909
FXUS63 KIWX 121147
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
647 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will bring a wintry mix to the area this
  afternoon into the overnight hours. Snow and ice accumulations
  will make for difficult travel conditions in time for this
  afternoon and evening commute.

- Best chances today for the greatest snowfall amounts (3-6
  inches) will be northwestern portions of the CWA while the
  better chances for freezing rain (up to a quarter of an inch)
  will be southeast portions of the CWA

- There is the potential for another round of wintry
  precipitation and hazardous travel late Friday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Some light snow showers have developed this morning ahead of
the incoming system that is currently located over central OK
and will quickly move northeastward into the region by early
afternoon. With the track of the system moving through northern
IN this will divide our CWA with mainly snowfall to the
northwest of the track and a wintry mix mainly to the southeast
portions of our forecast area. Snowfall totals of about 3 inches
expected for a line from White County IN northeast to Hillsdale
County MI with areas southeast of this line seeing lesser
amounts of snowfall and better chances for a wintry mix
including some freezing rain where amounts could get up to a
0.25 inch. Northwest of this line will see snowfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches. Currently have winter weather advisories in place
to address this potential. The afternoon commute will likely
become hazardous especially in the areas where the freezing
rain sets up. Slow down and plan to give yourself extra time to
reach your destination. Highs today in the upper 20s to mid
30s.

Overnight into Thursday morning light snow showers with some
slight lake enhancement associated with the northwesterly flow
on the back side of the low circulation for mainly far northern
IN and southern MI counties. Lows in the lower 20s on Thursday
morning and afternoon highs in the upper 20s to around 30
degrees but falling through the remainder of the afternoon.
Remaining snow showers will subside by Thursday afternoon and
colder/drier northwesterly flow allowing for clearing skies.
Snowfall amounts on Thursday will be less than a half an inch.
Lows on Friday morning dropping into the single digits.

Weak ridging will move through on Friday and allowing for some
synoptic warming with highs in the low 20s for northeastern
parts of the area and low 30s for the southern portions of the
area. Dry weather will continue through at least early evening
when the next system associated with a deep trough over the
central CONUS. This system looks to once again bring snow
showers at the onset on Friday evening and become a wintry mix
on Saturday morning into the evening. Highs on Saturday in the
mid to upper 30s. Colder air begins to push in Saturday night
and a return to all snowfall will take place by Sunday morning
in the northwesterly flow on the backside of the low pressure.
Some residual snow showers will continue through Sunday. Lows
in the low 20s on Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday will be in the
mid to upper 20s and temperatures again falling through the
evening with lows on Monday morning in the single digits.
With the cold northwesterly flow in place, chances of lake
effect snow showers will continue into Monday. Highs on Monday
will only get into the teens. Cold continues into the middle of
the week with highs each day only getting into the upper teens
and lows dropping into the single digits. Periods of snow
showers will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

A surface low will track southeast of the area today and bring
a wintry mix to northern Indiana. At SBN, the precipitation
should be mainly snow. At FWA, a snow/freezing rain and sleet is
likely. Updated the TAFs with the most recent expectations.
Conditions should start to improve after 06Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this
     afternoon to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for INZ005>009-
     012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
     216.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Skipper