003
FXUS63 KIWX 172343
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
743 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight and Monday, with the next notable chance of showers
  and thunderstorms (40-50%) late Monday night into Tuesday.

- Remaining hot and humid through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

The stable layer left behind from morning`s shower and thunderstorms
has thus far fended off any redevelopment. A weak stationary front
is located along US 30 corridor and has been home to fair weather
cumulus bubbling up this afternoon as surface capping erodes. Aside
from this front, very little forcing to speak of for the remainder
of the afternoon. As a result, will carry a dry forecast through
much of Monday.

A low currently of the eastern Dakotas tracks east and arrives to
Lake Michigan Monday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may be
ongoing in the morning across WI and IL in the morning, but our well-
talked about ridge will remain in play. The surface low tracks well
north of our area leaving the surface fronts and the upper-level low
as our main forcing mechanism for any thunderstorms. The warm front
lifts in early Monday morning while the cold front moves through
Tuesday night. Mesoscale factors may throw wrenches at the overall
coverage of showers/storms. Thus, I didn`t too cute with POPs during
that timeframe. Look for increasing chances of showers and storms
Monday night through at least Tuesday morning. With respect to any
severe weather risk, shear continues to be a limiting factor while
instability appears greatest over IL (Monday evening) and far
northwest IN (Tuesday afternoon).

A cooler and less humid air mass settles in starting Wednesday with
high pressure taking shape over the Great Lakes. Some spurious POPs
linger from the in-house blend Wednesday, but high pressure ought to
suppress that 20% chance. A reinforcing dose of cooler air is still
in the cards for this weekend, preceded by another cold front with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

At 2330Z, convection was quiet over northern Indiana. A weak
cool front extended from FDY to SMD (Smith Field) to just east
of SBN. Winds should shift to the east at SBN very early in the
TAF period as the trof drifts south. Showers and storms are not
expected through the period. Winds should stay under 10 knots.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Skipper