896
FXUS64 KJAN 100550
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat stress will remain a concern through late week.

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible over at
  least portions of the forecast area each day of the forecast
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Through Monday: Heat and humidity will be the main concern through
the period but local radars were showing isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing over the eastern half of the CWA again this
afternoon. This activity will increase over the next several hours
with the greatest coverage expected over the northeast. This
activity will see a distinct diurnal trend and dissipate shortly
after sunset. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed our
CWA in the weakness between a mid level ridge to our west and to our
southeast. This weakness combined with daytime heating of our moist
airmass will lead to at least isolated convection again Monday
afternoon. Wl maintain a moist airmass and with temperatures
climbing back into the 90s and combining with high humidity, peak
heat index values will top out between 106F and 110F for the area
along and just east of the Mississippi river. Elsewhere across the
CWA less oppressive conditions are expected with peak heat index
values near 105F. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for the area
along and just east of the Mississippi river. /22/

The Bermuda high will propagate westward broadly over the region
leading to steadily decreasing rain chances and increasing
temperatures. Dangerous heat continues to be the primary concern
over the next week and an "elevated" continues to be messaged for
mainly west of I-55. It appears heat will peak on Wednesday as this
is when both temperatures and dewpoint will be maximized.
Thereafter later in the week, temperatures will increase as the
high strengthens and the 850 thermal ridge peaks, but
simultaneously this will lead to slightly lower dewpoints and
deeper mixing potential and thus slightly lower heat indices. The
summer regime is likely to persist through the period and hazard
graphics may be adjusted throughout. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period.
However, a brief period of low clouds or fog is possible around
daybreak this morning at HBG/PIB. This afternoon and early evening,
isolated to scattered convection may result in brief visby
reductions, with higher potential across north/east MS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  75  95  75 /  10  10  10   0
Meridian      93  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
Vicksburg     94  75  95  76 /  10  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   94  74  96  74 /  20  10  20  10
Natchez       94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10   0
Greenville    95  76  96  78 /  10   0  10   0
Greenwood     94  75  94  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-053-059>061.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ008-009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ075.

&&

$$

22/SAS/DL