881
FXUS63 KIWX 230447
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1147 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending warmer with high temperatures in the 40s and low 50s
  by Monday and Tuesday.

- A few systems to bring chances (20-40%) of some light rain
  Monday night night through Wednesday.

- Temperatures cooling back to near seasonable levels Thursday
  and Friday with a slight chance (20%) of snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Progressive northwest flow eventually displaces high pressure over
the Southeast by midweek. Until then, return flow from said ridge
will promote  While a mild forecast remains in
the cards through Midweek, I am concerned this period could be
subject to further scrutiny in the days ahead refreshing
warming trend to begin the week. Warm air advection is maximized
Sunday and Monday amid westerly 850-mb flow and rising 500-mb
heights in the wake of an omega block shifting east over
Ontario. A weak, moisture-starved disturbance ripples through
the upper Great Lakes Sunday evening bringing only increased
cloudiness to the area. High temperatures Sunday make a run for
40, then 50 Monday.

The next shortwave ripples through northwest flow Monday night,
threatening to bring cold air advection back to the area and a
chance for rain (20-40%). Guidance varies somewhat with the
strength of the shortwave and its impact on our advertised
warmth Tuesday into Wednesday. Neutral advection, as advertised
in some members, could permit mild air to continue. The NAM is a
cold outlier on Tuesday while guidance is in good agreement for
mild temperatures Wednesday amid quick, brief, southwesterly
flow ahead of yet another impulse.

Beyond midweek, high confidence in a return to winter-like
temperatures as Arctic high pressure becomes centered over the
Canadian Prairie, its influence spreading east and south through
the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A weak upper level trof will bring some mid level clouds to
northern Indiana during the 24 hr TAF period. At the surface, a
generally weak pressure gradient will not be able to support
winds much above 10 knots. VFR weather will continue to prevail.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD/Skipper