660
FXUS63 KIWX 090744
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost possible again Friday morning.

- Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above normal this
  weekend into next week.

- Rain will remain sparse through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Overall not a lot of changes to the previous forecast with 2
main areas of focus lying with one more night of frost potential
and what, if any precip, occurs with an upper level wave and
associated sfc boundary Friday afternoon into Friday night
(maybe early Saturday).

Light NE flow continues to advect mid 30 dewpoints and
subsequently allowing temperatures to slowly fall with NE
sections to similar levels with this trend expected to persist
through sunrise. No changes to the current Frost Advisory.
Temps will recover during the day, climbing back into the low to
mid 60s. Although temps will warm, dewpoints will likely remain
in the 30s, likely setting the stage for one more night of
patchy to areas of frost with the greatest focus east of US-31
where lows should dip into the mid 30s. As a result, additional
headlines will likely be needed, but consensus of surrounding
offices was to hold off on new issuance given the current
headlines in place.

Closed upper low will make its way from northern Saskatchewan
this morning to N Lower MI by 6Z Sat. Models continue to have a
bit of an uptick in precip chances possibly as early as Fri
afternoon far NW, with main focus possibly 21Z Fri to 6Z Sat.
Although PWATs do increase to 0.75 to locally 1", much of the
moisture is in the mid and upper levels with a somewhat drier
layer below 900 mb. Far NW area soundings to suggest at least a
brief window of saturation, but overall QPF and coverage
warrants no more than chc pops. Models try to linger some slgt
chc pops overnight and into Sat morning, but this is likely
overdone. Highs Sat are a few degrees lower than previous
forecast due to cloud cover and slight drop in 850 mb temps, but
still very seasonable. The cooler temps will linger into Sunday
as the upper low slowly fills and shifts east.

Temperatures will quickly transition to above normal again for
at least Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 70s as
upper level heights increase, but the area will remain on the
edge of the ridge so models continue to show spurious chances
for showers that are likely overdone.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A large surface high pressure area with a center near KAPN was
helping to keep a northeast to east flow over northern Indiana.
These winds were reflected in the SBN and FWA TAFs. The observed
and forecast soundings continue to be much too dry to support
precipitation or even clouds. Patchy shallow fog and ground fog
are possible with deep radiational cooling, but any fog is not
expected to be operationally significant at the terminals.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-
     277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Skipper