768
FXUS63 KIWX 011621
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1221 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid weather Friday into this weekend.

- Dangerous swim conditions are expected at southeastern lake
  Michigan beaches through this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A much more peaceful forecast in store for the next several days
as high pressure allows for cooler and much less humid air
to settle over the area. Some smoke may be near the surface in
some locations tonight with some vsbys in the 3 to 5 SM range in
HZ or BR. This could be some smoke being detected or a semi
moist boundary later after all of the rain that has occurred
over the past several days. Opted not to include any haze or
smoke in the grids for now with HRRR Smoke model showing if any
is out there, it should improve over the next several hours or
transition more above the sfc.

Although the high will elongate somewhat with time into next
week, chances for showers and thunderstorms should remain south
of the area. Med range models continue to show spurious, mainly
diurnally driven slgt chc to chc pops across southern areas as
low level moisture tries to increase. Will leave the pops in,
but they are likely overdone and suspect will be slowly removed
with time.

On the marine/beach side...a high swim risk continues for at
least a few more hours as wave heights continue to hover in the
4 to 6 ft range with periods of 6 to 7 seconds. A slow downward
trend is noted in both winds and wave heights, but there is some
indication that there could be a bit of a wave increase this
afternoon which could keep the swim risk in high. Based on local
calculations of the risks and lack of actual reports overnight,
will err on the side of caution and extend the Beach Hazard
Statement for Berrien and LaPorte counties to 21Z today and let
the day shift assess the lifeguard reports as well as cam and
buoy data. For now, will allow the Small Craft Advisory to
expire at 12Z.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Broad sfc ridging will become entrenched across the Great Lakes
this period and beyond into next week ensuring fair wx and
visual flight rule.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-
     203-204-216.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ177-277.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...T