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FGUS73 KIWX 231216 CCA
ESFIWX

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
716 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 10.3 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 5.6 feet.


 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid February 23 2025 - May 18 2025

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    7.5  7.6  8.1  8.5  9.3 10.3 11.0


Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    9.4  9.8 10.7 11.8 13.5 14.4 15.1
Knox IN             10    7.0  7.3  7.5  7.6  8.4  9.0  9.7


Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    5.6  5.8  6.3  6.7  7.5  8.7  9.7
Mottville MI         8    5.0  5.1  5.7  6.0  7.0  8.1  8.9
Elkhart IN          24   21.2 21.3 21.9 22.4 23.4 25.1 26.1
South Bend IN      5.5    2.8  3.0  3.9  4.5  5.6  7.5  8.4
Niles MI            11    7.7  7.9  8.5  9.1 10.5 12.5 13.8


Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    4.0  4.3  4.8  5.0  6.2  7.7  9.5
Cosperville IN       6    4.9  5.0  5.3  5.8  6.3  7.0  7.7


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Away from Lake Michigan, snow depths were generally between
a trace and 3 inches. Snow depths within 25 miles of Lake
Michigan were generally between 3 inches and a foot. Soil
Moisture remained below to much below normal.


...Weather Outlook...
ENSO is forecast to transition from a weak La Nina to a
Neutral pattern during this outlook period. There is not a
discernible signal for either above or below normal temperatures.
CPC is leaning above normal for total rain outlook. Normal rainfall
amounts through the middle of May are near 9 inches.


...River Conditions...
River conditions remain well below flood stage. Some ice could
form ice jams as temperatures rise this upcoming week, but any
flooding from ice jams should be brief and local.


...Overall Flood Risk...
Given the dry soil state with below normal rainfall, the overall
 flood risk is expected to be below normal into May.


...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary
roads.

The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued on
March 14, 2025 for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins.


$$