068
FXUS64 KJAN 040242
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
942 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Unseasonably strong deep layer shear is supporting a mix of
splitting supercells this evening over mainly northern portions of
the forecast area, and at least a couple of these have appeared
intense enough to prompt severe thunderstorm warnings. A
shortwave trough crossing the area is interacting with a moist and
unstable airmass resulting in isolated to scattered discrete
storms. While deep layer shear supports supercells, the low level
shear at least is weak and not supportive of tornado potential,
however, deviant storm motions are enhancing storm inflow and
definitely can make for a non-zero threat even with what is likely
a slightly decoupled BL. Some severe threat may continue for the
next couple of hours, but as we go through the overnight, ascent
and instability should weaken enough to bring diminishing storm
intensity and coverage. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

An anomalously deep upper-level trough remains the dominant
feature over the CONUS and should remain so into this weekend.
Various shortwaves rounding the trough will keep rain chances in
the broader Deep South region through the weekend, with best
chances for rain in our forecast area being today and then Friday
Night into Sunday.

Tonight - the rain today is associated with a weak surface trough
and axis of pooled deep moisture. As afternoon and evening rain
comes to an end and clouds thin out, fog will be a concern. Have
included an "Elevated" threat for areas of dense fog across
northeast LA, and western/central MS overnight. Patchy fog is
possible elsewhere in MS and southeast AR.

As the trough axis translates eastward, high pressure from Canada
will build south into the Great Lakes region for early next week,
and upper-level ridging will begin to overspread the central
CONUS. The combo should result in drier weather next week and some
cooler weather again by early week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The primary concern will be for fog potential from late tonight
through early Thursday morning. IFR/LIFR vsby/ceiling categories
may become common at most sites in the 08-14z time frame.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail outside of this evening`s
isolated TSRA. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  92  70  95 /  40   0   0   0
Meridian      67  91  69  95 /  40  10   0   0
Vicksburg     68  93  70  95 /  30   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   69  93  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Natchez       68  91  69  94 /  30   0   0   0
Greenville    67  93  69  96 /  20   0   0   0
Greenwood     67  93  69  97 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/