


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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073 FXUS64 KJAN 121745 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Tonight through Monday... A few lingering scattered showers and storms will be possible across portions of southeast AR and most of our northeast LA parishes this evening. By midnight, rain chances will be near zero leading to mostly quiet conditions across our forecast area. HREF guidance is starting to show very low probabilities (around 10-20%) of patchy fog development after midnight through early Sunday morning mainly for areas along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor. Fog graphics will not be introduced at this time given the low probability of fog development highlighted by HREF guidance. With that in mind, shallow patchy fog will be possible particularly after dawn. Areas along and south of Hwy 84 should start to see improvement in visibility by day break Sunday. Expect nighttime temperatures to drop into the low 70s areawide. Weather conditions through Sunday morning will remain generally quiet as hi-res guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high hovering over the eastern Gulf. To the west of this high, southerly moist boundary layer advection will continue across our forecast area. With model consensus showing PWATs of 2.01in, scattered showers and t-storms will be possible Sunday afternoon with PoPs ranging between 25-40%. With the lower afternoon rain chances, heat stress concerns will continue to increase across our forecast area for Sunday with many areas reaching the 105 heat index reading mark. Areas along and west of I-55 will have the best potential to see heat indices approaching 105 degrees heading into Monday. Given afternoon highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the "Limited" risk for heat stress will continue to be highlighted in our graphics through Monday. Future adjustments to the graphics as well as heat advisories will likely be needed for portions, if not all of, the forecast area heading into Monday. /CR/ Tuesday through Friday... As we head into the new work week, model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro show the sfc high starting to gradually retrograde across the southeast CONUS. As this high begins to push north into the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA, which in turn will lead to increasing heat conditions through the extended period. Looking at current forecast trends, it appears that heat indices will be in the 105-110 range next Tuesday through Friday given daytime highs forecasted in the mid/upper 90s along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (a few spots could potentially see dewpoints in the low 80s). This will likely result in the "Limited" risk for heat stress being upgraded to an "Elevated" risk in our HWO graphics for the Tuesday/Friday timeframe. It is possible that a "Significant" risk may be introduced in future forecast updates. Furthermore, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed as well. Afternoon/early evening showers and t-storms will provide some relief from the heat Global guidance shows convection dissipating by the evening hours each day as daytime heating wanes. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Scattered showers and storms are developing across the area this afternoon. If observed within an area TAF site`s respected aerodrome, convection could reduce both ceilings and/or visibilities to MVFR status for a brief period of time. Gusty winds will be possible with the most intense storms, but frequent lighting and heavy downpours are likely with all of today`s activity. Once convection passes and/or dissipates, categories will return to VFR status, and remain as such throughout the remainder of the forecast. Winds this afternoon will be from the south southwest between 5-10 knots, becoming light from the south to calm overnight. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 94 74 94 / 20 20 10 30 Meridian 72 94 73 96 / 20 30 10 30 Vicksburg 74 94 75 95 / 10 30 0 20 Hattiesburg 74 97 74 97 / 20 30 0 40 Natchez 72 93 73 94 / 10 40 0 30 Greenville 73 93 74 94 / 10 30 10 30 Greenwood 73 94 74 95 / 10 30 10 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/19/