020
FXUS64 KJAN 172306 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
606 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Tonight and Monday: Local radars were showing isolated showers and a
few thunderstorms developing across the whole CWA at early
afternoon. The movement of the convection was to the south and
scattered storms will be possible across our southern zones later
this afternoon into early evening before the convection dissipates.
Local microburst checklist indicated a chance this afternoon with
the convection. Otherwise, high pressure surface and aloft centered
just to our west will continue through Monday. This will lead to
warmer than normal temperatures through the period. High humidity
will combine with the hot temperatures to result in heat index
values above 105F this afternoon and again Monday afternoon. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the whole CWA until 8PM this evening
and a Heat Advisory has been issued for Monday as well. Rain chances
will remain low Monday and any thunderstorms that develop will do so
mainly during the afternoon. /22/

Tuesday onwards...

Upper level high pressure prevails over the area and with the
subsidence expect mainly just isolated thunderstorm activity.
Little will change, as high pressure remains over the region.
Upper level ridging will begin to weaken on Wednesday, but expect
the hot temperatures to continue. Upper level ridging will
finally weaken over the area on Thursday, as troughing rotates
around the ridge. Expect cooler temperatures and an increased
chances for storms on Thursday. Upper troughing will continue into
the weekend with cooler temperatures and afternoon storms./15/OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Isolated convection will persist through around sunset this
evening then diminish. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered SHRA
and TS is expected Monday afternoon through early evening,
potentially resulting in brief categorical reductions and gusty
wind. Brief patchy fog is possible around daybreak tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period with light wind. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  98  75 100 /  10  10  10  20
Meridian      73  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
Vicksburg     75  99  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
Hattiesburg   75  98  75  98 /  20  30  10  20
Natchez       74  97  74  98 /  10  20  10  10
Greenville    75 100  75 101 /  10  10  10  10
Greenwood     75 101  76 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/15/OAJ/DL