Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPJAM
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:PIPESTEM CR AT PINGREE ND 3W
PGEN8 11.0 13.0 15.0 | 5 <5 12 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:JAMES R AT GRACE CITY ND 3W
GCEN8 12.0 14.0 15.0 | <5 <5 15 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 8
:JAMES R AT LA-MOURE ND
LAMN8 14.0 16.0 18.0 | <5 7 17 | <5 <5 8 | <5 <5 <5
:ELM R AT WESTPORT SD 1N
WESS2 14.0 16.0 19.0 | 5 <5 28 | <5 <5 22 | <5 <5 9
:JAMES R AT COLUMBIA SD 1S
CMBS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 | 20 15 58 | 11 11 42 | <5 6 29
:JAMES R AT STRATFORD SD 7SW
SFDS2 14.0 17.0 18.5 | 20 21 58 | 7 9 41 | <5 5 31
:SNAKE CR AT ASHTON SD 2S
SNKS2 11.5 13.0 16.0 | 7 12 53 | 6 11 53 | <5 6 43
:JAMES R AT ASHTON SD
ATNS2 13.0 14.0 16.0 | 10 11 58 | 9 9 47 | 7 6 42
:TURTLE CR AT REDFIELD SD
IDBS2 7.0 10.0 15.0 | 17 21 54 | 9 15 46 | <5 9 33
:JAMES R AT REDFIELD SD 3NE
RFDS2 20.0 22.0 25.0 | <5 9 45 | <5 8 44 | <5 6 42
:JAMES R AT HURON SD
HURS2 11.5 15.0 19.0 | 9 14 55 | <5 8 45 | <5 5 30
:JAMES R AT FORESTBURG SD 4SE
FORS2 12.0 14.5 18.0 | 12 20 59 | 9 12 46 | <5 5 29
:JAMES R AT MITCHELL SD 4SE
JRMS2 17.0 21.5 24.0 | 18 24 59 | <5 9 39 | <5 5 28
:FIRESTEEL CR AT MOUNT VERNON SD 5N
MTVS2 8.0 13.0 15.0 | 16 14 41 | 7 7 23 | <5 5 20
:JAMES R AT SCOTLAND SD 5NE
SCOS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 | 10 14 54 | <5 9 39 | <5 6 32
:JAMES R AT YANKTON SD
YNNS2 12.0 16.0 21.0 | <5 9 41 | <5 7 37 | <5 <5 27
:W FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 3WNW
PKRS2 9.0 10.0 12.0 | <5 <5 12 | <5 <5 10 | <5 <5 <5
:E FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 4NE
VRPS2 12.0 14.0 16.5 | 9 6 48 | 8 <5 40 | <5 <5 25
:VERMILLION R AT DAVIS SD 2SE
DVSS2 11.0 13.0 15.0 | 18 11 53 | 13 7 41 | <5 <5 16
:VERMILLION R AT WAKONDA SD 7ESE
WKAS2 14.0 15.5 17.0 | 15 12 53 | 12 11 46 | 10 7 40
:VERMILLION R AT VERMILLION SD 3N
VERS2 21.0 22.0 30.0 | <5 6 36 | <5 5 26 | <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 8.1/ 7.2/ 9.9/ 11.0/
:JAMES R
GCEN8 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 6.2/ 5.7/ 8.9/ 11.4/
LAMN8 7.3/ 7.3/ 7.4/ 8.4/ 8.2/ 9.3/ 11.0/
:ELM R
WESS2 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 7.9/ 7.1/ 11.1/ 14.3/
:JAMES R
CMBS2 6.2/ 6.2/ 6.2/ 13.0/ 12.7/ 16.6/ 17.2/
:JAMES R
SFDS2 7.6/ 7.6/ 7.8/ 14.0/ 12.9/ 16.7/ 17.5/
:SNAKE CR
SNKS2 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 5.8/ 4.5/ 7.7/ 13.6/
:JAMES R
ATNS2 4.5/ 4.5/ 4.6/ 9.0/ 8.3/ 13.1/ 17.3/
:TURTLE CR
IDBS2 3.1/ 3.2/ 3.4/ 4.8/ 4.4/ 9.8/ 11.2/
:JAMES R
RFDS2 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.6/ 10.5/ 8.7/ 12.4/ 19.4/
HURS2 9.3/ 9.3/ 9.5/ 10.5/ 10.2/ 11.0/ 14.5/
FORS2 4.8/ 4.8/ 5.3/ 9.2/ 8.7/ 14.1/ 15.4/
JRMS2 10.7/ 10.8/ 11.6/ 16.3/ 15.5/ 19.5/ 21.0/
:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 6.1/ 5.4/ 12.2/ 14.2/
:JAMES R
SCOS2 4.5/ 4.5/ 5.0/ 10.0/ 9.2/ 13.4/ 15.3/
YNNS2 2.9/ 2.9/ 3.2/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 9.2/ 11.5/
:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.7/ 5.1/
:E FK VERMILLION R
VRPS2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 6.9/ 6.8/ 10.4/ 16.0/
:VERMILLION R
DVSS2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.9/ 10.3/ 9.4/ 13.6/ 14.1/
WKAS2 2.0/ 2.0/ 3.6/ 11.3/ 10.3/ 16.8/ 17.2/
VERS2 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.3/ 10.4/ 9.7/ 17.3/ 20.4/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.5/
:JAMES R
GCEN8 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/
LAMN8 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/ 7.0/
:ELM R
WESS2 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.3/
:JAMES R
CMBS2 5.5/ 5.5/ 5.2/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/ 4.9/
:JAMES R
SFDS2 7.3/ 7.2/ 6.9/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.4/ 6.3/
:SNAKE CR
SNKS2 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/ 1.7/
:JAMES R
ATNS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5/ 3.5/
:TURTLE CR
IDBS2 3.1/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/ 3.0/
:JAMES R
RFDS2 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 3.4/ 3.5/ 3.4/ 3.4/
HURS2 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.2/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/ 9.1/
FORS2 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/
JRMS2 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.2/ 10.1/ 10.2/ 9.9/ 9.8/
:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2 2.3/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/ 2.1/
:JAMES R
SCOS2 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.3/ 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.0/
YNNS2 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.7/ 2.6/ 2.6/
:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2 1.0/ 1.0/ 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/ 0.8/
:E FK VERMILLION R
VRPS2 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/ 3.1/
:VERMILLION R
DVSS2 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.3/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/
WKAS2 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/
VERS2 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 2.0/
.END
$$