441
FXUS64 KJAN 082315
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
615 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After today`s "Elevated" heat threat, "Limited" heat stress
  conditions will continue into late this week, disrupted by
  increasing daily rain chances heading into the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A broad, zonally-oriented ridge of high pressure sites over the
Mid- South region today, with easterly flow along the Gulf Coast
and our CWA. A weak disturbance in the flow is helping to initiate
clusters of showers and a few thunderstorms into this afternoon,
and then drier air and subsidence in its wake will limit precip
chances for tomorrow. The heat associated with the ridge won`t
break, but we should see today`s peak heat index values of 105-110
degrees nudge lower with the arrival of drier air tomorrow. The
current Heat Advisory for northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas,
and western/central Mississippi may be the last headline for a
few days. "Limited" threat conditions for heat stress with peak
heat index values near or slightly below 105 will continue
tomorrow and the next few days.

Thursday, but especially Friday and Saturday, the weakening
influence of the ridge aloft will permit greater northward spread
of Gulf moisture and the approach of a surface frontal boundary
from the north. Even if the front itself does not make it into our
forecast area, storms may develop along and near the front and
move through our region or forecast area. Prospects improve for at
least scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the
area over the weekend into early next week. Potential coverage of
storms makes heat messaging less certain by late in the weekend,
so will continue to limit the timing of heat messaging after
Saturday. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

As of 2315Z, current radar scans show scattered -SHRA and -TSRA
across portions of north MS and portions of central MS. Otherwise,
all TAF sites are currently reporting VFR conditions. Winds will
be calm and light from the southeast around 3-4 knots tonight. VFR
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the TAF
period. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0  20
Vicksburg     73  95  73  95 /  10   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   73  95  73  94 /   0   0   0  60
Natchez       73  95  73  95 /  10   0   0  30
Greenville    75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     73  97  72  97 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

06/NF/CR