964
FXUS64 KJAN 050218
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
918 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Showers and storms remain confined to areas generally north of our
area and that is likely to continue through tonight as the front
and upper forcing remains off to the west. Lows tonight remain
quite warm ahead of Saturday storms, only falling a few degrees
further into the low/mid 70s F by dawn. /86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Tonight: Throughout the rest of the afternoon into tonight the
forecast remains relatively similar to previous days. The western
trough to ridge pattern across the country continues a strong 500mb
ridge extending from the southwestern Atlantic into portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley continues to dominate our coverage area.
Conditions will remain relatively quiet with across a majority of
the CWA with the northwestern portions of the area, primarily near
the ArkLaMiss Delta region seeing the potential for some isolated
storms some of which have the potential to be strong to severe, but
potential remains focused just north of our coverage area, thus a
"marginal" risk for severe storms possible for the northwest will
continue to be advertised through 9PM. The primary concerns will be
the possibility for strong to severe storms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size.
Elsewhere in the CWA very isolated showers will be possible this
afternoon. Likewise similar to previous day, gradient winds will
continue this evening as deep layer height/pressure gradients remain
tight and largely unchanging across the region, eventually dropping
off overnight.

Saturday and Sunday: The previously stalled cold frontal boundary
will begin to move south across the area on Saturday. An upper level
trough and sfc low will finally begin to eject across the southern
plains through the weekend, helping to move the boundary south and
east. We can expect an uptick in severe activity especially along
and west of I-55 due to an increased likelihood of storm impacts
prior to overnight decreases in instability. Storms, some of which
could be strong to severe, will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, large hail and the possibility for a few tornadoes; some
of which could be strong. Some remaining uncertainties exist,
including the behavior of early morning convection that could
modify the warm sector prior to peak diurnal heating. Should the
environment remain largely undisturbed until afternoon/evening, the
threat for supercells, some tornadic, could be maximized Saturday
afternoon into evening. By Sunday, the front will have progressed
through most of the area with lingering post-frontal showers
possible through early Sunday evening. High temperatures Sunday
afternoon will plummet into the upper 50s F across the northwest to
the mid 70s F across the southeast. Through this weekend, rainfall
rates and totals will need to be monitored as flash flooding could
be a concern, especially in urban and low lying areas. Additionally
excessive rainfall totals will increase potential for river rises
and potential flood stage increases.

Monday through Next Week: Weather looks to be mostly quiet with
temperatures looking to stay in the low to mid-60s through Wednesday
before rebounding into the mid 70s by the end of the period./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Overcast skies have resulted in generally MVFR ceilings this
evening and that will continue overnight with MVFR/IFR conditions
expected until after 15Z. Southerly winds will decrease overnight,
increasing once again to 25-30 kt concurrent with improving
ceilings (around 15z). Showers and storms will increase in
coverage toward the end of the TAF period beginning with northern
sites and shifting southward ahead of a cold front. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  62  70 /   0  60  90  50
Meridian      70  85  65  75 /   0  40  80  90
Vicksburg     74  87  59  65 /  10  70  90  30
Hattiesburg   72  86  69  78 /  10  40  80  90
Natchez       74  87  59  65 /   0  70 100  30
Greenville    73  83  54  58 /  30  90 100  20
Greenwood     74  86  58  64 /  20  70 100  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/KP/LP