604
FXUS64 KJAN 130505
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Sunday through Sunday night: An upper level trough over the central
and southern Plains will try to shift east into our region but high
pressure at the surface and aloft to our southeast will
strengthen over our CWA through the day. This will lead to more
isolated to scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early
evening convection and a gradual warming trend. The 00Z SUN JAN
sounding showed a PWAT of 2.03in. Thus, a moist airmass across
our CWA will be maintained through Sunday night. With the lower
rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid
90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the
Mississippi river especially. Peak heat index values will be
around 105F again Sunday. We will continue to highlight this area
with a "Limited" for heat stress in our graphics for now. /22/

Monday through Friday:

As we head into the new work week, model consensus from both the GFS
and the Euro show the surface high starting to gradually
retrograde across the southeast CONUS. As this high begins to push
north into the region, humid conditions will persist across our
CWA, which in turn will lead to increasing heat conditions through
the extended period. Looking at current forecast trends, it
appears that heat indices will be in the 105-110 range next
Tuesday through Friday given daytime highs forecasted in the
mid/upper 90s along with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s (a few
spots could potentially see dewpoints in the low 80s). This will
likely result in the "Limited" risk for heat stress being upgraded
to an "Elevated" risk in our HWO graphics for the Tuesday-Friday
timeframe. It is possible that a "Significant" risk may be
introduced in subsequent updates. Furthermore, heat
advisories/warnings will eventually be needed. Afternoon/early
evening showers and t-storms will provide some relief from the
heat Global guidance shows convection dissipating by the evening
hours each day as daytime heating wanes. /CR/


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Isolated TSRA wl come in vcty of the nw and se TAF sites through
01Z before dissipating. Scattered TSRA were noted on radar over
the ne and may come in vcty of GTR by 02Z before dissipating.
Isolated to scattered TSRA are expected to develop again Sunday
aftn. Away from TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       95  73  94  74 /  20  10  30  10
Meridian      93  73  94  73 /  20  20  40  30
Vicksburg     93  74  93  75 /  20  10  30  10
Hattiesburg   93  74  96  75 /  40  10  40  20
Natchez       91  73  92  73 /  30  10  40  10
Greenville    94  73  92  74 /  20  10  30  20
Greenwood     93  74  94  74 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/OAJ/EC