867
FXUS64 KJAN 041822
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
122 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Through Saturday night: Satellite imagery was showing a very
inhibited cu field early this afternoon as drier air aloft has moved
over the CWA as seen on water vapor imagery. The 12Z Fri JAN
sounding had a PWAT near an inch and a half. Much of the CWA will be
dry today but an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out over our
southwest most zones where slightly deeper moisture still resides.
Wl carry low chance pops this afternoon that will end by early
evening. There should be very little cloud cover by sunset
which will allow for decent viewing of fireworks.

Satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a
592dam high centered over Missouri. This mid level high will become
more of a southwest-northeast oriented ridge axis while being
encroached upon from the northwest by an shortwave trough and
pinched from the southeast as a 586dam low develops over the
northeast Gulf and tracks westward. This will lead to a moisture
increase over our eastern zones by Saturday afternoon and lead to a
low chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms that may last into
the early evening hours before dissipating. Dry weather is expected
elsewhere but also warmer temperatures and higher humidity leading
to peak heat index values approaching 105F. /22/

Sunday through Thursday: Dangerous heat stress remains a concern as
it is expected to increase next week. As a ridge builds eastward
into the Mid MS Valley, a cutoff low will retrograde westward over
the northern Gulf. Expect deep moisture to increase closer to 2
inches into early to middle portion of next week. The main messaging
concerns remains to be the increased heat stress building in this
Independence Holiday weekend and worsening across the area into next
week. Seasonably warm highs, some 3-6F above (92-97F), are expected
through the weekend and into the following week. This combined with
return flow, boundary level dewpoints will peak in the 72-77F range
during the work week. Confidence remains in keeping the ongoing
"Limited" heat graphic going through the mid to late portions of
next week. A gradual expansion of the threat area and potential for
heat headlines may be needed by middle of next week. Increased
convergence and rain and storm coverage will in the 15-45% range
both Sunday and Monday, shifting out of the Pine Belt to areawide
into next week, and 35-70% by Wednesday to Thursday. This could keep
highs staying in check near seasonable levels but dewpoints will
still remain high, so heat concerns will remain, even at times in
mid morning to near noon before convective initiation. Lastly, with
daily diurnal convection and trough/shear axis dropping southward,
combined with favorable lapse rates and northwest flow/shear, some
stronger to isolated severe storms can`t be ruled out by mid to late
next week. Both will have to be assessed on day-to-day basis. /DC/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  95  73  96 /   0  10  10  30
Meridian      71  95  72  95 /   0  20  10  20
Vicksburg     72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  20
Hattiesburg   72  97  72  96 /   0  30  10  40
Natchez       72  94  74  94 /   0  10  10  30
Greenville    72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     72  96  75  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/DC/22