811
FXUS63 KIWX 042341
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
741 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray shower or storm possible into early this evening.
  Severe weather is not expected.

- Hot and humid with scattered showers and storms Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday evening.

- Less humid and primarily dry Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Isolated showers and storms remain possible (20%) this afternoon
into early this evening, mainly over our far northeast zones
(Hillsdale MI/Wauseon OH) near an eastward progressing outflow
boundary. Mainly dry and hot elsewhere with upper ridging
building in, though cannot rule out a stray late day shower
(10%) near any outflow/lake breeze boundaries.

For Saturday, the upper ridge will be overhead promoting dry and hot
conditions with low level southwest winds picking up a bit on the
backside of sfc high pressure. The ridge does break down in response
to an approaching shortwave and associated cold front Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Primarily dry and warm conditions should
prevail, though there remains a low chance for showers to sneak into
western areas Sunday morning along a potential pre-frontal feature.

The cold front sags southeast through the area Sunday afternoon-
evening with scattered showers and storms. The Kinematic profiles
will be unimpressive given the dampening and disorganized nature to
the mid level pv tracking east through the Great Lakes. Moisture
pools along the front however with PWATs nearing 2" for at least
some scattered convection during the afternoon and evening in this
hot and muggy air mass. Locally heavy rainfall rates and wet
microbursts capable of 40 mph plus gusts appear be the primary
threats.

The bulk of available model guidance builds in high pressure across
the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday with the active frontal boundary
and deeper moisture settling just south of the forecast area. The
result would be lower humidity levels and dry conditions for most,
though still retained NBM`s low chance PoPs mainly along and
southeast of the US 24 corridor given limited ensemble support (20-
30%) that stall the front here on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites tonight. SCT-BKN
ceilings of around 12k-25k ft will persist through the evening,
particularly at KFWA as a decaying MCV moves through the area.
Winds will be predominantly out of the south-southwest through
Saturday, with some variability possible as we become nearly
calm at times. Gusts up to around 20 mph are possible at KSBN by
Sat afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ020.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...MCD