337
FXUS63 KIWX 061114
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
614 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog continue early this morning, especially along
  and west of the Interstate 69 corridor.

- Record or near record high temperatures today.

- There is a 20-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms today
  with the higher chances from northwest Indiana into southwest
  Lower Michigan. A few storms could produce some small hail
  wind gusts to 40 mph.

- A lull in greater rain chances expected this evening, but
  chances increase late tonight into Saturday with another
  round of showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible late tonight through mid afternoon
  Saturday with the potential main threats of isolated wind
  gusts in excess of 50 mph and isolated marginally severe hail.

- Dry weather returns for Sunday and Monday, but more showers
  and thunderstorms expected for Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

A low level frontal boundary this morning extends from south
central Illinois into east central Indiana. Areas of dense fog
have steadily built southward over past several hours across
northwest Indiana, with a pocket of vsbys in the 1 to 3 mile
range still holding across extreme northeast Indiana as of 08Z
where near sfc warm front has made slightly better northward
progress. It is possible an additional areal expansion of the
dense fog advisory will be needed across far NE IN/NW OH, but
the duration of dense fog potential should be limited here as
warm front makes better northward progress after daybreak. Areas
along and north of US 6 corridor should have the longest
duration of dense fog this morning, but would expect vsbys to
improve more rapidly in the 14Z-16Z timeframe in comparison to
yesterday given warm frontal progression.

Otherwise today, warm conditions in store as fast moving warm front
places all of the forecast area in the warm sector with record or
near record high temperatures from 70 to 75 most areas. Regional
radar mosaic this morning indicates a complex of showers and
thunderstorms across much of northern MO/western IA with some
additional less organized showers extending back into southeast
IN/southern OH along the eastward extension of low level
theta-e boundary. As this boundary rapidly shifts northward
today, isolated- scattered showers and storms will be possible
across the area, but other than advective forcing, large scale
mid-upper level synoptic forcing is lacking. An exception to
this could be across the western Great Lakes and into far NW
IN/SW Lower Michigan where an MCV type feature may kick out of
the IA/northern MO convection this morning. Some backing of mid
level steering flow would still suggest most favorable track of
small scale mid level convective vort would be across NW IL into
west central Lower MI. Will maintain highest chance PoPs across
the far northwest which will likely have some enhanced
shear/forcing with this feature. Overall severe threat may be
mitigated today by better forcing and shear across western Great
Lakes being slightly displaced from nose of better instability
just to the south.

Some isolated convection could linger this evening across the north,
but overall a lull in rain chances still appears on track for mid-
late evening into the early overnight. Guidance now remains fairly
consistent in timing better pre-frontal trough forcing/moisture axis
in the 09Z-18Z Saturday from west to east across the area. Late
timing tonight is one factor not supportive of severe weather,
but nature of thermo profiles with low 60`s dew points and
magnitude of pooled low level moisture along pre-frontal trough
could compensate. Areas roughly west of I-69 remain in Day 1
Marginal Severe Risk for wind/hail. Higher res guidance does
differ considerably on convective coverage toward 12Z Saturday,
with indications of best potential for any organized convection
across Lower MI in closer proximity to shearing, positively
tilted upper level trough. Given low LCLs and good hodograph
curvature in lowest 2km, cannot completely discount isolated
tornado potential, but overall limited instability and potential
of convection to be slightly elevated yield very low
confidence. Additional storms may develop Saturday afternoon
along primary cold front once pre-frontal trough shifts east,
but confidence is also low for this period as a good deal of
uncertainty remains with how well mixed low level thermo
environment will be. A large magnitude of line normal shear
could help to keep any cells along cold front more discrete, but
have a suspicion better low level mixing/weaker instability
setup may end up verifying which would limit severe risk with
cold front later in afternoon. Otherwise, windy conditions still
expected Saturday with a potential of peak gusts to around 35
mph.

A quieter pattern sets up for Sunday with a low level thermal trough
settling across the area although temps still expected to be well
above normal. The quiet conditions continue into Monday as local
area is split by stronger northern stream synoptic wave across
Ontario/Quebec and cut-off upper low across Baja of CA. Medium range
guidance still depicts stronger eastern Pacific jet allowing for
frontal wave to develop along strong pre-existing boundary for the
Tue-Wed period with the potential of a more widespread synoptic
rainfall with some embedded storms.  Still some low confidence in
details on track of sfc wave and any available instability
magnitudes, but overall large scale support still gives some
credence to blended likely/categorical PoPs. Temps should warm once
again to around the 70 degree mark by Monday with a transition to
much cooler temperatures heading toward Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

A warm front still remains over US 24 this morning, which means
much of the area is experiencing widespread dense fog in the
vicinity of and north of the front. LIFR ceilings and
visibilities will continue through late this morning.
Visibilities and ceilings gradually improve to high end IFR
after daybreak and fog should lift later this morning by 14-15Z.
As the warm front lifts north, a complex of rain and embedded
storms will lift through the Midwest this afternoon. Chances for
rain and a few storms are highest in NW Indiana and far SW Lower
Michigan between 16-21Z today, where MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible. Confidence is low on if rain and
storms will impact the terminals (it may miss the area entirely
to the northwest), so have kept chances confined to mainly
PROB30 groups. Southerly winds will become increasingly gusty
today ahead of an incoming cold front; gusts as high as 25-30
kts will be possible this evening and into the early overnight
hours. Towards the end of the TAF forecast period, some LLWS
will be possible ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Rain
and embedded storms will be possible once again by 03-06Z Sunday
as the cold front sweeps from west to east.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
     116-203-204-216.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002-
     004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ078>081-
     177-277.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Johnson