379
FXUS63 KIWX 111049
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
649 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to
  lower 90s and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

- A few chances for showers and storms this week. The first
  chances will begin today for the mainly northwest portions of
  the CWA as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.
  Better chances expected across the area will be Tuesday into
  Wednesday as the front moves through. Confidence remains low
  on exact timing and locations to be impacted.

- Heat and humidity returns next weekend as ridging begins to
  build back into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The stubborn ridging has continued to hold on and has been slow
to progress south and eastward. Made some changes to the ongoing
forecast with this fact in mind. Pushed back precipitation
chances by several hours which may end up not being enough, but
with the possibility of a few showers/storms developing further
south and west and moving northeastward into the area this
morning did not push back timing further. The timing being
pushed back will also allow for Tuesday to still remain
hot/humid especially for the southeastern portions of the
forecast area with the slower progression of the cool front.

Did not change much further out as the better chances of
showers/storms still looks to be the Tuesday into the Wednesday
time period with the frontal boundary passage southeastward
through the CWA. The brief reprieve from the hotter temperatures
still looks good on Wednesday and Thursday before broad ridging
over the southern CONUS looks to build north and eastward into
the region beginning Friday. Hot and humid conditions return
once again for Saturday and Sunday. Highs again getting back
into the upper 80s and low 90s and dew points pushing back into
the 70s beginning Saturday through the weekend. The
heat/humidity may even stick around into the beginning of next
week, however still a bit of uncertainty to the timing of a
trough over the northern Plains pushing southeastward into the
Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Few changes were made for the 12Z TAFs. Still quiet and dry
here locally, although clouds have started to increase in
northwestern Indiana as a stalled frontal boundary off to our
west slowly pushes eastward. Clouds will slowly progress east
throughout the day. VFR ceilings should persist through much of
the day today. There are low chances (20-30%) for widely
scattered showers and storms late this afternoon into the
evening; recent model guidance has trended much drier but can`t
rule out a few pop-up, very hit or miss showers and storms. The
best chances will likely be between 18Z to 03Z with potential
for MVFR ceilings and visibilities should any heavy downpours or
storms impact either of the terminals. Have kept the previous
PROB30 groups given that confidnece on timing and location of
any precipitation today is low. After sunset, winds will
become light and any shower/storm activity should diminish.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Johnson