172
FXUS63 KIWX 040852
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
352 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing drizzle to end before daybreak.

- Lows near zero tonight with wind chills -5 to -15.

- Light lake effect snow this weekend should total an inch or
  less accumulation accompanied by few if any impacts.

- Light snow is likely at times this upcoming week. The snow may
  be mixed with rain. Some minor impacts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Patchy freezing drizzle was ending from the northwest to the
southeast. The BUFKIT soundings do support a snow mix with freezing
drizzle given the top of the cloud in the DGZ. The remaining light
precipitation should end by daybreak with limited impacts.

Temperatures will try to moderate through Saturday, but are
expected to remain some 10 to 15 degrees below normal as the
cold pattern continues. Conditions overall for lake effect snow
do not appear favorable given a limited southwest to west fetch
(although a brief northwest fetch is likely). However, Lake
Michigan water temperatures remain very mild for this time of
year with readings in the 40s (the latest GLERL analysis suggest
mid lake temps close to 10C), .

Otherwise, a very cold signal continues with the GFS. The
latest (00Z) run continues to advertise a large negative 500 mb
height anomaly developing across the Upper Great Lakes region
into southern Canada next week. At the surface during this time,
850 mb temperatures will likely reach -12C as another arctic
intrusion reaches the area. Local data indicates Ft Wayne has
had the coldest last 7 day period (from Nov 27 to December 3rd
in nearly 50 years) with an average temperature of 24.2 degrees.
This cold pattern is expected to continue for several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A weak cold front currently bisects the area from southwest to
northeast. As the front pushes through KFWA and heads southeast
in the next few hours, scattered freezing drizzle will persist.
After 08-09Z,  Dry conditions will prevail through
today and tonight. Ceilings will gradually rise from low end
MVFR to low end VFR by daybreak, although skies will remain
overcast as more clouds advect in off of Lake Michigan. Winds
will remain out of the northwest this morning around 10 kts
before becoming light and variable this afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Johnson