197
FXUS63 KIWX 050534
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
134 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extended period of dry weather persists into next week.

- Warmer conditions this weekend followed by cooler (near normal)
  temperatures early next week.

- Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires Sunday afternoon
  due to dry, mild and breezy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Weak front associated with a low amplitude shortwave tracking
through the Great Lakes is doing nothing more than bringing some mid-
high level cloud cover and slightly cooler temps to the area.
Subsidence in wake of this upper level wave then allows a low level
anticyclone to build east through the Great Lakes tonight into
Saturday morning with clearing skies. Temps will recover well into
the 70s (near 80 west) Saturday afternoon as warm advection ramps up
in advance of a deeper mid level trough approaching the Upper
Midwest. South-southeast winds could gust up to near 20 knots late
in the day west of I-69.

The relatively deep upper trough continues its eastward progression
through the Great Lakes late Saturday night into Sunday with a cold
frontal passage bringing breezy conditions. A pre-frontal EML lifts
in over a developing ~50 kt low level jet Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Lacking moisture transport within this jet, and
northward bypass of more favorable dcva/ascent, suggests another dry
frontal passage, though cannot completely rule out a shower/storm
along/north of the Michigan border. Post-frontal drying, gusty winds
and relatively mild temperatures continue to hint at an elevated
fire risk for brush/field fires otherwise Sunday afternoon. Cooler
(yet still near to above normal) and remaining dry then into next
week with high pressure generally in control under northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Winds maintain an easterly component through the TAF period, but
will become more southerly after starting more northerly as a warm
front lifts northward through the area during this TAF period. Sfc
winds are still relatively active posting around 5 kts on both SBN
and FWA this evening. This may factor into restricting overall fog
development this morning. NAM forecast soundings indicate a low
level inversion may form at FWA, but fog may be restricted to
just patchy ground fog Saturday morning. As the warm front lifts
northward, mid level cloudiness will be most possible at SBN
with higher CIGs at FWA and, as such, expect VFR conditions
through the period at both sites.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller