958
FXUS64 KJAN 151752
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1152 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Temperatures will be warmer than normal with dry conditions
    through Wednesday.

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late this week as
    a frontal boundary pushes into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Through late next week:

Upper ridging through much of the period will keep weather quiet and
promote much above normal temperatures, about 10-15 degrees (JAN
normal high is 68 for reference) with temperatures in the low to
even mid 80s by mid week. A weak dry cold front will sag into
northern areas Sunday night and will allow slightly cooler overnight
lows Monday morning in GTR (mid 40s). Thereafter, low temperatures
will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Our next rainmaker looks to be
late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty regarding the
severity of storms with some limitations, but shear and forcing
appears ample. The question will be instability, which the timing
near diurnal min does not favor robust instability. The likeliest
scenario at this time looks to be a forced line that pushes across
the area along the cold front. It is slow to depart the area, so
there is a chance that some reinvigoration could occur for the east
and southeast areas Friday afternoon with daytime heating, however
by this point, main upper forcing is departing the area. Some areas,
particularly west I-55, could see enough decent rainfall over a
short period that flash flooding cannot be ruled out. An anomalous
plume of moisture (2 inch PWAT), as well as deep warm cloud layer,
should lead to efficient rainfall rates. There is also the chance
for training storms along the boundary, so this may need to be
watched closely. This potential event still has a lot of questions
and uncertainty, so will continue to update in future issuances.
/SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected to prevail at the
TAF sites through the period. There is a chance for BR to develop
near KHEZ, KHBG, or KPIB around 12Z Sunday, but confidence in
development was too low to mention at this time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      56  80  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     58  80  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   56  82  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       58  81  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    60  76  52  75 /   0  10   0  10
Greenwood     59  78  51  75 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/NF