71  85 /   0  20  10  60
Natchez       73  88  74  86 /   0  20  10  80
Greenville    70  85  71  82 /  20  50  40  90
Greenwood     72  87  72  85 /  10  40  20  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/KP/LP