170
FXUS64 KJAN 270025 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
725 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The remnants of this latest disturbance are lifting off to the
north this evening. Some rain and a few embedded thunderstorms
will remain possible for the next few hours but should fade with
the loss of daytime heating. Quieter weather tonight may allow
for some patchy fog to develop in the humid air by early morning,
so will evaluate that potential this evening. Weather elements
have been updated through the daytime tomorrow, with no notable
adjustments made except to include mention of fog in the weather
element. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Significant heat will by far be the primary weather impact for
the forecast area as we go through much of the next week.

This afternoon through Sunday: The center of the subtropical high
over the southeast CONUS will move west across the forecast area
over the next few days resulting in dangerous heat stress once
again. It appears most of the area will be about at heat advisory
level Sunday and we have gone ahead and issued this, but held off
on a longer duration advisory/warning configuration. After fairly
good coverage of convective rainfall today, increased subsidence
near the high center should greatly limit convective coverage and
help to enhance the heat. The greatest heat stress however should
occur when the high center shifts to our west resulting in more
of a west to northwest low level wind trajectory. /EC/

Another disturbance pivoting around the ridge will arrive in our
region and settle as a weakness between ridging over the Southern
High Plains and just off the Eastern Seaboard as we go into mid to
late week.

This all means that rain coverage will decrease through probably
Tuesday, then rebound with deepening moisture Wednesday into late
week. And temperatures will climb to near 100 degrees by Monday
and especially Tuesday as this ridge, with its core pushing max
strength for this time of year, slides directly overhead. Expect
more impactful heat and stronger messaging will continue to be
needed for early next week, but heat will diminish a bit with
some again with the next wave in the later week time frame.
/NF/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible over parts
of the area through around 03Z Sunday, with chances for rain
quickly lowering through the remainder of the period. If skies can
clear by early morning, remaining humid air and wet ground could
lead to patches of low stratus or fog by 12Z. Prevailing VFR
conditions should return by 15Z. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  96  76  98 /  20  10   0  10
Meridian      72  96  74  98 /  10  10   0  10
Vicksburg     75  97  76  99 /  10  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   75  97  76 100 /  10  10   0  10
Natchez       74  95  74  98 /  10  20   0   0
Greenville    74  97  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
Greenwood     75  96  76  99 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

NF/EC