214
FXUS63 KIWX 100714
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
314 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak front may bring some light showers or sprinkles to
  areas along and north of the Toll Road later this afternoon
  and evening.

- Much of the next 7 days will feature near to occasionally
  somewhat above normal temperatures with the warmest days
  likely occuring Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Light SE flow and slowing increasing 850 mb temps seem to be keeping
temperatures in check with everyone still in the low to mid
40s. Suspect frost potential will be very isolated if at all
through sunrise, but no changes planned for the headlines.

Focus then shifts to a weak disturbance, currently located from SW
Iowa to central Wisconsin. A broken lines of showers and even a few
storms were drifting east, assisted by some elevated instability.
The greatest coverage of the storms resided in SW/S central IA. With
time this instability weakens as do the showers, leading to low
confidence in any measurable precipitation falling in the 21Z
to 3Z period as the trough approaches. Models generally
confirming this with fairly saturated soundings AOA 800 mb, then
a dry layer below that. As a result of these factors, pops have
been lowered even more with at best low chc in the far NW. QPF
will be limited to a few hundredths at best. From 6Z Sat on, a
few sprinkles or light showers may linger in S lower MI.

Next feature of interest will be closed upper low which is well
depicted on water vapor in SW Ontario will drop ESE, grazing NE Lake
Huron by 6Z Sat and then reaching western NY by 00Z Sun. Main
impacts into the weekend will be a slowing of the arrival of warmer
temps and a shift in winds back to NW and N, which may stir up waves
some in SE Lake MI.

Modest upper level ridging will try to bring in warmer air, at least
briefly with highs in the low to mid 70s for Mon and Tue before
it flattens out as a weak, moisture starved boundary drops
south. Main impacts from this appear to be a return to more
seasonable temps in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the period,
with mainly increasing high-mid level clouds to contend with.
Warm air will advect in towards the late morning with a passing
warm front, with E-SE flow shifting south-southwest through the
period. A cold front approaches KSBN around 00z, then crosses
through KFWA by Saturday morning. Light showers are possible
along this front, but moisture is lacking so confidence in any
specifics is low. For now, have VCSH at KSBN from 21z-03z--
though don`t expect much of an impact at the terminal from
these. Left out of KFWA for this issuance as best chances
arrive around or just after the end of the TAF period. Will add
greater detail with the 12z TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-
     013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ079>081.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD