Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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749 FXUS63 KIWX 191850 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 250 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers during the middle of this upcoming week will do little to ease the ongoing severe drought over much of the area. - Warming trend will continue into the early parts of the week with much above normal temperatures by Monday. The potential exists for some 80 degree high temperatures Monday across portions of the area.| && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 A rather stagnant upper level air pattern will continue through the weekend, but slow progression in this pattern, namely with the cut off upper level low across southwest CONUS, will allow a continued moderation in temperatures into Monday. For tonight into Sunday, little in the way of weather concerns to talk about today. Extensive low level anticyclone centered across TN Valley into the Mid Atlantic states will slowly sink southeast into Sunday. This will allow for some weak low level height gradient to become established across the southern Great Lakes tonight. Weak low level warm advection on western periphery of this anticyclone and some tightening of low level height gradient should allow for some moderation in min temps tonight. However, persistent dry nature to airmass should still allow for lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Favored cool, low-lying locations could make a run at the mid 30s again, particularly across southeast parts of the area. Broad, deep layer subsidence to continue to Sunday which paired with broad modest westerly flow regime will allow for continued moderation in low level temperatures. Low level thermal progs would suggest max temps on the order of 2 to 5 degrees warmer for Sunday compared to today with highs in the mid 70s. For Monday, guidance remains consistent in depicting onset of a little more progression in upper level wave pattern with eventual northeast ejection of upper low across central high Plains. Upper ridge axis is expected to reach southern Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley Monday afternoon with continued moderation of low level temperatures. Mixing heights still appear somewhat limited to around 900 mb Monday afternoon , but warmer low level temps and potential of some superadiabats with the dry airmass/ground could support highs approaching the 80 degree mark. Extent of high temps Monday will be somewhat dependent on timing of any increased high cloudiness during the afternoon however. For Tuesday, attention will turn to evolution of upstream upper low, with continued indications that this system will continue to fill/dampen as it makes its way across the southern Great Lakes. Synoptic ascent should be relatively tempered across the area as DPVA will be somewhat muted by its vertically stacked nature and even some isentropic descent. Some slight chance PoPs may still be in order late Tuesday afternoon/evening during strongest upper forcing with some mid level moisture return, but relatively dry subcloud layer and progressive nature of forcing will not allow this precip chance to amount to much. For Wednesday-Friday, medium range guidance still suggests larger scale upper level wave will ride western CONUS upper ridge and dig across Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Some question still persists regarding duration of any significant moisture advection ahead of this system, with some concern that veering of low level flow may cut off better moisture advection with this forcing. Given moisture questions, and the fact stronger upper forcing may bypass the area across the Great Lakes/northeast CONUS, will continue with low to mid range chance PoPs Wed/Wed evening, especially for northern locations. Below normal temperatures should build in for Thursday, but this cooler air will likely be short-lived as a transition back to less flow amplitude is expected by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure centered east of the area, will continue to bring light winds and no flight concerns for the period and beyond. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Marsili AVIATION...Fisher