371
FXUS63 KIWX 212345
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain continues this evening, mainly south of Highway 6.

- Continued seasonably mild through Tuesday with highs mainly in
  the 50s.

- Turning colder for Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

A cold front, located from Chicago to north of Detroit, will sink
slowly south and then stall out. A quasi-stationary front was
located along the Ohio river. An upper level wave and sfc reflection
will track along the front through tonight bringing continued rain
chances to central/southern IL/IN/OH. The big question remains how
far north the precipitation may make it as the cold front acts
as a wall for the better lift. Have made some minor adjustments
to pops, but highest pops remain generally along and south of
US-24.

As the low passes to the east later tonight, skies will finally
begin to clear from west to east with sunshine returning for the
first time in several days for many spots. Modest CAA may limit
highs somewhat (mid 40s to near 50) on Saturday with a larger push
of warm air Sunday into next week with highs well into the 50s
through Tuesday.

A closed upper low will eject out of the Four Corners region late in
the weekend and dampen somewhat as the energy begins to phase with a
northern stream trough. Models still varying on degree and location
of the phasing and subsequent impacts to the area. What is at least
clear is one or more period of showers as early as Monday night,
lingering into Tuesday. Thermal profiles easily support all rain
with the cold air lagging behind the main area of precip. Many
questions remain as to how cold we will get as well as potential for
any lake effect.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

A low pressure system passes by to the south of the area overnight
and into Saturday providing moisture to the area as well as times of
scattered rain. This rain is expected to upset the inversion in
place and cause flight conditions to moderate back to VFR early in
the period at FWA. We`ll have to watch for some haze to return at
FWA if it does stop raining at FWA ahead of the vort max moving
through, but will leave it out of this issuance due to the rain
probably lingering and removing this possibility. A wave passing to
the north of the area late in this TAF period blemishes the clear
skies that take over Saturday with some mid level cloud decks.

Northerly winds veer around to southwesterly by the end of
period as the low leaves. Expect winds to stay below 10 kts
sustained through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller