201
FXUS63 KIWX 232230
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms into this evening.

- Cooler air arrives Sunday into next week with highs only in the
  mid 60s to near 70 Monday and Tuesday.

- Periodic chances (10-40%) for light showers late Sunday through
  Tuesday, mainly across far northern IN and lower MI.

- Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday evening for
  Lake Michigan beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Cold front to slip southeast through the area late this afternoon
into this evening under steady height falls aloft. Narrow low level
theta-e ridge preceding this front is resulting in some weak diurnal
instability. This will bring the chance for showers and storms,
though coverage/chances/intensity appear limited (20-30) given
the relatively weak frontal convergence and limited
instability/moisture.

Cooler, early fall-like, conditions remain the wx story Sunday
through at least the middle of next week as anomalous troughing
settles in under a stalled upper low near James Bay. Several
vorticity lobes will pivot through in this northwest flow regime
with periodic chances for scattered showers late Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday, mainly across far northern IN and lower MI as the
lake activates with 850 mb temp/lake differences pushing the mid-
upper teens celsius. Somewhat breezy and partly cloudy otherwise,
with highs on Monday and Tuesday struggling to reach 70F. A gradual
warmup, yet still below normal, then for the second half of the week
as troughing eases eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Cold front should clear KSBN by issuance and will move through
KFWA around 01-02z with a wind shift to wnw, though magnitude of
the wind will be limited with loss of better diurnal mixing.
Showers and possibly some thunder will likely be in the vicinity
of KFWA with the frontal passage. VFR/dry otherwise with west-
northwest winds picking up late morning/afternoon with gusts
around 20 knots.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Steinwedel